TURNOUT ANALYSIS: What's Really Going On? // Maryland Juice Dissects Voter Turnout in the June 2014 Primary Elections

UPDATE:  When I first went live with the post below, I didn't have complete numbers of independent voters in each Maryland county. We've now updated the post with these figures (Hat-tip to Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick for pointing us in the right direction), along with an explanation of how counties without nonpartisan primaries have inflated turnout percentages. I've also added some information on counties where independent voters are outpacing Republicans. Scroll down for these updates below.

THE FUTURE OF MARYLAND JUICE: Alrighty folks, after months of absence, Maryland Juice is back in action! Before I kick-off a lengthy article about voter turnout in Maryland, I thought I'd take a second to discuss some changes that this blog will be pursuing in the coming months.

In case you haven't heard, I won my Democratic Primary election for the House of Delegates, and that means that by the time the legislative session starts in January 2015, I'll have to step back from my writing duties. But not to worry -- over the course of the next few months, I hope to introduce a new set of writers who will keep the Juice torch and information pipeline burning into the future. In 2015, I  may still write an article here or there, but likely not with the vigor and frequency you've become accustomed to (for various obvious reasons). In any case, keep your eyes open as we roll out new Juicers in 2014! Now onto my first article in over three months....

MARYLAND JUICE 2014 PRIMARY ELECTION TURNOUT ANALYSIS - Numerous political pundits have fretted about Maryland's declining voter turnout, especially in Democratic strongholds like Montgomery County. The Washington Post's Bill Turque commented (excerpt below):

WASHINGTON POST: There’s been much opining among Montgomery’s elected officials about the anemic primary turnout last month, when just 16 percent of registered voters came to the polls. They cited, among other factors, the inconvenience of the new June 24 election date, the lack of urgent issues, and a less-than compelling primary race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination at the top of the ballot....

Turque's article was triggered by a feisty piece from Center Maryland columnist and Montgomery County resident Josh Kurtz (excerpt below):

CENTER MARYLAND: At presidential election time, voter turnout in Montgomery County is pretty decent: Almost three-quarters of enrolled voters showed up at the polls on Election Day 2012 to choose between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney....  But when it comes to acting locally, when it comes to selecting their leaders at the state and county levels, Montgomery County residents fail miserably.

In the recent statewide primary, just 16 percent of registered voters in Montgomery County bothered to vote. Sixteen percent!.... That’s lower voter turnout than in Garrett County (27 percent), where cousins marry, or in Somerset County (24 percent), where the raging issue is chicken waste, or in Baltimore city (22 percent), where they’re selling drugs on every street corner, or in Prince George’s County (18 percent), where every public official has a palm extended.....

But to accurately build a solution to the problem of "low turnout," it helps to understand what's really going on.  Indeed, rushed analyses have led some to hastily conclude that recent voting reforms like early voting were "unsuccessful" and that we are in some sort of existential crisis in Maryland with respect to civic engagement. However, many variables impacting voter turnout (eg: demographic changes, resident turnover, and the national mood) are out of state and local policymakers' control. Below are a few points to consider about turnout trends in Maryland and Montgomery County.

RAW DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELECTION DAY TURNOUT BY COUNTY: First, not all voters are the same. Turnout in Maryland varied wildly depending on your party registration, and all is not what it seems. In terms of raw Democratic Party turnout, simply more Democrats from Montgomery County voted at the polls on election day than Democrats from any other county:

COUNTY	PARTY	PRIMARY TURNOUT
Montgomery	DEM	68,179
Prince George's	DEM	64,982
Baltimore County	DEM	59,980
Baltimore City	DEM	51,730
Anne Arundel	DEM	24,655
Howard	DEM	19,193
Charles	DEM	12,314
Harford	DEM	11,795
Frederick	DEM	11,201
Carroll	DEM	6,306
Calvert	DEM	4,451
Washington	DEM	4,433
Saint Mary's	DEM	4,023
Cecil	DEM	3,508
Wicomico	DEM	3,349
Allegany	DEM	2,748
Queen Anne's	DEM	2,303
Worcester	DEM	2,173
Dorchester	DEM	1,952
Talbot	DEM	1,888
Kent	DEM	1,299
Caroline	DEM	1,018
Somerset	DEM	919
Garrett	DEM	790

If you include early voters, Montgomery County was second place in Maryland for raw Democratic turnout - Prince George's was first, Baltimore County was third, and Baltimore City was fourth.

% OF ELIGIBLE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT BY PARTY - One caveat to MoCo's large Democratic turnout should be noted. Even though more MoCo Dems turned out than Dems around the state, Montgomery County's turnout ranking does indeed drop when looking at the percentage of eligible Democrats who participated (as opposed to the absolute number of Democrats who voted).

