Tuesday, July 31, 2012

CD6: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett & John Delaney Tied in New Poll // PLUS: Delaney Visits Israel, Reveals Immigration Views & More

As we get closer to the November 6th election day, Maryland 6th Congressional District battle is heating up. News outlets are reporting on new poll results in CD6 which show the race in a dead-heat. The survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of two Democratic allies, the House Majority PAC and SEIU.  National Journal reported this morning (excerpt below):

NATIONAL JOURNAL: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., is in a virtual tie with his Democratic challenger, but the incumbent is mired dangerously below 45 percent, according to a poll commissioned by Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and SEIU.

Bartlett took 42 percent in the survey of Maryland's new 6th Congressional District, compared to 44 percent for Democratic financier John Delaney. The poll was conducted July 23-25 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, surveying 400 likely voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points....

Meanwhile, The Hill commented on the new poll results and noted the new partisanship of the 6th Congressional District (excerpt below):
THE HILL: Democrats targeted Bartlett in redistricting: Much of this district is new to him, and went from a district Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won with 58 percent of the vote to one President Obama would have won 56 percent in. The poll shows Obama leading Mitt Romney by 51 to 42 percent....

See the polling memo below:
CD6 Poll Memo: Roscoe Bartlett vs. John Delaney - Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), for what its worth, is up with a new web ad targeting Rep. Bartlett on tax cuts for millionaires:
DCCC: The new advertising begins today in the districts of twenty-three vulnerable House Republicans as part of the DCCC's "Drive for 25" campaign to win the Majority.

With 100 days until Election Day, House Republicans will vote this week to give people making more than $1 million a year another $130,000 tax break....

JOHN DELANEY ON IMMIGRATION & ISRAEL: There have been a number of other bits of movement in the CD6 race. First, Democrat John Delaney accepted an invitation for the young Dream Act & immigration reform advocates from #JSA (aka Justice for Students in America). Maryland Reporter covered the forum and captured Delaney's views on hot-button immigration issues (excerpt below):
MARYLAND REPORTER: Delaney told the crowd of Latino students he strongly supported the federal Dream Act and a “clear and short path” to citizenship for the country’s undocumented population.

“I would like to be a voice for comprehensive immigration reform,” Delaney told members of a newly formed student immigrant advocacy group, Justice for Students in America. “Creating a path to citizenship for the 11 million [undocumented] has to be a national priority....”

Shortly after the meeting with the JSA students, Delaney announced a trip to Israel, where he is currently traveling. See the photo and statement below:
John Delaney at the Kotel (source: Facebook)
JOHN DELANEY: “After speaking with community leaders, faith leaders, and voters, across the District during my campaign, I came to understand that visiting Israel was necessary to obtain a full and proper perspective on our relationship with our strongest ally in the Middle East. I felt that it was vital to gain a first-hand understanding of the issues,” said Delaney.
“Israel is a force for greater democracy and stability in the Middle East, and we must support its right to exist in peace and security. In light of the political unrest in Syria and the changing landscape of the Middle East, promoting strong democratic values in the region is critically important. As a member of Congress, I will work to ensure that the US-Israel partnership remains strong” said Delaney.

The issue of Middle East peace previously emerged in the CD6 race, when John Delaney prompted a debate about the use of military force to deal with Iran. Delaney wanted to leave "all options on the table," leading his Democratic rivals to issue their positions on when voluntary war with Iran was acceptable.

SIERRA CLUB ENDORSES JOHN DELANEY: Last Thursday, the Sierra Club also came out in support of John Delaney. The group had previously backed State Sen. Rob Garagiola in the CD6 Democratic Primary:
SIERRA CLUB: "The Sierra Club is pleased and proud to endorse John Delaney in Maryland's 6th Congressional District race because of his clear commitment to protecting America's air and water resources and to the ongoing work of the Environmental Protection Agency," said David O'Leary, chair of the Maryland Chapter of the Sierra Club.  "John Delaney understands that we need a national energy policy which encourages energy conservation and promotes clean, renewable sources of energy that will create good jobs in this country and contribute to a healthier future."

BAD NEWS FOR ROSCOE BARTLETT: Lastly, a couple weeks ago the DCCC released a round-up of tough news coverage for Rep. Roscoe Bartlett. If you want to catch up on the CD6 coverage, you can spin through their release below. Links to articles are at the bottom:


Congressman Bartlett Overwhelmed by Bad Headlines as Seat Slips Away

Since a lackluster primary victory in April, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (MD-6) has been plagued by negative headlines. Congressman Bartlett’s troubles culminated this week, as he became one of 14 Republican incumbents to be out-raised in the second quarter. As the headline read Tuesday in the Frederick News-Post, Bartlett’s “best-ever second quarter not enough.”

