Tuesday, February 2, 2016

BREAKING: Delegate Dereck Davis To End Campaign For Congress // Race To Replace Rep. Donna Edwards Down to 3

Multiple sources confirm that Delegate Dereck Davis (D-25) will end his congressional bid this week. Davis' departure comes on the heels of former County Councilmember Ingrid Turner signaling that she too was exiting the race.

Davis, the powerful and popular Chairman of the House of Delegate Economic Matters Committee, was a favorite among many in the Prince George's County establishment, had surrounded himself with seasoned political operatives, and was clearly in the top tier of candidates to replace Rep. Donna Edwards. Davis' departure from the race is a reminder of the challenges of running for higher office from the General Assembly, especially with the primary occurring only days after the end of the legislative session.

With Turner and Davis out, the race for the Fourth Congressional District is essentially down to former Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, former States Attorney Glen Ivey, and Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk. While it is unknown whether Davis will make an endorsement in the race, Brown may have the most to gain. Brown and Davis both represented the 25th Legislative District in the House, and their regional paths to victory likely were similar. 


Sunday, January 31, 2016

Fourth Quarter Fundraising Reports for Maryland's Open Seat Congressional Races: US Senate, CD4 and CD8

Below Maryland Juice provides a rundown of fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates running the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in Maryland. We are posting numbers from official FEC reports.

INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
January 31 at 10:15 PM

Summary Table of Current Cash on Hand

US Senate
  • Chris Van Hollen - 
  • Donna Edwards  - 

8th Congressional District
  • Kathleen Matthews - $1,147,930
  • Jamie Raskin - $869,330
  • Kumar Barve - $288,538
  • Will Jawando -  $215,449
  • Ana Sol Gutierrez - $169,483 (includes $94,500 loan)
  • Joel Rubin - $71,743
  • David Anderson - $47,027 (includes $50,000 loan)
  • David Trone - report not required

4th Congressional District
  • Glenn Ivey - $526,667
  • Joseline Pena-Melnyk - $378,396
  • Dereck Davis - $304,934
  • Anthony Brown - $269,443
  • Ingrid Turner - $104,579 (includes $100,000 loan)
  • Warren Christopher - $80,810
  • Alvin Thornton - $7,426 (includes $8,000 loan) 

United States Senate

Donna Edwards 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

Chris Van Hollen 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

8th Congressional District

David Anderson 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,250
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $59,432
  • Current Cash on Hand: $47,027

Kumar Barve 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $111,748
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $535,620
  • Current Cash on Hand: $288,538

Ana Sol Gutierrez
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $32,671
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $147,068
  • Current Cash on Hand: $169,483

Will Jawando 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $81,500
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $352,158
  • Current Cash on Hand: $215,449

Kathleen Matthews 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $503,827
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,568,860
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,147,930

Jamie Raskin

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $374,864
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,303,582
  • Current Cash on Hand: $869,330

Joel Rubin
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $159,258
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $159,258
  • Current Cash on Hand: $71,743


4th Congressional District

Anthony Brown 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $102,481
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $457,024
  • Current Cash on Hand: $269,443

Warren Christopher
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $45,853
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $138,775
  • Current Cash on Hand: $80,810
Dereck Davis
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $150,776
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $441,112
  • Current Cash on Hand: $304,934

Glenn Ivey 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $196,570
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $714,894
  • Current Cash on Hand: $526,667

Joseline Pena-Melnyk 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $146,821
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $508,228
  • Current Cash on Hand: $378,396

Alvin Thornton
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,174
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $12,624
  • Current Cash on Hand: $7,426
Ingrid Turner
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $11,971
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $70,821
  • Current Cash on Hand: $104,579


Non-Open Seat U.S. House Incumbents

Elijah Cummings
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $191,978
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $561,642
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,095,970
John Delaney
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,511
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $763,690
  • Current Cash on Hand: $319,986
Andy Harris (R)
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,998
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $623,680
  • Current Cash on Hand: $647,050
Steny Hoyer
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $299,246
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,635,434
  • Current Cash on Hand: $800,467
Dutch Ruppersberger
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $114,750
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $504,113
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,048,439
John Sarbanes
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $187,485
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $536,676
  • Current Cash on Hand: $949,934

Select GOP Challengers

Amie Hoeber [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,856
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $108,804
  • Current Cash on Hand: $200,540 (includes $200,000 loan)
Mark Plaster [CD3]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $47,287
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $154,120
  • Current Cash on Hand: $56,906
Mike Smigiel [CD1]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,355
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: #3,355
  • Current Cash on Hand: $3,912
David Vogt [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $10,099
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $57,675
  • Current Cash on Hand: $30,965

Thursday, December 3, 2015

BREAKING: Maryland Senator Karen Montgomery To Step Down // Delegate Craig Zucker Favored for Appointment

Multiple sources confirm that Senator Karen Montgomery (D-14) will resign prior to the start of the 2016 General Assembly session, thereby triggering a vacancy appointment by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee.

