Gov. Larry Hogan Tows Trump & Carson's Party Line on Syrian Refugees // Will HoCo's Exec Allan Kittleman Break With GOP?

By Matt Verghese

A SHAME IN MARYLAND: In the week following the tragic terrorist attacks in Paris, 30 Governors have said they won’t allow Syrian refugees to resettle in their states until security concerns are concerned. All but one of those governors have been a Republican.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan - who is huddling with his fellow Republican Governors at their conference in Las Vegas this week - had initially sought more time to make a “reasoned and careful decision“ but a day later followed the direction of  almost all the Republican candidates for President and called on federal authorities to “cease any additional settlements of refugees from Syria in Maryland.”

Granted, Hogan - nor any of his fellow governors - don’t really have anything with whether refugees are allowed into the US or where they are resettled. Though they can make the lives of women and children fleeing a violent civil war even more miserable. Also it doesn’t seem to matter that of the 2 million refugees welcomed in the US since 1990, zero have been involved in a terrorist attack.

THE ACTUAL SCREENING PROCESS FOR SYRIAN REFUGEES: The US - which has a stringent 18-24 months process to vet and approve refugees - admitted less than 200 Syrian refugees between 2011 and 2014, and only recently quickened the pace. According to the US State Department, 39 such refugees have resettled in Maryland since 2011 - 79% of them arriving in 2015. The United States had planned to accept 10,000 refugees in 2016. In contrast, French President Francois Hollande said his country would accept 30,000, and expend 50 million euros to support refugee housing.

MARYLAND DEMOCRATS RESPOND: Hogan’s decision has drawn widespread criticism from Democrats. Rep. Cummings called Hogan’s actions “heartless” and “a betrayal of America’s values” while Rep. Van Hollen decried the Governor’s “shameful” demagoguery. Former Governor O’Malley - who was the first Democratic candidate for President to call on the Obama Administration to accept more refugees fleeing Syria’s civil war -- called on Americans to “overcome fear and remain true to [our] values.”

Local Democratic leaders have also sought to separate themselves from the Governor. Baltimore Mayor Rawlings-Blake released the following statement (emphasis mine):

BALTIMORE MAYOR STEPHANIE RAWLINGS-BLAKE: Baltimore, Maryland and the United States have proud traditions of welcoming refugees seeking assistance from crises around the world. There are few among us who can claim that their ancestors were indigenous to the United States. Welcoming immigrants and New Americans is a critical part of my strategy to grow Baltimore, and I hope that refugees from Syria will look to our city as a potential place to call home.

This call was echoed today by the Democratic members of the Howard County Council. On Thursday, In a letter to Governor Hogan, the four Democratic members of the Council - Mary Kay Sigaty, Calvin Ball, Jenn Terrasa and Jon Weinstein - stated (emphasis mine):

HOCO DEMOCRATIC COUNCILMEMBERS: In Howard County, we know that our diversity is our strength. Your request to end the settlement of Syrian refugees under the guise of protecting Marylanders erodes that strength by succumbing to fear—a fear that leads to overt racial profiling, which is an affront to our values. Opening our doors to those who are fleeing violence does not endanger our safety; it shows our compassion and hope.

1 in 5 of Howard County’s residents are foreign born and come from over 90 countries. None of Maryland’s current Syrian refugees are located in the County.

WAITING FOR KITTLEMAN: A spokeswoman for Governor Hogan reiterated his stance on Friday. There has been no response from Republican County Executive Allan Kittleman. Blinding following national Trump-Carson Republican herd not only threatens Hogan and Kittleman image as as kinder, gentler Republicans - but their compelling sales pitch as non-ideological, post-partisan executives. Sure, there may be no direct political risk (and as the Huffington Post wrote - hating refugees is pretty much as American as apple pie) - but calls into question their reputation. Hogan and Kittleman still need Democrats to govern - and and mean-spirited decisions could poison the well and erode trust.

MoCo Republicans Retreat on Voter Suppression Strategy // Board of Elections Chair Will Reinstate Two Early Vote Locations

By Scott Goldberg

Maryland Juice previously wrote about a Republican voter suppression strategy in Montgomery County. The new GOP majority on the county Board of Elections (MCBOE) attempted to eliminate two high-performing early vote locations in MoCo and replace them with locations in less densely populated neighborhoods that are (coincidentally) closer to Republicans. But last Thursday, the state Board of Elections (SBOE) rejected the MoCo Republican plan and directed the MCBOE to come up with a new proposal.

