Thursday, March 29, 2012

Democratic Women Dominate Maryland Early Vote Turnout // My 2-Second Analysis of 2012 & 2010 Primary Election Turnout

UPDATE: The full and complete early voting figures are in, and just as we predicted, turnout among eligible voters was 2.4% statewide. In 2012, 48,907 Democrats (2.49%) and 26,353 Republicans (2.82%) cast early vote ballots for the April Primary Elections. In CD6, only 7,632 voters cast early voting ballots (1.94%).

Maryland Juice also just noticed a perhaps obvious fact from the first five days of early voting, but Democratic Women dominate the turnout rankings. By the end of early voting, there were nearly 2 women voting for every 1 male voter in the Democratic Primary (ie: a factor of 1.75 to 1). The single largest group of voters in the state is Democratic Women age 45-65.  Turnout among men and women in the Republican Primary, however, is almost 50-50. See our quick analysis below.
2012 Early Vote Turnout Rankings - Gender & Party
  1. Democratic Women (all ages) 24,479
  2. Democratic Men (all ages) 14,237
  3. Republican Women (all ages) 10,159
  4. Republican Men (all ages) 10,138
2012 Early Vote Turnout Rankings - Gender, Party & Age (Top 9)
  1. Democratic Women Age 45-65 - 12,485
  2. Democratic Women Age 65+ - 8,688
  3. Democratic Men Age 45-65 - 6,543
  4. Democratic Men Age 65+ - 5,878
  5. Republican Women Age 45-65 - 5,090
  6. Republican Men Age 45-65 - 4,935
  7. Republican Women Age 65+ - 3,681
  8. Republican Men Age 65+ - 3,614
  9. Democratic Women Age 25-44 - 2,690
2010 Early Vote Turnout Rankings - Gender & Party
  1. Democratic Women (all ages) 33,651
  2. Democratic Men (all ages) 21,066
  3. Republican Women (all ages) 10,930
  4. Republican Men (all ages) 10,705
For all of you data junkies out there, Maryland Juice is printing the turnout numbers thus far for early voting. Today is the last day to vote early before the April 3rd primary, but the turnout figures so far should provide a useful window into the mind of the electorate. To allow for a comparison, we also print the 2010 Primary Election early vote turnout numbers (at the end of this post).

Maryland Juice's 2-Second Analysis

Turnout Higher Among GOP: In 2010, the early voting numbers for the Primary Elections were 54,770 Democrats (2.82% turnout) and 21,656 Republicans (2.37% turnout). Thus far in the 2012 cycle, throughout Maryland 38,723 Democrats (1.97% turnout) and 20,304 Republicans (2.17% turnout) have voted early. Today is the last of the six days in the early voting period, so we do not yet have the total figures. But there is enough data available to make a useful comparison to the 2010 numbers. In a reversal from two years ago, Republicans are turning out in slightly higher numbers. But this makes sense given that the GOP Presidential Primary in Maryland is in play. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney have all made stops in the Free State this week.

Total Early Vote Turnout Similar to 2010?: As mentioned above, we are still waiting for one day of turnout numbers before we can make a final conclusion. But note that the last day of early voting tends to get the heaviest turnout, as was the case in 2010, when roughly .57% of voters participated on the final day of early voting. Right now, the current early vote turnout percentage for 2012 is 1.88%. If we assume a similar .57% bump in turnout will happen today, the total 2012 early voting turnout might hover near 2.4% or 2.5%. Total early vote turnout in 2010 was 2.44%.

CD6 Early Vote Turnout is 2nd Lowest in Maryland: Thus far in the 2012 early voting period, 5,996 CD6 voters have cast ballots (ie: 1.52% of eligible voters). That is the 2nd lowest turnout in the state, behind only Rep. Chris Van Hollen's CD8 which has only 1.32% turnout during early voting this year. Granted, the low CD6 turnout is still an increase from 2010, when only 6,261 ballots were cast during all of early vote (ie: 1.51% of eligible voters). Since today's early vote ballots have not yet been counted in the 2012 totals, CD6 will surpass its 2010 turnout. But these are still underwhelming numbers, given that the CD6 race is a top race in the nation and is occurring simultaneous to a contested Republican Presidential race.

Maryland 2012 Primary Early Vote Turnout 3/24-3/28

Maryland 2010 Primary Early Vote Turnout

1 comment:

  1. Do you know what the cost is for having the early voting? I think it is at least $1 million which is more than $13/voter, but I don't have 2012 costs.

    Cathy Drzyzgula