But even still, in terms of the percentage of Democrats turning out for the primary election, Montgomery County was in a respectable 8th place out of 24 counties (including early voters). Of the large jurisdictions, only Baltimore County Democrats turned out at a rate higher than Montgomery. Prince George's was in 14th place, and Baltimore City was in 17th place:

COUNTY	PARTY	TURNOUT_TOTAL
Kent	DEM	30.22%
Queen Anne's	DEM	28.68%
Howard	DEM	27.77%
Talbot	DEM	26.94%
Baltimore County	DEM	26.51%
Charles	DEM	26.18%
Frederick	DEM	25.05%
Montgomery	DEM	23.90%
Harford	DEM	23.77%
Carroll	DEM	23.55%
Calvert	DEM	23.08%
Dorchester	DEM	22.90%
Anne Arundel	DEM	22.85%
Baltimore City	DEM	22.75%
Garrett	DEM	20.79%
Allegany	DEM	19.90%
Prince George's	DEM	19.46%
Cecil	DEM	19.02%
Saint Mary's	DEM	18.96%
Worcester	DEM	18.49%
Caroline	DEM	18.44%
Somerset	DEM	17.70%
Wicomico	DEM	16.82%
Washington	DEM	15.80%

MOCO'S POPULATION SURGE DISTORTS ITS TURNOUT PERCENTAGES: In other words, MoCo's sheer size of population means that we have among the most Democrats who vote in Maryland, but we also have a large number of MoCo Democrats who do not vote, thereby bringing down Montgomery County's turnout percentages. Why might this be?

MoCo Democrat Paul Bessel recently launched a new blog where he delved into some of these turnout dynamics. One of the facts he pointed out is that Montgomery County has had a huge surge in Democratic voter registrations over the last 14 years. Based on his graph below, MoCo had about 230,000 Democrats in 2000 compared with about 355,000 in 2014:

NUMBER OF MOCO DEMOCRATS VOTING BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN OVER 2 DECADES - MoCo Democrats have basically voted in equal numbers over the last couple decades, even while our turnout rate has dropped. How can that be? Some historical Democratic turnout numbers provided by Jonathan Shurberg provide some insight.

Here is one telling comparison. In 1990, roughly 86,000 MoCo Democrats voted out of 195,000. In 2014, roughly 84,000 MoCo Democrats voted. So the raw turnout is almost the same, but today there are 354,000 Democrats on the rolls in Montgomery County.

Montgomery County Democratic Turnout (Gubernatorial Primary Years)

• 1990: 86,167 turnout out of 195,523 registered Dems (44.07%)
• 1994: 89,452 turnout out of 217,007 registered Dems (41.22%)
• 1998: 75,485 turnout out of 227,863 registered Dems (33.13%)
• 2002: 110,518 turnout out of 246,779 registered Dems (44.78%)
• 2006: 108,337 turnout out of 271,008 registered Dems (39.98%)
• 2010: 83,827 turnout out of 321,759 registered Dems (26.05%)
• 2014: 84,622 turnout out of 354,078 registered Dems (23.90%)

It is worth noting that the two election cycles with unusually high turnout for MoCo Democrats both occurred during the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld era (2002-2006). Extrapolate what you will from that data point.

A PROBLEM FOR THE NEW MONTGOMERY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE - What all of this tells me is that as MoCo's population has surged over the last couple decades, we have likely failed to engage all of the new Democratic registrants that have chosen to reside here.  MoCo's Democratic turnout stayed the same over 24 years even though we added over 150,000 new Democrats to the voter rolls (almost twice as many as vote in Primaries).

Indeed, the vast majority of candidates seeking office in Montgomery County (and everywhere else) spend most of their resources contacting voters with a demonstrated history of voting in Democratic Primaries (aka the decisive elections). As a result, save for the occasional nonprofit voter mobilization drive, there is really nobody trying to pump primary turnout by engaging new registrants and less likely voters in primaries. This seems like a challenge for MoCo's new Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) to tackle. After all, we are living in a new world in Maryland politics, where literally zero Republicans hold elected office in Montgomery County. It seems sensible that the MCDCC should shift its activities to meet the evolving needs of our county's politics.