Today Montgomery County Council President George Leventhal reported on Facebook that MoCo's Republican Board of Elections chair is retreating on his voter suppression plan:

GEORGE LEVENTHAL: County Board of Elections Chair Jim Shalleck called to say the Board will restore both disputed early voting sites (Praisner & Lawton). Mr. Shalleck also said the Board would ask the state for a 10th early voting site in Potomac.

The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee also sent out the following press release:

*******BOE REINSTATES ORIGINAL 9 EARLY VOTING SITES********
Legislature Will Propose Adding One More Center

The Montgomery County Board of Elections (BOE) voted to reinstate 8 of the original early voting centers from the 2014 election and the Wheaton Firehouse to replace the Wheaton Community Center, which is undergoing rennovation. This includes the Praisner and Lawton centers advocated by the MCDCC, County Council, and State Legislators, as well as numerous community members and non-partisan community groups. The decision means that they will submit the 9 centers to the State BOE for approval at their special meeting on Friday October 23.
 
A critical part of this decision is that the MCDCC and State Delegation made a commitment to submit legislation at the beginning of the Legislative Session in January to add a 10th early voting center in Montgomery County for the 2016 election. The County Council also made a commitment to establish a 10th early voting center.
 
Although the decision by the Board today will not be final until it is approved by the State BOE, voters in Montgomery County should be pleased with the outcome.
 
We will be in touch after the State BOE meeting on Friday to report on the final decision.
 
Darrell Anderson
MCDCC Chair

TURNOUT ANALYSIS: What's Really Going On? // Maryland Juice Dissects Voter Turnout in the June 2014 Primary Elections

UPDATE:  When I first went live with the post below, I didn't have complete numbers of independent voters in each Maryland county. We've now updated the post with these figures (Hat-tip to Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick for pointing us in the right direction), along with an explanation of how counties without nonpartisan primaries have inflated turnout percentages. I've also added some information on counties where independent voters are outpacing Republicans. Scroll down for these updates below.

THE FUTURE OF MARYLAND JUICE: Alrighty folks, after months of absence, Maryland Juice is back in action! Before I kick-off a lengthy article about voter turnout in Maryland, I thought I'd take a second to discuss some changes that this blog will be pursuing in the coming months.

In case you haven't heard, I won my Democratic Primary election for the House of Delegates, and that means that by the time the legislative session starts in January 2015, I'll have to step back from my writing duties. But not to worry -- over the course of the next few months, I hope to introduce a new set of writers who will keep the Juice torch and information pipeline burning into the future. In 2015, I  may still write an article here or there, but likely not with the vigor and frequency you've become accustomed to (for various obvious reasons). In any case, keep your eyes open as we roll out new Juicers in 2014! Now onto my first article in over three months....

MARYLAND JUICE 2014 PRIMARY ELECTION TURNOUT ANALYSIS - Numerous political pundits have fretted about Maryland's declining voter turnout, especially in Democratic strongholds like Montgomery County. The Washington Post's Bill Turque commented (excerpt below):

WASHINGTON POST: There’s been much opining among Montgomery’s elected officials about the anemic primary turnout last month, when just 16 percent of registered voters came to the polls. They cited, among other factors, the inconvenience of the new June 24 election date, the lack of urgent issues, and a less-than compelling primary race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination at the top of the ballot....

Turque's article was triggered by a feisty piece from Center Maryland columnist and Montgomery County resident Josh Kurtz (excerpt below):

CENTER MARYLAND: At presidential election time, voter turnout in Montgomery County is pretty decent: Almost three-quarters of enrolled voters showed up at the polls on Election Day 2012 to choose between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney....  But when it comes to acting locally, when it comes to selecting their leaders at the state and county levels, Montgomery County residents fail miserably.

In the recent statewide primary, just 16 percent of registered voters in Montgomery County bothered to vote. Sixteen percent!.... That’s lower voter turnout than in Garrett County (27 percent), where cousins marry, or in Somerset County (24 percent), where the raging issue is chicken waste, or in Baltimore city (22 percent), where they’re selling drugs on every street corner, or in Prince George’s County (18 percent), where every public official has a palm extended.....

