Wednesday, January 11, 2012

2014 Governors Race: 1) Baltimore Mayor Still Shopping for a Candidate? & 2) Can Peter Franchot Come in 2nd to Win?

Maryland Juice points readers to two articles of note regarding Maryland's 2014 Governor's race. We previously wrote that Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake hosted a fundraiser for Lt. Governor Anthony Brown. Based on that, we stated that it appeared as if she were supporting him in the 2014 Democratic Primary. The Baltimore Sun's Annie Linskey now calls that into question:
Howard County Executive Ken Ulman's fundraiser at Mother's in Federal Hill Monday night included an appearance by Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake.
All signs have, up to now, have suggested that the big city mayor will be lining up with Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown in the 2014 gubernatorial race... 
But Rawlings-Blake's attendence at Ulman's event, which is widely believed to be in preparation for a 2014 gubernatorial run, caught some people off-guard. It ignighted a wee bit of speculation during Tuesday's Democratic fundraiser in Annapolis that Brown is going to have to work for SRB's support....

Meanwhile, Tom Coale at the HoCo Rising blog tries to make sense of some of the geographic considerations in the 2014 race. They see hope for Comptroller Peter Franchot's campaign:
I was recently discussing the prospective Gubernatorial 2014 race with a friend, who described the Dem primary as being "all about second place."  Presuming all of the predicted players throw in their hats, we will have the "back to your corners" stratification of the Maryland Dems that occurs whenever there is not a candidate of unification.  Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and Ken Ulman will find support from Mid-Maryland North.  AG Doug Gansler and Comptroller Peter Franchot both came up in Democratic circles of the DC suburbs.  As such, the winner of the primary will be whomever can grab the most votes in their "home base" and get second place in as many other counties as possible.

This analysis tends to put Franchot in a very good position to win, even without getting Montgomery County, where it is presumed that Gansler has more name recognition as the former State's Attorney.  With a focus on fiscal issues, Franchot could come in second amongst most of the DC Suburb counties (including Howard) and then sweep first place for all of the red counties, including the Eastern Shore.  Brown takes Baltimore, Baltimore County, and Anne Arundel, but the second place spot in those jurisdictions will probably determine who wins the nomination between Gansler and Franchot.  (Personally, I have not had very good experiences with Doug Gansler and am not so certain the campaign doesn't implode long before November 2014).

Obviously, each campaign has its own "Narrative to Victory", but this one seems to make sense, and tends to incorporate avenues to victory for most of the candidates.  The description above is part of the reason why so many pundits say that there are no trains to the State House from Ellicott City, but I would be interested in hearing why that may be wrong.
More on the 2014 Governor's race soon!

1 comment:

  1. Ulman has no chance, considering the house of cards on which he based his run for Counry Executive. Since when does "Clinton White House Staffer" equal "intern" and what is "Secretary of the Cabinet" and "Director of the Board of Public Works" ... Once Brown or Franchot peels away this puffery, Ulman will be exposed.

    Why did Ulman take these job out of his bio after he was elected?