SO WHY DOES MOCO HAVE THE OVERALL LOWEST VOTER TURNOUT RATE IN MARYLAND? - Okay, so now that we've got the Democratic turnout analysis out of the way, it still remains true that MoCo had terrible turnout when looking at voters from all parties. When you look at turnout figures from voters of all parties and unaffiliated voters, Montgomery County had the lowest turnout percentage in all of Maryland but we still had the second highest number of actual voters in the state this year. See these tables of overall voter turnout from all parties below:

MARYLAND COUNTIES - % OF ELIGIBLE VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Talbot - 35.22%
2. Kent - 30.60%
3. Dorchester - 29.00% 
4. Queen Anne's - 28.33%
5. Garrett - 26.62%
6. Baltimore County - 24.68% 
7. Carroll - 24.53%
8. Somerset - 24.43%
9. Anne Arundel - 24.25%
10. Caroline - 24.19%
11. Cecil - 23.60%
12. Frederick - 23.34%
13. Baltimore City - 21.65%
14. Charles - 21.47%
15. Harford - 21.26%
16. Wicomico - 20.24%
17. Worcester - 20.21%
18. Allegany - 19.95%
19. Calvert - 19.24%
20. Prince George's - 18.00%
21. Saint Mary's - 16.77%
22. Washington - 16.54%
23. Montgomery - 16.34%

MARYLAND COUNTIES - RAW VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Baltimore County - 105,171
2. Montgomery - 103,000
3. Prince George's - 91,782
4. Baltimore City - 70,508
5. Anne Arundel - 65,396
6. Howard - 38,946
7. Frederick - 34,872
8. Harford - 33,773
9. Carroll - 28,049
10. Charles - 21,441
11. Washington - 14,765
12. Calvert - 11,571
13. Cecil - 11,258
14. Saint Mary's - 10,773
15. Wicomico - 9,495
16. Queen Anne's - 9,297
17. Allegany - 8,460
18. Talbot - 7,714
19. Worcester - 6,424
20. Dorchester - 5,138
21. Garrett - 5,102
22. Caroline - 3,625
23. Kent - 3,257
24. Somerset - 2,803

UPDATED: UNAFFILIATED VOTERS DRIVE DOWN TOTAL TURNOUT PERCENTAGES - Maryland Juice would point readers to some fairly obvious facts that may explain why MoCo had overall turnout of 16%, even while MoCo Democrats turned out at nearly 24%. First, Montgomery County now has 147,000 voters who are not registered with any party. Since Maryland Democrats and Republicans have closed primaries (meaning only registered party members can vote), independent voters have very little reason to turnout for primary elections. Indeed, in MoCo only 2.59% of unaffiliated voters participated in the June 2014 primary election.

Moreover, as Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick pointed out to me, multiple counties have no races where independents are eligible to vote in primaries. Montgomery County, for example, has nonpartisan school board races, while other counties do not. As a result, counties without nonpartisan races will appear to have higher voter turnout percentages than the rest (where anemic turnout from independents drags down the countywide participation rates). The counties without nonpartisan primaries are: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Somerset, and Wicomico.

What's more, MoCo has a much larger number of independent voters than many other Democratic strongholds, according to the Board of Elections stats as of May 2014. Indeed, there are now more MoCo independents (147,904) than Republicans (122,349). Below you can see the numbers of unaffiliated voters in each county:

MARYLAND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS BY COUNTY

1. Montgomery - 147,904
2. Baltimore County - 83,015
3. Anne Arundel - 74,718
4. Prince George's - 60,039
5. Baltimore City - 46,313
6. Howard - 43,623
7. Frederick - 33,625
8. Harford - 30,505
9. Carroll - 21,560
10. Washington - 17,854
11. Charles - 16,399
12. Cecil - 13,249
13. Saint Mary's - 12,767
14. Calvert - 12,012
15. Wicomico - 10,342
16. Worcester - 6,545
17. Allegany - 6,428
18. Queen Anne's - 5,906
19. Talbot - 4,451
20. Caroline - 3,427
21. Dorchester - 2,715
22. Garrett - 2,311
23. Kent - 1,918
24. Somerset - 1,718

It should be obvious that if Montgomery County has significantly more independent voters than other counties, and these voters cannot vote in most races in primary elections, these voters will not turnout (as demonstrated by their 2.59% turnout rate). This clearly drags down MoCo's statewide ranking for voter turnout.


VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION DECLINES SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE MARYLAND GOP - But more importantly, these numbers raise the question about who these independent voters are. Are they disaffected Republicans (aka would-be moderate Republicans who have no home in today's Republican Party)? It is stunning that indies outnumber the GOP in Montgomery County, but then again the era of moderate Republican officials like Connie Morella is now long-gone, mirroring a national trend of partisan realignment.

