Wednesday, September 26, 2012

POLL: Marriage Equality & Dream Act Moving Toward Passage // Majority of MD Independents Will "Vote For" Questions 4 & 6


SUMMARY POLL RESULTS: With a little over a month until this November's Presidential Election, a new poll from Gonzales Research (Hat tip: Maryland Reporter) shows that a majority of voters will "vote for" the Dream Act (Question 4) and marriage equality (Question 6). Meanwhile, voters are divided on whether to expand gambling (Question 7). Here are the summary results from the new Gonzales poll (via Maryland Reporter):
Question 4 – Dream Act
  • Statewide, 58% of Maryland voters say they will vote For Question 4 in the November election, while 34% say they will vote Against Question 4, with 8% undecided.

Question 6 – Same-Sex Marriage
  • Statewide, 51% of voters say they will vote For Question 6, while 43% say they will vote Against Question 6, with 6% undecided.

Question 7 – Expanded Gaming
  • Statewide, 45% of Maryland voters say they will vote For Question 7, while 46% say they will vote Against Question 7, with 9% undecided.

ENTHUSIASM GAP: DREAM ACT & MARRIAGE EQUALITY SUPPORTERS MORE MOTIVATED TO VOTE - Notably, today's poll results show that the progressive vote is the most motivated vote this November. For those rightwing politicos who are hoping to capitalize on Tea Party and religious fervor to defeat (respectively) the Dream Act and marriage equality, the poll results show little hope of that happening.  Likewise, gambling opponents are more motivated to vote than gambling expansion supporters. See the following comments from Gonzales research about the enthusiasm gap among Maryland's November electorate:
GONZALES RESEARCH: We asked voters which of these three ballot questions was most likely to get them out to vote: 34% said same-sex marriage, 26% said expanded gaming and 25% said in-state tuition.

Among those who say in-state tuition is most likely to get them out to vote, 64% say they’ll vote FOR Question 4; and among those who say same-sex marriage is most likely to get them out to vote, 56% say they’ll vote FOR Question 6, indicating intensity is on the side of supporters on these two issues.

Among those who say expanded gaming is most likely to get them out to vote, 54% say they’ll vote AGAINST Question 7, representing intensity on the side of opponents.

INDEPENDENTS SUPPORT MARRIAGE EQUALITY & DREAM ACT BUT OPPOSE GAMBLING - One final tidbit worth mentioning, is that Maryland's large independent electorate demonstrates a fairly progressive streak. The Gonzales poll notes that a majority of unaffiliated voters support a "vote for" the Dream Act (Question 4), while a super-majority support a "vote for" marriage equality (Question 6). A majority of independents also oppose gambling expansion (Question 7). See a summary of the survey of independents:
Dream Act (Question 4)
  • Independents  51% ("For") vs. 40% ("Against")

Marriage Equality (Question 6)
  • Independents  66% ("For") vs. 28% ("Against")

Gambling Expansion (Question 7)
  • Independents  40% ("For") vs. 50% ("Against")

CONCLUSION: Once again, these polling results should give pause to the Maryland GOP's ongoing efforts to demonize members of Maryland's diverse electorate. Independents aren't swayed by the Tea Party tactics, and there aren't enough Republicans to win with party base support. To my rightwing GOP friends: Have fun being a regional party!

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