Showing posts with label us house. Show all posts
Showing posts with label us house. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

INSIDER SPECULATION: Is House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi Trying to Fend Off Potential Rise of Rep. Steny Hoyer?

Last Friday, Politico sparked speculation about the future of Democratic leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives. Last May we reported on rumors of a potential retirement from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and we noted that Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina was weighing a challenge to Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland. But Politico is now reporting that Pelosi is indicating she wants to move leadership elections to December, as opposed to immediately after the November 6 election. This has pundits speculating on her motives. Read excerpts below from Politico and The Washington Post for context:
POLITICO: This time, Nancy Pelosi really has people wondering. By delaying House Democratic leadership elections until after Thanksgiving, she’s spurred speculation about whether she is going to stay atop the caucus....

But Democratic insiders say Pelosi’s move means one of two things: She’s getting out of leadership and wants to give someone else a chance to organize a movement against Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the long-time number two; or she’s simply buying time to consider her future if Democrats fall short of the majority.

And here's The Washington Post's take:
WASHINGTON POST: Word that the House Democratic leader, Nancy Pelosi , wants to move the date of the party’s leadership elections to Dec. 5 has sparked intense speculation on the Hill. The vote is usually held the week after the general election....

Loop Fans may recall that, two years ago, after the Great Thumping that relegated the D’s to the minority, Pelosi quashed an effort to hold the leadership elections in December.

So the leadership votes were held the week after the election, leaving no time for a real challenge to coalesce, and Pelosi crushed now-retiring Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.). So if Pelosi really wanted to run again, you’d think she would want that same short campaign time.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

CD6: National Pundits Rate Race Between John Delaney & Rep. Roscoe Bartlett // PLUS: Bill Clinton to Host Delaney Fundraiser

UPDATE: The Washington Post has now endorsed John Delaney in an editorial that contains harsh criticism of Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's record (excerpt below):
WASHINGTON POST:  We endorse Mr. Delaney.... In his 10 terms in office, the folksy Mr. Bartlett has not been the most dogmatic Republican on Capitol Hill.... Yet on the fiscal and budgetary issues that have paralyzed Washington, Mr. Bartlett has marched in lockstep with his party’s most doctrinaire elements. He has been a champion of the tea party, refusing to raise taxes under any circumstances, opposing Obamacare and stimulus spending to jump-start the economy....

Mr. Delaney is a newcomer to politics, but he is exceptionally well-versed in domestic issues.... Mr. Bartlett, after 20 years, is something very different: an ideologue who has become a part of the problem in Washington and in Congress. 

Below Maryland Juice provides a quick update on the state of the 6th Congressional District race between Democrat John Delaney & incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett. The hyper-fast news cycle is currently focused on the fact that Delaney didn't vote in two elections in 2006 and 2008. But today, the oddsmakers still think that Bartlett is likely to be ousted from his seat. See a few news items below:

JUICE #1: NATIONAL JOURNAL RATES ROSCOE BARTLETT'S SEAT 3RD MOST LIKELY TO FLIP IN THE NATION - Today, the oddsmakers at the National Journal rated Maryland's 6th Congressional District seat the third most likely in the nation to switch from one party to the other (excerpt below):
NATIONAL JOURNAL: For the first time in four cycles, no wave is emerging for either side, and that's making the landscape a little trickier to judge than in recent times.... In our rankings, we consider the candidates' fundraising ability; public and private polling; months of our cumulative reporting and analysis; and, of course, our own gut feelings.... Without further ado, the districts we expect to be competitive this cycle, ranked in order of most likely to change partisan control today (and with last month's rankings noted):

3. (4) MD-06 (R, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett): If you know any Republicans not employed by Bartlett who think he's going to win, we'd love to hear from them.

JUICE #2: NYT NOTES TEA PARTY SUPPORT IS A LIABILITY FOR ROSCOE BARTLETT - The main reason Bartlett is in trouble, is because after redistricting he ended up with a district that Obama carried by several points -- mostly thanks to a large chunk of new liberal Montgomery County voters. But his love for Tea Party politics is now making his re-election extremely difficult (if not impossible). GOP Chair Alex Mooney must be excited to see the seat he covets is looking more and more available every day. The New York Times today noted that throughout the nation Tea Party favorites like Roscoe Bartlett, are suddenly finding their support for extreme right politics to be a huge political liability (excerpt below):
NEW YORK TIMES: In states where the Democrats have a clear advantage in the presidential race, Tea Party-blessed incumbents like Representative Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland, Representative Joe Walsh of Illinois and Representative Ann Marie Buerkle of New York are all in deep trouble.