That the Maryland GOP cannot energize its voters in the vote-rich Democratic strongholds is not a theory, it is fact. Look at the percentage of Maryland Republicans who voted in the June Primaries:

MARYLAND REPUBLICAN TURNOUT BY COUNTY

County	Party	Turnout
Talbot	REP	44.06%
Dorchester	REP	37.76%
Queen Anne's	REP	37.46%
Somerset	REP	34.00%
Garrett	REP	33.53%
Carroll	REP	32.80%
Frederick	REP	31.84%
Kent	REP	31.09%
Caroline	REP	29.43%
Cecil	REP	27.93%
Harford	REP	26.15%
Anne Arundel	REP	25.92%
Allegany	REP	25.57%
Wicomico	REP	24.50%
Worcester	REP	24.46%
Calvert	REP	23.51%
Washington	REP	23.46%
Saint Mary's	REP	21.93%
Baltimore County	REP	20.55%
Charles	REP	20.43%
Howard	REP	19.22%
Montgomery	REP	11.74%
Prince George's	REP	11.23%
Baltimore City	REP	11.00%

UPDATED: THE MARYLAND GOP IS A REGIONAL PARTY - In places like Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City, barely 1 in 10 registered Republicans decided to participate in contested Republican Primary Elections. Furthermore, in all three of those jurisdictions, independents outnumber Republicans:

• Montgomery - 147,904 independents vs. 122,349 Republican
• Baltimore City - 46,313 independents vs. 30,325 Republicans
• Prince George's - 60,039 independents vs. 43,636 Republicans

Interestingly, in democratic-trending Howard County, independents are beginning to approach the same strength as the GOP. This does not bode well for the strength of the Republican electorate in the long-term:

• Howard - 46,623 independents vs. 56,696 Republicans

Given what a large share of votes these counties represent, it seems clear that the Maryland GOP continues on the path of becoming a regional party. But these anemic GOP turnout levels are making us all look bad, since they bring down the overall turnout percentages for our counties.

The obvious solution for the Maryland GOP is to hold open primaries and allow independents to vote -- especially since indies now outnumber MoCo Republicans. But I'm not holding my breath for that.


PRIMARY TURNOUT IS DECLINING NATIONALLY - In the meantime, I would add just one more piece of data for folks to consider. And that is that the hand-wringing over low voter turnout is nothing unique to Maryland. It is happening nationally.  USA Today recently posted a graph of declining party primary turnout across the nation (courtesy of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate):

So take a deep breath, folks. There is much more going on with voter turnout both nationally, regionally, and locally than has really been discussed in many of the news articles I've read recently. I'll be back with a JuiceBlender before too long.  Thanks for sticking around!

POLL: Maryland Democrats & Republicans Divided on Pot Legalization, Gun Control, Immigration & Marriage Equality

Goucher College released a new poll last week highlighting Marylanders' opinions on a range of issues including marijuana, marriage equality, gun control and immigration reform. Below you can see the results of the poll, including breakdowns by political party affiliation and race. I've flagged a few of the more interesting results below.

STATEWIDE SUMMARY: The major items in Goucher's statewide poll reveal that:

• 72% of Marylanders think marriage equality either changed things for the better or had no effect, while only 23% think it changed things for the worse. 

• On gun control, 54.5% of voters think the new gun regulations were about right or not strict enough, while only 26.6% think they were too strict. 

• On immigration, 53.4% of Marylanders support allowing undocumented immigrants to keep their jobs and apply for citizenship, while only 25.9% think we should kick undocumented immigrants out of their jobs and the country. 

• On the War on Drugs, 50.9% of Marylanders support or strongly support marijuana legalization, whereas 40.3% of residents oppose or strongly oppose legalization. 

• But on the issue of whether jail time is an appropriate penalty for marijuana possession, only 5.8% of Marylanders support criminalizing marijuana. In contrast, 82.6% of residents support changing the penalty for possession to a ticket or rehab.

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS DIVIDED ON MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, GUN CONTROL, IMMIGRATION AND MARRIAGE EQUALITY - When you consider that Maryland is effectively a one-party state (where most high-profile races are won in the Democratic Primary), it becomes useful to take the statewide polling numbers above with a grain of salt. Indeed, when you restrict the survey results to only Democrats or Republicans, the results shift quite a bit and reveal partisan divides on these hot-button issues.