But to accurately build a solution to the problem of "low turnout," it helps to understand what's really going on.  Indeed, rushed analyses have led some to hastily conclude that recent voting reforms like early voting were "unsuccessful" and that we are in some sort of existential crisis in Maryland with respect to civic engagement. However, many variables impacting voter turnout (eg: demographic changes, resident turnover, and the national mood) are out of state and local policymakers' control. Below are a few points to consider about turnout trends in Maryland and Montgomery County.

RAW DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELECTION DAY TURNOUT BY COUNTY: First, not all voters are the same. Turnout in Maryland varied wildly depending on your party registration, and all is not what it seems. In terms of raw Democratic Party turnout, simply more Democrats from Montgomery County voted at the polls on election day than Democrats from any other county:

COUNTY	PARTY	PRIMARY TURNOUT
Montgomery	DEM	68,179
Prince George's	DEM	64,982
Baltimore County	DEM	59,980
Baltimore City	DEM	51,730
Anne Arundel	DEM	24,655
Howard	DEM	19,193
Charles	DEM	12,314
Harford	DEM	11,795
Frederick	DEM	11,201
Carroll	DEM	6,306
Calvert	DEM	4,451
Washington	DEM	4,433
Saint Mary's	DEM	4,023
Cecil	DEM	3,508
Wicomico	DEM	3,349
Allegany	DEM	2,748
Queen Anne's	DEM	2,303
Worcester	DEM	2,173
Dorchester	DEM	1,952
Talbot	DEM	1,888
Kent	DEM	1,299
Caroline	DEM	1,018
Somerset	DEM	919
Garrett	DEM	790

If you include early voters, Montgomery County was second place in Maryland for raw Democratic turnout - Prince George's was first, Baltimore County was third, and Baltimore City was fourth.

% OF ELIGIBLE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT BY PARTY - One caveat to MoCo's large Democratic turnout should be noted. Even though more MoCo Dems turned out than Dems around the state, Montgomery County's turnout ranking does indeed drop when looking at the percentage of eligible Democrats who participated (as opposed to the absolute number of Democrats who voted).

But even still, in terms of the percentage of Democrats turning out for the primary election, Montgomery County was in a respectable 8th place out of 24 counties (including early voters). Of the large jurisdictions, only Baltimore County Democrats turned out at a rate higher than Montgomery. Prince George's was in 14th place, and Baltimore City was in 17th place:

COUNTY	PARTY	TURNOUT_TOTAL
Kent	DEM	30.22%
Queen Anne's	DEM	28.68%
Howard	DEM	27.77%
Talbot	DEM	26.94%
Baltimore County	DEM	26.51%
Charles	DEM	26.18%
Frederick	DEM	25.05%
Montgomery	DEM	23.90%
Harford	DEM	23.77%
Carroll	DEM	23.55%
Calvert	DEM	23.08%
Dorchester	DEM	22.90%
Anne Arundel	DEM	22.85%
Baltimore City	DEM	22.75%
Garrett	DEM	20.79%
Allegany	DEM	19.90%
Prince George's	DEM	19.46%
Cecil	DEM	19.02%
Saint Mary's	DEM	18.96%
Worcester	DEM	18.49%
Caroline	DEM	18.44%
Somerset	DEM	17.70%
Wicomico	DEM	16.82%
Washington	DEM	15.80%

MOCO'S POPULATION SURGE DISTORTS ITS TURNOUT PERCENTAGES: In other words, MoCo's sheer size of population means that we have among the most Democrats who vote in Maryland, but we also have a large number of MoCo Democrats who do not vote, thereby bringing down Montgomery County's turnout percentages. Why might this be?

MoCo Democrat Paul Bessel recently launched a new blog where he delved into some of these turnout dynamics. One of the facts he pointed out is that Montgomery County has had a huge surge in Democratic voter registrations over the last 14 years. Based on his graph below, MoCo had about 230,000 Democrats in 2000 compared with about 355,000 in 2014:

NUMBER OF MOCO DEMOCRATS VOTING BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN OVER 2 DECADES - MoCo Democrats have basically voted in equal numbers over the last couple decades, even while our turnout rate has dropped. How can that be? Some historical Democratic turnout numbers provided by Jonathan Shurberg provide some insight.