“They are Tea Party stars,” said Representative Steve Israel of New York, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “And their stars have faded....”

JUICE #3: DELANEY SHORES UP HIS BACKSIDE WITH BILL CLINTON - While Roscoe Bartlett's campaign has floundered, John Delaney's campaign has been cautiously inching forward. But Roll Call's Abby Livingston announced today that Delaney is stepping things up with a visit from El Presidente Bill Clinton:
ROLL CALL: President Bill Clinton is set to appear Oct. 16 at a Washington, D.C., fundraiser for businessman John Delaney’s campaign for Maryland’s 6th district

No minimum donation was requested for the afternoon event.... The fundraiser is set for the Georgetown home of David and Katherine Bradley, the invitation said.

MORE ON THE CD6 RACE SOON!

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

POLLING SNAPSHOT: Democrats Gaining in Battleground House Races // Obama Tying Romney with Independents

Maryland Juice just received the following polling memo from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the polling firm started by President Bill Clinton's data guru Stan Greenberg. The respected pollsters surveyed the closest U.S. House races in the nation to get a snapshot of the current playing field.

Notably, this survey appears to include Maryland's 6th Congressional District -- given that the pollsters rate Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's CD6 seat as a "Tier 1" race (ie; one of the top 28 pick-up opportunities). They note that President Obama carried the new CD6 by 14 points. Things are looking good for Democrat John Delaney's chances of picking up this seat.

A few highlights that Maryland Juice noted:
  1. Independents: Obama is slightly leading Romney among swing district Independent voters; this is a marked shift from a few months ago. But hopefully this is not related to the two points below....
  2. Minorities: Democrats are beginning to lose footing with a chunk of minority voters to Republicans in U.S. House swing districts. WTF, Democrats.
  3. Youths: Republicans have a slight lead among young voters (ie: under-30) in the GOP-held battleground seats. WTF, Democrats.
  4. Women: Democrats doing well among women -- phrased differently: Republicans are burning their own house down with their attacks on women.



Sunday, October 16, 2011

See Your New Congressional District // Maryland 2012 District-by-District (8 Maps)

Maryland Juice below posts the district-by-district maps of Governor O'Malley's redistricting final draft. You can now see the proposed new boundaries for your member of Congress. The Maryland Assembly meets on Monday to vote on the maps, but the Baltimore Sun indicates the door may still be open to more changes:
In the House of Delegates, a "no" vote from more than 13 Democrats out of 98 could scuttle the plan if all Republicans oppose it. 
Joseph C. Bryce, O'Malley's top legislative aide, left the door open to possible changes.
See all 8 Maryland Congressional Districts Below:

Maryland 2012 Congressional District 8: Chris Van Hollen
 

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

2012 Election Preview - Maryland Congressional District 6 // Rep. Roscoe Bartlett vs. [FIND OUT HERE]

UPDATE: One Democratic lawmaker added, "State Senator Chris Shank should be on your list for CD6 Republican candidates. He is very talented and represents Washington County." Additionally, a reader adds the following to the CD6 list: "Former Frederick County Commissioner Jan Gardner? I always thought she could crush Mooney for Senate." Ms. Gardner lives in Maryland House District 3A in Frederick.

Another Democratic operative added, "Jan Gardner is a Democrat and Senator Barbara Mikulski's State Director. More than one person mentioned her name to me today. Given that the Democratic electorate in the 6th will be dominated by MoCo, I just don't think a WestMD Dem has any chance. Another GOP possibility for CD6 is D2B Delegate Neil Parrott of Washington County. He did all the petition work against the Dream Act and was mentioned as a future Congressional candidate then." Are there any other potential candidates we are missing? Email david@marylandjuice.com

Folks, it finally happened. Maryland Democrats have announced that in 2012, they will attempt to shift their 6-2 advantage in the state's U.S. House Delegation to 7-1. In doing so, they will try to replace Rep. Roscoe Barlett (one of two Republicans representing Maryland in the House) with a Democratic member. Maryland Juice decided to find out more about Rep. Bartlett and his electoral history, along with the various challengers that may seek to replace him.