A strong majority of Democrats, Independents and third party residents support marijuana legalization, whereas Republicans were the only group where respondents were more likely to oppose than to support legalization. But even still, nearly 2 in 5 Republicans support legalization (aka almost half). On immigration, a super-majority of Democrats support allowing undocumented immigrants to stay and seek citizenship, but Republicans were divided with 39% seeking to kick them out, and 31% allowing them to stay and seek citizenship. You can see my table summarizing the survey results by party below:

Democrats

• 64% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 57% Support Marijuana Legalization
• 44% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 35% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 35% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 20% Support Kicking Undocumented Immigrants Out Of Their Jobs & the Country
• 18% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 13% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

Republicans

• 55% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 39% Want Undocumented Immigrants Out of their Jobs & the Country
• 39% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 38% Support Marijuana Legalization
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 34% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 31% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 19% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• 18% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

RESULTS BY RACE FOR MARIJUANA AND IMMIGRATION - There are a few more interesting items in Goucher's polling crosstabs (which you can read below), but I would note a couple tidbits. A strong majority of black Marylanders support marijuana legalization, though a majority of white Marylanders also support legalization. The non-white/non-black category is the only race group where more respondents opposed than supported legalization, albeit by a slim margin of 3%. Black Marylanders were also the strongest supporters of immigrant rights, with 62% of black respondents supporting allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in their jobs and seek citizenship. You can read the polling memos below:

Goucher College November 2013 Poll Crosstabs on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

Goucher College November 2013 Poll on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

A Closer Look at New Polling Numbers in Maryland's Race for Governor // Race, Gender & Political Party Divides in Name ID

Yesterday Maryland Juice published a polling memo from Goucher College that included early name identification data in the heated race for Governor. Today we decided to dig a little deeper into Goucher's poll to provide some early insight into any differences in name ID based on party identification, race and gender. Before we begin our discussion, it is worth noting that none of the candidates has invested any noteworthy amounts of spending on media at this early stage, so we expect these numbers to shift (perhaps dramatically) once the campaigning begins in earnest.

NAME ID AND POLITICAL PARTY: In our polling write-up yesterday, we noted the following name id for gubernatorial candidates among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated/third party voters:

• 62 percent recognize “Anthony Brown”
• 58 percent recognize “Doug Gansler”
• 49 percent recognize “Dutch Ruppersberger”
• 31 percent recognize “David Craig”
• 23 percent recognize “Charles Lollar”
• 22 percent recognize “Ron George”
• 13 percent recognize “Heather Mizeur”

But it is worth remembering that Maryland has closed political party primaries, so that only Democrats and Republicans can vote in their respective primary elections in June 2014. If you restrict the survey results to only Democrats and only Republicans, the results in the name ID poll shift in interesting ways. Note the name ID survey results when restricted to Democrats and Republicans below:

Name ID Among Democrats

1. Anthony Brown 67%
2. Doug Gansler 56%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 45%
4. Heather Mizeur 15%

Name ID Among Republicans

1. David Craig 39%
2. Charles Lollar 26%
3. Ron George 25%

Note: Gansler & Ruppersberger both have higher name ID among Republicans. When you restrict the survey to only Democrats, Brown and Mizeur both see increases in their name ID, while Gansler and Ruppersberger see declines. In the Republican field, all three candidates have higher name ID among Republicans than Democrats.

NAME ID AND RACE: The name ID results shift once again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the race of the respondents (details below):

Name ID Among Black residents

1. Anthony Brown - 68%
2. Doug Gansler - 50%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 47%
4. Heather Mizeur - 11%

Name ID Among White residents

1. Doug Gansler - 64%
2. Anthony Brown - 59%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 52%
4. Heather Mizeur - 15%

Name ID Among Non-White/Black residents

1. Anthony Brown - 64%
2. Doug Gansler - 45%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 38%
4. Heather Mizeur - 9%

Note:  When factoring in race, Brown sees a fairly substantial advantage in name ID among black and non-white/non-black residents, while Gansler sees a healthy lead among white residents. But note that these results reflect the name ID among residents of all political parties, and we can surmise that Gansler's advantage among white residents is enhanced by recognition within the pool of white Republican residents.


NAME ID AND GENDER: The name ID results shift in interesting ways yet again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the gender of the respondents (details below):

Name ID Among Males

1. Anthony Brown 58%
2. Doug Gansler 58%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 51%
4. Heather Mizeur 13%

Name ID Among Females

1. Anthony Brown 66%
2. Doug Gansler 58%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 48%
4. Heather Mizeur 14%

Note: When looking at gender, Anthony Brown and Doug Gansler both have equal name ID among male residents, abut Brown has an 8-point advantage among women over Gansler. Ruppersberger is slightly more known among men than women, and the same holds true (to a slight degree) for Mizeur. Maryland Juice expects the Democratic Primary voting population to skew disproportionately toward women.

The Goucher poll includes the following notice and disclaimer about methodology and funding:

GOUCHER POLL: To ensure all Maryland citizens are represented, the Goucher Poll is conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) of a stratified random sample using landline and cellular telephone numbers. The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, which is housed in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Goucher College. Directed by Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in the state by providing neutral and nonbiased information on citizen perceptions and opinions.