Here is one telling comparison. In 1990, roughly 86,000 MoCo Democrats voted out of 195,000. In 2014, roughly 84,000 MoCo Democrats voted. So the raw turnout is almost the same, but today there are 354,000 Democrats on the rolls in Montgomery County.

Montgomery County Democratic Turnout (Gubernatorial Primary Years)

• 1990: 86,167 turnout out of 195,523 registered Dems (44.07%)
• 1994: 89,452 turnout out of 217,007 registered Dems (41.22%)
• 1998: 75,485 turnout out of 227,863 registered Dems (33.13%)
• 2002: 110,518 turnout out of 246,779 registered Dems (44.78%)
• 2006: 108,337 turnout out of 271,008 registered Dems (39.98%)
• 2010: 83,827 turnout out of 321,759 registered Dems (26.05%)
• 2014: 84,622 turnout out of 354,078 registered Dems (23.90%)

It is worth noting that the two election cycles with unusually high turnout for MoCo Democrats both occurred during the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld era (2002-2006). Extrapolate what you will from that data point.

A PROBLEM FOR THE NEW MONTGOMERY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE - What all of this tells me is that as MoCo's population has surged over the last couple decades, we have likely failed to engage all of the new Democratic registrants that have chosen to reside here.  MoCo's Democratic turnout stayed the same over 24 years even though we added over 150,000 new Democrats to the voter rolls (almost twice as many as vote in Primaries).

Indeed, the vast majority of candidates seeking office in Montgomery County (and everywhere else) spend most of their resources contacting voters with a demonstrated history of voting in Democratic Primaries (aka the decisive elections). As a result, save for the occasional nonprofit voter mobilization drive, there is really nobody trying to pump primary turnout by engaging new registrants and less likely voters in primaries. This seems like a challenge for MoCo's new Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) to tackle. After all, we are living in a new world in Maryland politics, where literally zero Republicans hold elected office in Montgomery County. It seems sensible that the MCDCC should shift its activities to meet the evolving needs of our county's politics.


SO WHY DOES MOCO HAVE THE OVERALL LOWEST VOTER TURNOUT RATE IN MARYLAND? - Okay, so now that we've got the Democratic turnout analysis out of the way, it still remains true that MoCo had terrible turnout when looking at voters from all parties. When you look at turnout figures from voters of all parties and unaffiliated voters, Montgomery County had the lowest turnout percentage in all of Maryland but we still had the second highest number of actual voters in the state this year. See these tables of overall voter turnout from all parties below:

MARYLAND COUNTIES - % OF ELIGIBLE VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Talbot - 35.22%
2. Kent - 30.60%
3. Dorchester - 29.00% 
4. Queen Anne's - 28.33%
5. Garrett - 26.62%
6. Baltimore County - 24.68% 
7. Carroll - 24.53%
8. Somerset - 24.43%
9. Anne Arundel - 24.25%
10. Caroline - 24.19%
11. Cecil - 23.60%
12. Frederick - 23.34%
13. Baltimore City - 21.65%
14. Charles - 21.47%
15. Harford - 21.26%
16. Wicomico - 20.24%
17. Worcester - 20.21%
18. Allegany - 19.95%
19. Calvert - 19.24%
20. Prince George's - 18.00%
21. Saint Mary's - 16.77%
22. Washington - 16.54%
23. Montgomery - 16.34%

MARYLAND COUNTIES - RAW VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Baltimore County - 105,171
2. Montgomery - 103,000
3. Prince George's - 91,782
4. Baltimore City - 70,508
5. Anne Arundel - 65,396
6. Howard - 38,946
7. Frederick - 34,872
8. Harford - 33,773
9. Carroll - 28,049
10. Charles - 21,441
11. Washington - 14,765
12. Calvert - 11,571
13. Cecil - 11,258
14. Saint Mary's - 10,773
15. Wicomico - 9,495
16. Queen Anne's - 9,297
17. Allegany - 8,460
18. Talbot - 7,714
19. Worcester - 6,424
20. Dorchester - 5,138
21. Garrett - 5,102
22. Caroline - 3,625
23. Kent - 3,257
24. Somerset - 2,803

UPDATED: UNAFFILIATED VOTERS DRIVE DOWN TOTAL TURNOUT PERCENTAGES - Maryland Juice would point readers to some fairly obvious facts that may explain why MoCo had overall turnout of 16%, even while MoCo Democrats turned out at nearly 24%. First, Montgomery County now has 147,000 voters who are not registered with any party. Since Maryland Democrats and Republicans have closed primaries (meaning only registered party members can vote), independent voters have very little reason to turnout for primary elections. Indeed, in MoCo only 2.59% of unaffiliated voters participated in the June 2014 primary election.

