Friday, December 23, 2011

CD6: Robin Ficker Criticizes Roscoe Bartlett's Polling Results // Plus, a Reader Takes Issue with Alex Mooney's Fundraiser

Maryland Juice recently wrote about leaked polling results in the highly contested 6th Congressional District race. The survey results came from embattled GOP incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett campaign, and numerous readers have been sending in critiques of the methodology and findings. Read comments about Mr. Bartlett's poll. One reader who doesn't believe the results is rival GOP candidate Robin Ficker. The pollster, Bruce Donisthorpe, concluded the following:
Bottom Line: If the race was held today, Bartlett wins. The Independents and Democratic voters have large groups of Conservative and Moderate voters than will identify with his candidacy, and hold unfavorable job approval ratings of the President. Additionally, Mr. Bartlett has plenty of time to campaign in the new areas of the district and get better acquainted with the voters of Montgomery County, who are receptive to Bartlett’s candidacy. The race will take a lot of time, resources and campaigning, but this race can be won if he runs a good campaign and stays aggressive on the fundraising front to get the resources needed to win
Mr. Ficker emailed Maryland Juice the following response to Rep. Bartlett's poll:
Juice, any poll by [Bruce Donisthorpe] has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.  This guy is a lobbyist.  The only other "poll" I could find that he has made was one for the Lt. Governor's race in N.Mex. in 2010 and it wasn't even close to the election result.  My Dad worked for the Congressional Research Service for 40 years.  He and I have known "pollsters" that would make up campaign statements, er "polls" out of whole cloth.  Plus, you can get phone numbers for less than 60% now because the newer, younger folks have cellphones only, not land lines. Robin  Plus, if indeed there was any poll, it would have included a Republican only component which isn't beiong disclosed.
Reader Reaction: Rep. Bartlett's poll also included the following final results that led to these conclusions: If the election were held today between Rep. Bartlett and Democratic State Senator Rob Garagiola, Mr. Bartlett would allegedly receive 43% to Garagiola's 35.5%,  with 21.5% undecided." Within minutes of publishing the poll, I received a phone call from a Democratic lawmaker who felt the sample was improperly weighted towards Republicans. He also felt that even if the poll were taken at face value, it showed Mr. Bartlett to be extremely vulnerable. An anonymous reader sent in similar comments:
According to the poll the district is 47% Democrat, 37% Republican and 16% Independent. However, they polled 1600 people (awfully high for a Congressional Poll) and talked to 800 Republicans, 700 Dems and 300 Independents. No wonder the Republican did well! The other real story should be - what were the results among Republicans in a potential primary? That may have been the real reason for doing the poll.
The Frederick News-Post's Bethany Rodgers covered the reaction from a few CD6 GOP candidates about the poll, including this interesting one from GOP Chair Alex Mooney:
Alex Mooney, a former Bartlett aide who has also expressed interest in the race, said he does not question the validity of the poll and sees the results as promising for Republicans.

Mooney has said he considered entering the contest partially out of concern that Bartlett was planning to retire. The fact that Bartlett paid for a poll might quiet some of those worries, he said.

"The concern was that he wasn't going to run a full, active campaign. But if he's raising money and doing polls, that would indicate he's more serious about it," Mooney said.

Alex Mooney Fundraiser: It is unclear what Mooney is trying to convey in the statement above, but it sounds like he's at least feigning the possibility he might not stay in the race. Those gestures toward his mentor should not be believed, though. Maryland Juice this morning received the following email from an anonymous reader, who points out that Alex Mooney is in active fundraising mode.

The reader also complains that the host of Mr. Mooney's next fundraiser has in the past hosted fundraisers for the Maryland Republican Party. Note: this is likely a complaint because Mooney broke his promise to raise money for the MD GOP's candidates, and now appears to have co-opted some of the party's best fundraisers:
Below is text of email Mooney sent out this morning. Of note is that the girl doing the fundraising was doing fundraising for the party before (such as the erhlich book event, etc):

I will be hosting the First Annual Alex Mooney Show Rockin' New Years Eve Party and wanted to be sure you were invited! The Party will take place on December 31st from 8pm to 1am at the Pastimes Cafe in the Hampton Inn hotel in Frederick, MD. I hope you are able to join us! Donations are not required but dancing is!

There will also be a VIP reception beforehand for $100 a person. Join us for a buffet dinner and open bar, stop by before heading out to celebrate the new year!

Please RSVP to by December 29th. Please note that everyone must RSVP and that no one may join the fun without their name (and those of their guests) on the list!

From my wife Grace and our family we wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and Bless New Year!

Please join the 
for a rockin'

Saturday, December 31 

Pastimes Café in the Hampton Inn

5311 Buckeystown Pike

Frederick, Maryland

VIP Reception
 6:00 - 8:00 p.m.
$100 per person

supports Mooney for Congress,
 includes open bar, and full buffet dinner!
Purchase Tickets
or contact or 443-875-3886.

Open Party
8:00 p.m. - 1:00 a.m.
in the downstairs ballroom
Donations: not required.

Dancing: required!

includes drinks, hors d’oeuvres, and music by
DJ Matt “Dancing” Schew!
Please join Maryland’s only New Year’s
celebration for conservatives! RSVP today!
Paid for by Mooney for Congress.

Tensions are running high in the CD6 GOP Primary! More on the race soon....

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