You can see the polling memos on the race, gender and party crosstabs below:

Goucher November 2013 Maryland Gubernatorial Name ID Poll: Race Crosstabs

Goucher November 2013 Maryland Gubernatorial Name ID Poll: Gender & Party Crosstabs

ROLL CALL: Maryland House & Senate Approve Millions in Tax Cuts for Lockheed // PLUS: Candidates Consider Impact on 2014

UPDATE: Shortly after posting this article, several Maryland Juice sources indicated that three lawmakers changed their votes before publication of the "official record." As a result, the unofficial verified tally we published below needs to be updated. The affected lawmakers are: Del. Wendell Beitzel (District 1A Republican), Del. Ron George (District 30 Republican), and Del. Sheila Hixson (District 20 Democrat).

Delegates Beitzel and George switched from "no" votes to "yes" votes in support of the Lockheed welfare bill. Delegate Hixson's vote switched from a "yes" vote to a "no" vote against the Lockheed welfare bill. Below we provide an updated version of the Lockheed welfare roll call and analysis below. We also provide a screencap of the original roll call, so that you can see the adjustments.

Today the Maryland House of Delegates passed a multimillion dollar corporate welfare bill for Pentagon contractor Lockheed Martin. The taxpayer handout was approved in a 102-35 vote in the State House, over the objections of advocacy organizations who claim to have generated thousands of constituent emails urging lawmakers to reject the proposal. The vote was a similarly lopsided 37-9 a few weeks ago in the State Senate, but in both chambers Republicans and Democrats alike crossed the aisle to cut taxes for the cash-flush multinational corporation. Apparently the two parties can agree on something!

[  TELL GOV. O'MALLEY TO VETO THE LOCKHEED WELFARE PLAN ]

ROLL CALL & ANALYSIS: Below Maryland Juice produces the full House & Senate roll call on the Lockheed welfare bill (sorted by legislative district), along with a few quick analyses and insights into the bizarre voting patterns that emerged on the issue. Indeed, there are some interesting political dynamics embedded within the Lockheed vote. Here are a few highlights from the roll call:

• BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR LOCKHEED WELFARE, BUT GOP MORE OPPOSED - In the Maryland House, the Lockheed welfare bill passed in a 102 to 35 vote. The 35 votes against corporate welfare came from 24 Democrats and 11 Republicans. But it is worth noting that between the two parties, a larger percentage of GOP House members voted against the Lockheed bill than Democrats (26% of Republicans vs 24% of Democrats). Indeed, Maryland Dems should feel more shame than they seem to about approving such a crass corporate giveaway.

• HALF OF MOCO'S HOUSE MEMBERS VOTED AGAINST THE LOCKHEED BILL - Notably, the Lockheed welfare bill was mysteriously filed as a statewide bill this year even though it only impacts a single facility in Montgomery County. Ordinarily, such a bill would be considered a local bill and deference would be given to lawmakers representing Montgomery County. But it appears that MoCo's legislative delegation was extremely divided on whether to give a handout to Lockheed - even though the company is headquartered there. 3 of 8 MoCo Senators and 12 of 24 MoCo Delegates voted against the Lockheed plan. Here's a fascinating round-up showing how Montgomery County's all-Democratic delegation voted:

• DISTRICT 14 - NO: Sen. Karen Montgomery & Del. Eric Luedtke; YES: Del. Anne Kaiser & Del. Craig Zucker

• DISTRICT 15 - NO: Nobody; YES: Sen. Rob Garagiola, Del. Kathleen Dumais, Del. Brian Feldman & Del. Aruna Miller

• DISTRICT 16 - NO: Sen. Brian Frosh, Del. Bill Frick & Del. Susan Lee; YES: Del. Ariana Kelly

• DISTRICT 17 - NO: Del. Luiz Simmons;  YES: Sen. Jennie Forehand, Del. Kumar Barve & Del. Jim Gilchrest

• DISTRICT 18 - NO: Del. Al Carr & Del. Jeff Waldstreicher;  YES: Sen. Rich Madaleno, NOT VOTING: Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez

• DISTRICT 19 - NO: Del. Sam Arora, Del. Bonnie Cullison & Del. Ben Kramer, YES: Sen. Roger Manno

• DISTRICT 20 - NO: Sen. Jamie Raskin, Del. Sheila Hixson, Del. Tom Hucker & Del. Heather Mizeur; YES: Nobody

• DISTRICT 39 - NO: Nobody; YES: Sen. Nancy King, Del. Charles Barkley, Del. Kirill Reznik & Del. Shane Robinson 

• EVERY MOCO LAWMAKER SEEKING HIGHER OFFICE VOTED AGAINST LOCKHEED WELFARE - It is worth noting that every single Montgomery County lawmaker who is seriously weighing a 2014 run for higher office voted against the Lockheed welfare plan. Sen. Brian Frosh & Del. Bill Frick are both running for Attorney General and voted against the handout. Del. Susan Lee is seeking Frosh's State Senate seat and also voted against the Lockheed plan. Notably, all three of these lawmakers represent the area encompassing Lockheed's headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland. Likewise, Del. Heather Mizeur is running for Governor and voted against the Lockheed bill, as did Del. Luiz Simmons, who is rumored to be preparing for a 2014 State Senate campaign. 