Moreover, as Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick pointed out to me, multiple counties have no races where independents are eligible to vote in primaries. Montgomery County, for example, has nonpartisan school board races, while other counties do not. As a result, counties without nonpartisan races will appear to have higher voter turnout percentages than the rest (where anemic turnout from independents drags down the countywide participation rates). The counties without nonpartisan primaries are: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Somerset, and Wicomico.

What's more, MoCo has a much larger number of independent voters than many other Democratic strongholds, according to the Board of Elections stats as of May 2014. Indeed, there are now more MoCo independents (147,904) than Republicans (122,349). Below you can see the numbers of unaffiliated voters in each county:

MARYLAND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS BY COUNTY

1. Montgomery - 147,904
2. Baltimore County - 83,015
3. Anne Arundel - 74,718
4. Prince George's - 60,039
5. Baltimore City - 46,313
6. Howard - 43,623
7. Frederick - 33,625
8. Harford - 30,505
9. Carroll - 21,560
10. Washington - 17,854
11. Charles - 16,399
12. Cecil - 13,249
13. Saint Mary's - 12,767
14. Calvert - 12,012
15. Wicomico - 10,342
16. Worcester - 6,545
17. Allegany - 6,428
18. Queen Anne's - 5,906
19. Talbot - 4,451
20. Caroline - 3,427
21. Dorchester - 2,715
22. Garrett - 2,311
23. Kent - 1,918
24. Somerset - 1,718

It should be obvious that if Montgomery County has significantly more independent voters than other counties, and these voters cannot vote in most races in primary elections, these voters will not turnout (as demonstrated by their 2.59% turnout rate). This clearly drags down MoCo's statewide ranking for voter turnout.


VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION DECLINES SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE MARYLAND GOP - But more importantly, these numbers raise the question about who these independent voters are. Are they disaffected Republicans (aka would-be moderate Republicans who have no home in today's Republican Party)? It is stunning that indies outnumber the GOP in Montgomery County, but then again the era of moderate Republican officials like Connie Morella is now long-gone, mirroring a national trend of partisan realignment.

That the Maryland GOP cannot energize its voters in the vote-rich Democratic strongholds is not a theory, it is fact. Look at the percentage of Maryland Republicans who voted in the June Primaries:

MARYLAND REPUBLICAN TURNOUT BY COUNTY

County	Party	Turnout
Talbot	REP	44.06%
Dorchester	REP	37.76%
Queen Anne's	REP	37.46%
Somerset	REP	34.00%
Garrett	REP	33.53%
Carroll	REP	32.80%
Frederick	REP	31.84%
Kent	REP	31.09%
Caroline	REP	29.43%
Cecil	REP	27.93%
Harford	REP	26.15%
Anne Arundel	REP	25.92%
Allegany	REP	25.57%
Wicomico	REP	24.50%
Worcester	REP	24.46%
Calvert	REP	23.51%
Washington	REP	23.46%
Saint Mary's	REP	21.93%
Baltimore County	REP	20.55%
Charles	REP	20.43%
Howard	REP	19.22%
Montgomery	REP	11.74%
Prince George's	REP	11.23%
Baltimore City	REP	11.00%

UPDATED: THE MARYLAND GOP IS A REGIONAL PARTY - In places like Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City, barely 1 in 10 registered Republicans decided to participate in contested Republican Primary Elections. Furthermore, in all three of those jurisdictions, independents outnumber Republicans:

• Montgomery - 147,904 independents vs. 122,349 Republican
• Baltimore City - 46,313 independents vs. 30,325 Republicans
• Prince George's - 60,039 independents vs. 43,636 Republicans

Interestingly, in democratic-trending Howard County, independents are beginning to approach the same strength as the GOP. This does not bode well for the strength of the Republican electorate in the long-term:

• Howard - 46,623 independents vs. 56,696 Republicans

Given what a large share of votes these counties represent, it seems clear that the Maryland GOP continues on the path of becoming a regional party. But these anemic GOP turnout levels are making us all look bad, since they bring down the overall turnout percentages for our counties.