Montgomery, 80, was first elected to the House of Delegates in 2002 - one of the first persons to represent District 14 within Montgomery County. In 2010 Delegate Montgomery defeated incumbent Senator Rona Kramer in the Democratic primary by just over 100 votes. She was strongly supported in that race by the teachers (MCEA), SEIU, League of Conservation Voters, Sierra Club and Progressive Maryland.

Should the District 14 Senate vacancy materialize, the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) will  have 30 days to make a recommendation to Governor Hogan on who should complete the remainder of Senator Montgomery's term.

Many insiders believe Delegate Craig Zucker to be the favorite to fill the vacancy.  Zucker, 40, was elected to the House of Delegates in 2010 and reelected in 2014. He sits on the House Appropriations Committee and was recently named the Vice Chair of Capital Budget Subcommittee by Speaker Mike Busch. Prior to his election, Zucker worked for a number of public officials including Senator Bill Bradley, Senator Barbara Boxer and Comptroller Peter Franchot.

If Zucker is appointed to the State Senate, his departure will trigger yet another MCDCC vacancy appointment, and a scramble to fill his Delegate seat. Among the names being mentioned for the potential Delegate vacancy include Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee member Chris Bradbury, Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee member and Morgan State Professor Pamela Queen, and former Deputy Secretary of State Dr. Rajan Natarajan. Other names are sure to emerge, including past candidates like Jodi Finkelstein and Tom Degonia.

Van Hollen Gets Important Backing From SEIU // One Union Says Edwards "Has Turned Her Back Toward Labor"

Today, at an announcement at in Baltimore, Representative Chris Van Hollen will accept the endorsement Maryland’s Service Employees International Union (SEIU) locals, including 1199, 32BJ, Local 500, Local 400, NAGE and Local 722. This is the biggest endorsement to date for Van Hollen and a body blow to Congresswoman Donna Edwards, who many originally expected to win the strong backing from organized labor.
BALTIMORE SUN: Van Hollen "has a record of standing with labor and workers," said Ricarra Jones, with 1199 SEIU. "We're going to go with a person who is going to best represent our interests in the Senate."
WASHINGTON POST: We feel like she has turned her back toward labor,” said Ricarra Jones, political organizer for Local 1199, the largest SEIU chapter in Maryland, which has about 9,000 members. “We think that Van Hollen will do a much better job.”
PAINT THE STATE PURPLE: The Maryland SEIU locals represent nearly 45,000 members, and their endorsement ensures the Van Hollen campaign will receive significant union support, including member-volunteers who will knock on doors and make phone calls in Baltimore City and other key Democratic jurisdictions.

Relaxed campaign finance rules post Citizens United not only allows SEIU to spend more heavily on advertising but also to ramp up voter contact efforts to non-union workers. In 2012, SEIU was the top outside spending on Democratic campaigns - spending $70 million on donations, television ads and GOTV.

SEIU has increasingly played a very active role in many important elections and legislative battles through both member outreach and paid media efforts. In 2014, SEIU backed and invested heavily in Lt. Governor Anthony Brown and more than 80 other candidates in the Democratic primary. The vast majority of these endorsed candidates prevailed.

Nationally, the 2 million member SEIU - the fastest growing union in the United States - endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. Notably, SEIU has supported and increased awareness of the ‘Fight for $15’ campaign, and has successfully persuaded local leaders in New York, Los Angeles and Seattle to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.

DISAPPOINTING FOR DONNA: Labor in the past has strongly supported Edwards, which likely makes today’s endorsement that much more painful. SEIU and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) strongly supported her bid to unseat Rep. Al Wynn in 2008 - spending more than $1 million on her successful campaign. Unions also circled the wagons and effectively scared Glenn Ivey into dropping a primary challenge in 2012.

Earlier this year observers thought Edwards had the inside track with labor, and would earn the financial and organizational resources to make up for Van Hollen’s fundraising edge. Instead, Van Hollen and Edwards have traded endorsements and the AFL-CIO declined to choose sides.

It is unlikely that any union that currently supports Edwards can match the resources SEIU can bring to bear. 

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

EMILY'S List Pumps $1 Million Into Edwards Campaign // SuperPAC Ads To Target Women, African American Voters

Christmas came early for Representative Donna Edwards.