• THREE OUT OF 4 ATTORNEY GENERAL CANDIDATES VOTED AGAINST LOCKHEED BILL - At last count, there were at least four Democrats plotting runs for 2014 Attorney General: Sen. Brian Frosh and Delegates Aisha Braveboy, Jon Cardin & Bill Frick. Frosh, Braveboy and Frick all voted against the Lockheed plan, leaving Del. Cardin as the lone Lockheed supporter in the AG's race.

• TWO SPONSORS OF LOCKHEED BILL VOTED AGAINST IT - Notably, two sponsors of the Lockheed welfare plan voted against their own bill: Delegates Bill Frick and Eric Luedtke. Luedtke may have been swayed by the pleas of some of his supporters to reject the bill, but Frick's "no" vote is more interesting -- because by many accounts he was the early driving force behind the bill in the House. Maryland Juice thinks 2014 may have something to do with this change, but what do I know.... This outcome was foreshadowed by the House Ways & Means Committee vote on the Lockheed bill, where both Frick & Luedtke surprised observers by voting against the welfare bill. 

NOTE: If Gov. Martin O'Malley signs this ridiculous corporate tax cut into law, Montgomery County officials will be forced to forgo $4.5 million in revenue every ten years in perpetuity. Notably, Lockheed Martin is already getting reimbursed by the Feds for the tax payments they are now trying to avoid paying. Maryland Juice asked a few MoCo politicos to weigh in on this matter, including some County Councilmembers and potential 2014 House candidates. We'll publish their commentary in part 2 of this article soon. In the meantime, check out the Lockheed roll call below -- we'll eventually post it permanently at www.LockheedWelfare.com:

LOCKHEED MARTIN WELFARE BILL 

BELOW: FULL MARYLAND HOUSE & SENATE ROLL CALL

JuiceBlender: Post-Election Analyses of Maryland Results // PUNDIT CONSENSUS: Maryland Republican Party Out of Touch

UPDATE: Maryland Juice just caught some interesting post-election musings from Joe Steffen (aka "the Prince of Darkness"). Steffen was a former operative for GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich. Like rightwing Gazette columnist Blair Lee, the Prince of Darkness compares the current state of Maryland Republicans to the now extinct Whig Party. Check out Steffen's thoughts below, and note that Maryland Juice agrees that a new focus on libertarian-minded views might present the GOP their only way to navigate social issues in Maryland (and perhaps nationally):

PRINCE OF DARKNESS: It’s very simple. The GOP must – MUST – Libertarianize itself as concerns the social issues. It must find a way to wean itself from the social conservative issues as many of the current stances taken by the Party are killing the Party with their demands for absolute purity....

Among a number of other issues the GOP simply MUST deal with is the Hispanic population.... And by “deal with,” I mean in ways other than sending Sheriff Billy Bob McDoughnut after them to check out their papers. The Latinos are here. They are not going anywhere. And they are growing – and voting Democratic in huge numbers. Deal with them, Republicans – or there’s another issue sending you the way of the Whigs.

Below Maryland Juice compiles a number of interesting analyses of the Free State's 2012 election results. The day after the election, we declared that the results showed Maryland Republicans are out-of-touch and have been living in a bubble, and it appears that most politicos agree. See a few comments about the Maryland election results below:

JUICE #1: BALTIMORE SUN CALLS RESULTS A "REALITY CHECK" FOR MD GOP - Yesterday, The Baltimore Sun published an editorial pointing out the numerous delusions that Maryland Republicans adopted as reality while they campaigned against the Dream Act and marriage equality. Their opinion piece blared that the "referendum mania in 2012 showed there is no silent conservative majority" (excerpt below):

BALTIMORE SUN: When Maryland Republicans, led by freshman Del. Neil Parrott of Washington County, succeeded in putting the Dream Act on the ballot, state GOP Chairman Alex Mooney called it a "game changer" and a counterweight to Democrats who "think that they can do what they want." When Republicans got the congressional maps on the ballot, Del. Steve Schuh, an Anne Arundel County Republican, called it a "major change to our democracy in Maryland," adding, "we have an arrogant majority...."