Months of miscues have led to a torrent of bad press for the twenty-year incumbent. Among other missteps, Congressman Bartlett has been caught retracting false attacks online and making mysterious robo-calls to lobbyists. Worse still, in late June it was reported in outlets across the state that Congressman Bartlett’s campaign had been fined by the FEC for inaccurate campaign finance reports. Congressman Bartlett’s FEC problems eventually landed him on the front page of the Baltimore Sun, which noted that Congressman Bartlett has received more letters from the FEC requesting additional information than any other member of the House. All while polling shows that Congressman Bartlett trails entrepreneur John Delaney by nine points.

Both local and national observers now question Congressman Bartlett’s viability. Editorials in the Frederick News-Post and Hagerstown Herald-Mail have argued that Bartlett is in deep trouble. The Washington Post calls Congressman Bartlett one of the “terminal ten” and says that the race is now an “uphill battle” for the incumbent. National Journal rates Bartlett as the 4th most endangered incumbent in the House, and the Cook Political Report rates the race “likely Democratic.” In the words of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “the growing consensus seems to be that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is a goner.”

“For the first time since he was elected two decades ago, Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett is in real danger of losing his seat.” – Ben Pershing, Washington Post 7/15/12

“I think things would have to go pretty far south nationally for Democrats for Bartlett to have a chance.” – David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, quoted in Washington Post 7/15/12

“The growing consensus seems to be that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is a goner.” – Kyle Klondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball 7/12/12

“The problems occur so often it is hard to believe that there is any explanation other than Bartlett’s own contempt for the law. […] Indeed, this might well be the year it all catches up with him. – Editorial Board, Hagerstown Herald-Mail 6/30/12

Negative Bartlett Headlines since 4/3/2012

You Can Still Probably Bet Against Roscoe Bartlett  [Center Maryland, 7/17/12]
Roscoe Bartlett fights uphill battle to keep his seat  [Washington Post, 7/15/12]
The Roscoe Update: Bartlett Phoning It In, Lobbyists Say  [National Journal, 5/24/12]
Conservative Republican Admits Keystone Pipeline Has Nothing To Do With Gas Prices  [Talking Points Memo, 5/23/12]
Roscoe Bartlett: The Man Who Wasn’t There?  [National Journal, 5/22/12]
Baltimore Sun: First salvo in 6th District race fired then withdrawn on Twitter  [Baltimore Sun, 5/08/12]
The Last Stand of Roscoe Bartlett  [Baltimore Magazine, May 2012]

Delaney tops fundraising: Bartlett’s best-ever second quarter not enough  [Frederick News-Post, 7/17/12]
BARTLETT OUT-RAISED, OUT-RACED  [Maryland Reporter, 7/16/12]
Bartlett had best fundraising quarter in years, but is still outraised  [Baltimore Sun, 7/13/12]

FEC Report Fines
Bartlett’s incomplete finance reports draw fine  [Frederick News-Post, 6/26/12]
Bartlett fined by FEC  [Germantown Patch, 6/26/12]
Md’s Bartlett Cited for Campaign Finance Violations  [Newsmax, 6/25/12
Bartlett Struggles with Campaign Disclosure  [Baltimore Sun, 6/24/12]
Bartlett in hot seat again over finance reports  [Gazette, 6/14/12]
Delaney outraised Bartlett in 6th District 2-1, but starts out even for the general; FEC questions Bartlett’s filings [Maryland Reporter, 6/07/12]

Delaney polls shows lead over Bartlett [Frederick News-Post, 4/20/12]
Delaney Internal Poll Shows Him Up Over Bartlett [Roll Call, 4/17/12]
Bartlett Trailing Delaney in Challenger’s Poll [National Journal, 4/17/12]
Delaney’s poll gives him a 9-point lead over Bartlett in House race [Washington Post, 4/17/12]

The Terminal Ten: The most vulnerable House seats in the country [Washington Post, 7/13/12]
House Rating Changes [Center for Politics, University of Virginia, 7/12/12]

Election update  [Frederick News-Post, Editorial, 7/18/12]
Bartlett’s failure to comply might irk some voters  [Hagerstown Herald-Mail, Editorial, 6/30/12]
Let me revise: Delaney will defeat Bartlett  [Gazette, Column, 4/12/12]


Note: You can click the dates next to the headlines above to read the full articles.

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