With dwindling resources and a new poll showing the Prince George’s Congresswoman behind by double digits, the Edwards campaign desperately needed a game changer. And they got one.

EMILY’s List - the influential Democratic organization that supports pro-choice women - announced that they will spend more than $1.2 million on television, radio and online ads for Edwards predominantly in the Baltimore region. As reported by John Fritze in The Baltimore Sun:
BALTIMORE SUN: The group will spend $875,000 on cable and broadcast ads alone, plus another $146,000 on radio and digital spots. The ads will run over six weeks and will target African American women. The ad campaign is paid for through WOMEN VOTE!, the group’s super PAC, which spent more than $12 million in the 2014 election cycle.
A MUCH NEEDED BOOST: EMILY's List ad buy - assuming the entire amount is spent - represents more than 3x the total amount of money the Edwards campaign has on hand, and allows her to finally respond to Representative Chris Van Hollen - who has been airing television ads unchallenged for the last month. Without this national bail out, it was likely Edwards’ path to victory could have become non-existent going into the homestretch.

DIGGING OUT OF A DEEP HOLE: Full crosstabs from the Baltimore Sun/University of Baltimore poll, shows the big hole that Edwards finds herself in, and why she needed EMILY's List to intervene now. She's losing women by 8 points (with 1 out 4 undecided), and doesn't even earn majority of African American support.

Men      Women
Van Hollen 51% 42%
Edwards 25% 34%
Other/Undecided      23% 25%

White      African American
Van Hollen
57%
28%
Edwards
21%
49%
Other/Undecided     
23%
22%

The impact of Edwards's lack of traction in Baltimore shows. She's only attracting a quarter of the vote in a region where more than 40% of Democratic electorate reside. 

Balt City    Balt Co    Balt Region    MoCo    PG      WestMD    SoMD    Shore
Van Hollen 44% 46% 49% 75% 23% 29% 49% 25%
Edwards 29% 24% 25% 12% 63% 16% 22% 24%
Other/Undecided    27% 29% 26% 13% 15% 55% 16% 42%

A POWERFUL PATRON: EMILY's List is a well resourced ally who has helped elect 19 Senators. In the first half of 2015, the organization raised $10.5 million from 60,000 donors - the most it has raised in an off-year. Jumping into the Maryland Senate primary is a signal that they are not abandoning Edwards -  a candidate they supported early and raised money for - in her time of need .

What may give some of EMILY's List supporters pause, are questions regarding whether they are spending their resources wisely with 2016 shaping up to be a historic year for women candidates. Putting aside Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign (which the group has said they will raise and spend $20 million for), there's New  Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan, Rep. Tammy Duckworth in Illinois, former Nevada AG Catherine Cortez Masto, Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and former Pennsylvania Environmental Secretary Katie McGinty facing off in competitive Senate races critical to Democratic chances to retaking the upper chamber. Every dollar spent in Maryland, is one less attacking Donald Trump, Mark Kirk or Pat Toomey. 

HOW EFFECTIVE WILL IT BE? The positive biographical ad supporting Edwards touts her humble roots and pushes the progressive fighter image (though the bright flashes throughout the ad have been called "jarring"). But there's a few things to note.

First, it is cheaper for candidates to advertise on television than for super-PACs. The rate EMILY's List is paying could be 1.5 or 2 times (or even higher) what the Van Hollen campaign paid. This price differential will only become greater as we approach the primary. More money for fewer ads. 

Second, advertising over the next 6 weeks puts the flight in the middle of the shopping season, the holidays and when most broadcast channels are playing reruns. This likely means fewer people are paying attention. Van Hollen's ads meanwhile played during November sweeps. 

Third, there's no guarantee that super PAC ad spending will be effective. Just ask Jeb! Bush. His Right to Rise super PAC has spent $28.9 million on TV ads, with no recognizable change to his numbers. Add to that the inability to officially coordinate with the official campaign, sync messages or film the candidate - makes this a tricky and costly enterprise. 

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Rep. Chris Van Hollen Jumps Into Lead in Maryland's Open Seat US Senate Race After Early Ad Campaign Spending


With 150 days left to go until Maryland’s April 26 primary, Representative Chris Van Hollen has leapfrogged over Congresswoman Donna Edwards to take a large lead in the Democratic primary according to a new poll by the The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore.

Vote
Van Hollen
45
Edwards
31
Other
3
Undecided
21

A BIG JUMP: A month after a random digit dial The Washington Post-UMD poll gave Edwards a large 10 point lead (38-28), Van Hollen is now up a whopping 14 points. 45% of likely primary voters choose him, while only 31% side with Edwards. An August Global Strategy Group internal poll for the Edwards campaign said Van Hollen was behind 37-42.