But as it turns out, the Democratic majority in Annapolis was pretty well in tune with the voters when it came to in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, same-sex marriage and the redrawing of the state's congressional districts.... The lesson here for the GOP is that Maryland is not a conservative state, and there is not a silent majority that disapproves of things like the Dream Act....

JUICE #2: PUNDITS SAY RESULTS SHOW MARYLAND'S PROGRESSIVE STREAK & DEMOCRATIC DOMINANCE - Capital News Service had an interesting round-up of post-election comments from various politicos. Their piece highlighted contrasting views on whether Maryland's election results were a function of a progressive streak in voters or simply Democratic dominance (excerpt below):

CAPITAL NEWS SERVICE: “(Gov. Martin) O’Malley and the Democrats have complete control,” said Blair Lee, political columnist at The Gazette newspapers.... “Republicans are almost now gone the way of the Whig Party in terms of influence and presence....”

Christopher Summers, president of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, a Rockville-based think tank, agreed that Tuesday night’s results emphasized one-party dominance in the state. “In terms of Republicans and messaging, they need to have a very serious meeting and realize their messaging is not working, their leadership is not working,” he said....

“Maryland is a more progressive state than any other,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland....

JUICE #3: MARYLAND RESULTS DEBUNK MYTH OF BLACK VOTER OPPOSITION TO MARRIAGE EQUALITY - The Gazette yesterday published a piece noting that African American voters in Maryland were instrumental to the marriage equality victory. Contrary to popular belief, jurisdictions with dense black voter populations did not vote against Question 6 in the numbers opponents predicted. In Baltimore, voters appear to be more closely aligned with Maryland's progressive voter base (excerpt below):

GAZETTE: In Maryland, the measure, known as Question 6, received 57 percent support in Baltimore but just 49 percent support in Prince George’s County.... More than 60 percent of the population in each area is African-American, a group widely assumed to oppose same-sex marriage, observers say. Tuesday’s returns, including a stronger-than-expected-showing in Prince George’s, debunked that notion, said Del. Mary L. Washington (D-Dist. 43) of Baltimore....

The Baltimore win was particularly significant since many black church leaders from the city had spoken against the measure, said Donald Norris, chair of the Department of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.... Overall the passage of Question 6 reaffirmed the image of Maryland as a deep-blue state, Norris said. “On social issues, the state is trend much more liberal than many others,” he said....

The measure’s victory in Frederick County also took some by surprise. “I am very surprised that in Frederick County people voted for it in the majority,” said Steve Gottlieb, chairman of the Frederick County Republican Central Committee....

JUICE #4: MARYLAND GOP CHAIR ALEX MOONEY TRIES TO CLAIM VICTORY AFTER PROGRESSIVE ELECTION RESULTS - Politicos are scoffing at a post-election message that Maryland GOP Chair Alex Mooney sent out declaring victory for Free State Republicans. Mooney pointed to Cecil County GOP victories as proof. Check out some of his delusions below (excerpt below):

ALEX MOONEY: Fellow Republicans, I would like to first thank you for all of your hard work during this election season. While November 6th didn't bring all of the results we sought, Maryland Republicans continued to succeed--notably in Cecil County where I am pleased to inform you that Tari Moore, a Republican, won the newly created County Executive position. Republicans Robert Hodge and Alan McCarthy also won both County Council seats in Cecil County which were up for election on Tuesday.

We now have over 1 million registered Republicans in Maryland--and that number is growing.... What's more, we were able to petition three of Martin O'Malley's signature pieces of legislation to referendum.... All of this success is a direct result of your efforts...

We had a great crop of candidates in this cycle ... their candidacies laid the groundwork for the 2014 elections and changing the conversation in Maryland, which has been one-sided for far too long....

The Maryland GOP's Executive Director also attempted to spin the results as a success for his party. Check out the remarks in The Capital Gazette:

CAPITAL GAZETTE: Despite going 0-for-3 in the Maryland GOP’s Tuesday referendum rollout, Republican Party officials say putting the Dream Act, same-sex marriage and congressional redistricting up for statewide votes was a successful strategy....

“When people say Tuesday’s election was a loss for the GOP, it absolutely was not. I didn’t expect the headline in the Annapolis Capital (Wednesday) to be ‘Maryland Republicans have overwhelming success,’ but it ought to be....”

“I don’t know how you could look through that narrow of a lens and think it was a good thing for the Republican Party,” said House Speaker Michael E. Busch, D-Annapolis....

Some Republican activists in Maryland are incredulous about the claims of victory from the state party and are placing the blame at the feet of Alex Mooney. See a couple of Tweets below:

More analysis of Maryland election results soon!