Wednesday, April 18, 2012

POLLING SNAPSHOT: Democrats Gaining in Battleground House Races // Obama Tying Romney with Independents

Maryland Juice just received the following polling memo from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the polling firm started by President Bill Clinton's data guru Stan Greenberg. The respected pollsters surveyed the closest U.S. House races in the nation to get a snapshot of the current playing field.

Notably, this survey appears to include Maryland's 6th Congressional District -- given that the pollsters rate Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's CD6 seat as a "Tier 1" race (ie; one of the top 28 pick-up opportunities). They note that President Obama carried the new CD6 by 14 points. Things are looking good for Democrat John Delaney's chances of picking up this seat.

A few highlights that Maryland Juice noted:
  1. Independents: Obama is slightly leading Romney among swing district Independent voters; this is a marked shift from a few months ago. But hopefully this is not related to the two points below....
  2. Minorities: Democrats are beginning to lose footing with a chunk of minority voters to Republicans in U.S. House swing districts. WTF, Democrats.
  3. Youths: Republicans have a slight lead among young voters (ie: under-30) in the GOP-held battleground seats. WTF, Democrats.
  4. Women: Democrats doing well among women -- phrased differently: Republicans are burning their own house down with their attacks on women.

Below we publish the press release, polling memo, graphs/key findings, and the frequency questionnaire from the survey. Fascinating stuff, folk! Take a spin through the full findings yourself.

Democrats Gaining in Battleground

Last month, virtually all House Republicans voted for Paul Ryan’s latest budget plan (“The Path to Prosperity”)—and according to the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, they will pay the price in November.

In this survey of 1000 likely voters in the 56 most competitive Republican-held districts, the climate has shifted in favor of the Democrats.  Voters view the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party, the President is viewed far more favorably than Mitt Romney, and both the President and congressional Democrats have made gains on the ballot since last September. 

Democratic incumbents in the 23 most competitive Democratic seats appear poised to do very well in their races, hitting the critical 50 percent mark on both job approval and on the ballot. By contrast, the Republicans’ vote margin in the Republican districts is unchanged and still falls far short of the margins they enjoyed in November 2010.

These are districts that Republicans collectively won by an 11-point margin just a year and a half ago—and as incumbents stake claim to unpopular positions on this newest Ryan budget, their already weakened position erodes further. Just 41 percent support the Ryan budget without any description. Amazingly, after hearing information about the budget and a debate on both sides, the congressional vote flips in favor of the Democrats.

The more voters hear about the Republicans’ newest Ryan budget the more sharply they turn against the Ryan budget and these Republican incumbents.  To be sure, Americans remain deeply concerned about government spending—and Republicans do get heard when they talk about how vulnerable our debt makes the country in the long term—but Americans are poised to punish those who would balance the budget on the backs of the poor and the middle class.

A more detailed analysis of these results can be found at Democracy Corps.

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About Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is the world's premium research and strategic consulting firm, working with corporations, issue groups, and political campaigns throughout the United States and around the world. Find out more about us, along with the latest research and commentary from our principals and analysts, at

About Democracy Corps
Democracy Corps is an independent, non-profit organization dedicated to making the government of the United States more responsive to the American people. It was founded in 1999 by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg. Democracy Corps provides free public opinion research and strategic advice to those dedicated to a more responsive Congress and Presidency.

About Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund
Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF) is committed to increasing the number of unmarried women, people of color and young people in the Rising American Electorate who speak out, turnout, and participate in our democracy and government.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Polling Memo - 4/18/2012 Poll

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Graphs - 4/18/2012 Poll

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Frequency Questionnaire - 4/18/2012 Poll

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