While one should be cautious when comparing polls by different organizations, the newest numbers suggest not only a significant uptick in support for Van Hollen but a dramatic erosion of support for Edwards. While the Sun has not released full crosstabs of their poll, they note that Van Hollen is performing “remarkably well” with women and African American voters. Van Hollen is winning female voters by 7% and is attracts almost 30% of support from black voters.

One of five voters remain undecided, and Edwards would need almost all of them to break for her.

REAPING THE REWARDS : Unknown in the Baltimore region - even though Ambassador Chris Van Hollen Sr. was born there - Van Hollen’s campaign decided to invest resources in early ads on broadcast and cable television in the relatively inexpensive Baltimore media market . In three introductory spots, Baltimore voters heard Chris Van Hollen was “a hero to environmentalists, education groups and gun control advocates,” is “not afraid to take on the special interests” and “led the fight to stop Republican cuts to Social Security and end their special deals for Wall Street.

The exact size of the month long ad buy is unknown, they seem to have been incredibly effective. Van Hollen is leading by 16 points in Baltimore City - a jurisdiction that both Anthony Brown and Kweisi Mfume won convincingly in their primaries. In the wider Baltimore region, Van Hollen’s lead expands to 2:1.

STICK A FORK IN IT? The Edwards camp who had been loudly touting her strong poll numbers until now, cannot be happy. She was already running out of cash and this new poll is a broadside on her continued viability as a statewide candidate. The demographics may be on her side, but attracting new supporters could be difficult if they don’t believe she can win. And another disappointing fundraising quarter could give any national organization serious reservations about bailing out a floundering campaign facing an uphill climb.

Edwards likely knows the facts on the ground. She’s been spending a lot of time in Baltimore and her campaign just opened up an office in the City last week. But unless she can compete on the airwaves, the campaign will not be able to reach enough voters to make a difference. The three #McConnelling B-roll videos she has put up simply won’t do the trick.

STILL WAITING ON CUMMINGS: Everyone’s still formally waiting on Representative Elijah Cummings to make his intentions on the US Senate race publicly known, but signals still point to the Baltimore Congressman staying in the House.

This poll finds Cummings leading the field by 12 points with 40%, Van Hollen second at 28% and Edwards bringing up the rear with 19%.

State Senator Jamie Raskin Leads In Internal Poll // First Look at Maryland 8th Congressional District Democratic Primary

The first publicly released poll in 8th Congressional District Democratic primary finds State Senator Jamie Raskin with an early lead over his closest competitor - Kathleen Matthews. GBA Strategies - which polled in Maryland in 2014 - conducted the poll for the Raskin campaign.

We tend to take internal polls with a grain of salt, but still this is our first look at where the race stands as we head into 2016.

TOP LINE: Raskin leads the crowded field with 30% of the vote. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%

Vote
Name ID
Raskin
30
49
Matthews
21
53
Gutierrez
11
42
Barve
5
30
Anderson
3
Jawando
2
22
Rubin
0
Other/Unsure
28


FRONTRUNNERS: The poll seemingly confirms that Raskin and Matthews are the frontrunners in the race. Raskin’s lead isn’t particularly surprising given his longstanding work with and popularity among Montgomery County’s progressive base, many of whom have cast ballots for him before. On the other hand, while it is likely that primary voters may remember and like Matthews from her time as a news anchor, they may not be ready to vote for her until they know  more about this first-time candidate's positions and other relevant experience. This will likely change during the course of the campaign.

The polling memo notes that Raskin posts large leads over Matthews in his home district D20 (+43) and in nearby D18 (+30), but his smaller district-wide lead suggests Matthews is  stronger in Bethesda, Rockville and outside Montgomery County. The polls fails to mention if there is a gender gap (which could be critical for a Matthews victory).

As expected, Matthews' campaign manager's response was on-message:  
MATTHEWS CM ETHAN SUSSLES: This poll shows that a majority of Democratic voters are looking for a fresh approach and Kathleen has a track record of getting things done, putting women and families first, and the international experience we need in these challenging times,
BRINGING UP THE REAR: The second tier of candidates is led by Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez who has been significantly outraised by Delegate Kumar Barve and Will Jawando - both of whom now trail her significantly in this poll. Gutierrez - who is the only Hispanic candidate in the race - benefits from greater name ID having been in public office for the last quarter century

With five months to go and barely any paid advertising in the race, nearly 1 out of 3 voters remain undecided. The composition of the group is key but unspecified.

You can read the full Raskin polling memo here.