The obvious solution for the Maryland GOP is to hold open primaries and allow independents to vote -- especially since indies now outnumber MoCo Republicans. But I'm not holding my breath for that.


PRIMARY TURNOUT IS DECLINING NATIONALLY - In the meantime, I would add just one more piece of data for folks to consider. And that is that the hand-wringing over low voter turnout is nothing unique to Maryland. It is happening nationally.  USA Today recently posted a graph of declining party primary turnout across the nation (courtesy of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate):

So take a deep breath, folks. There is much more going on with voter turnout both nationally, regionally, and locally than has really been discussed in many of the news articles I've read recently. I'll be back with a JuiceBlender before too long.  Thanks for sticking around!

POLL: Maryland Democrats & Republicans Divided on Pot Legalization, Gun Control, Immigration & Marriage Equality

Goucher College released a new poll last week highlighting Marylanders' opinions on a range of issues including marijuana, marriage equality, gun control and immigration reform. Below you can see the results of the poll, including breakdowns by political party affiliation and race. I've flagged a few of the more interesting results below.

STATEWIDE SUMMARY: The major items in Goucher's statewide poll reveal that:

• 72% of Marylanders think marriage equality either changed things for the better or had no effect, while only 23% think it changed things for the worse. 

• On gun control, 54.5% of voters think the new gun regulations were about right or not strict enough, while only 26.6% think they were too strict. 

• On immigration, 53.4% of Marylanders support allowing undocumented immigrants to keep their jobs and apply for citizenship, while only 25.9% think we should kick undocumented immigrants out of their jobs and the country. 

• On the War on Drugs, 50.9% of Marylanders support or strongly support marijuana legalization, whereas 40.3% of residents oppose or strongly oppose legalization. 

• But on the issue of whether jail time is an appropriate penalty for marijuana possession, only 5.8% of Marylanders support criminalizing marijuana. In contrast, 82.6% of residents support changing the penalty for possession to a ticket or rehab.

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS DIVIDED ON MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, GUN CONTROL, IMMIGRATION AND MARRIAGE EQUALITY - When you consider that Maryland is effectively a one-party state (where most high-profile races are won in the Democratic Primary), it becomes useful to take the statewide polling numbers above with a grain of salt. Indeed, when you restrict the survey results to only Democrats or Republicans, the results shift quite a bit and reveal partisan divides on these hot-button issues.

A strong majority of Democrats, Independents and third party residents support marijuana legalization, whereas Republicans were the only group where respondents were more likely to oppose than to support legalization. But even still, nearly 2 in 5 Republicans support legalization (aka almost half). On immigration, a super-majority of Democrats support allowing undocumented immigrants to stay and seek citizenship, but Republicans were divided with 39% seeking to kick them out, and 31% allowing them to stay and seek citizenship. You can see my table summarizing the survey results by party below:

Democrats

• 64% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 57% Support Marijuana Legalization
• 44% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 35% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 35% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 20% Support Kicking Undocumented Immigrants Out Of Their Jobs & the Country
• 18% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 13% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

Republicans

• 55% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 39% Want Undocumented Immigrants Out of their Jobs & the Country
• 39% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 38% Support Marijuana Legalization
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 34% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 31% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 19% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• 18% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

RESULTS BY RACE FOR MARIJUANA AND IMMIGRATION - There are a few more interesting items in Goucher's polling crosstabs (which you can read below), but I would note a couple tidbits. A strong majority of black Marylanders support marijuana legalization, though a majority of white Marylanders also support legalization. The non-white/non-black category is the only race group where more respondents opposed than supported legalization, albeit by a slim margin of 3%. Black Marylanders were also the strongest supporters of immigrant rights, with 62% of black respondents supporting allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in their jobs and seek citizenship. You can read the polling memos below:

Goucher College November 2013 Poll Crosstabs on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

Goucher College November 2013 Poll on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

JUICE: Dutch to Decide on Governor by FEB, Heather Mizeur's LG Pick & Progressive Endorsement, 2014 Issues & GOP Odds

Below Maryland Juice provides a brief roundup of news bits that may be of interest to politicos:

JUICE #1: REP. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER CLARIFIES THOUGHTS ON CAMPAIGN FOR GOVERNOR // DECISION BY FEBRUARY - Yesterday Maryland Juice discussed a recent interview with Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger that appeared in The Capitol Gazette. In expansive remarks about state and national politics, Ruppersberger revealed that he was leaning against running in the June 2014 Democratic Primary for Governor. But a follow-up article by The Daily Record's Bryan Sears contains additional thoughts and a new timeline from Congressman Ruppersberger (excerpt below):

DAILY RECORD: Dutch Ruppersberger says he would shake up the Democratic primary if he entered the race for Maryland governor.... Ruppersberger has been considering the race for governor off and on for more than a year but he said his interest waned as he traveled Syria and Iraq in January as part of his official congressional duties....

Ruppersberger said he's spending time with supporters studying state issues and putting together a plan to raise money should he decide to get in. "If I get in I plan to run to win," Ruppersberger said. "I don't think I'll need as much money as some others. Polls show I'm really well known and popular in the Baltimore area.... My only timeline is the filing deadline," he said. Ruppersberger has until 9 p.m. Feb. 25 to decide.

Notably, Rep. Ruppersberger previously stated he would make a decision on a gubernatorial run by Thanksgiving, and he has now pushed that timetable out to the February 2014 filing deadline.


JUICE #2: HEATHER MIZEUR TO ANNOUNCE RUNNNING-MATE THIS WEDNESDAY? - Maryland Juice just received an email blast from Heather Mizeur's campaign seeking phonebanking volunteers to help promote an event this Wednesday, where it appears she'll be announcing her pick for Lieutenant Governor:

Juice,

Heather's excited about her upcoming announcement on Wednesday, November 13th. We need your help to spread the word.

On Monday and Tuesday, we will be hosting a phone bank at our office. Join us as well tell our supporters all about their first chance to see Heather alongside her pick for Lieutenant Governor.

Location – Mizeur HQ, 1430 Fenwick Lane, Silver Spring
Monday 11/11 – 2:00-5:00pm and  5:00-8:00pm
Tuesday 11/12 – 5:00-8:00pm

When can you come in for a shift? Click here to sign up. Please bring your cell phone.

We're looking forward to having a good crowd at the event. Your calls will make it happen.

Best,
Andrew Katz
Field Director
Friends of Heather Mizeur

Mizeur's campaign followed up on this volunteer solicitation with the following event announcement:

Juice,

Our campaign made big news recently. I announced my 10 point plan to make sure Maryland families have an economy that works for us. My plan will strengthen the middle class, make sure our economy is built to grow throughout the 21st century, and provide the jobs Marylanders need.

I am keeping the momentum moving forward this week. On Wednesday, November 13th, I will be in Silver Spring for a special announcement. You will not want to miss this event. Join me on Wednesday and be the first to hear the news.

Event Details:

Date: Wednesday, November 13th
Time: 5:30pm

Location:
American Legion Post 41,
905 Sligo Ave, Silver Spring, MD

Click here to RSVP

I look forward to having you seeing you at the announcement. It will be a great event.

Best,

Heather

JUICE #3: HEATHER MIZEUR NETS PROGRESSIVE ENDORSEMENT FOR GOVERNOR - Maryland Juice received the press release below from the Montgomery County-based advocacy group Progressive Neighbors announcing an endorsement of Delegate Heather Mizeur in the race for Governor.  Maryland Juice previously flagged some differences between Gansler and Mizeur's responses to Progressive Neighbors on hot-button issues ranging from marijuana decriminalization and public financing of campaigns, to fracking and the minimum wage. In their endorsement statement, the group noted that one of the factors in their process was evaluating issue surveys from the candidates, but only Doug Gansler and Heather Mizeur provided responses (excerpt below):

Press Release

Announcement of Endorsement of Heather Mizeur for Governor

Progressive Neighbors is proud to endorse Delegate Heather Mizeur in her campaign to become the next Governor of Maryland because she is the most progressive candidate in the race. An accomplished legislator, able to reach across the aisle and bring ideological opponents together in pursuit of common interests, Delegate Mizeur will also be Maryland's first female governor as well as possibly becoming America's first openly gay governor.

Our endorsement process was intensive, including a questionnaire dealing with a range of issues, from economic to social – the candidates' responses are posted on our website, www.progressiveneighborsmd.org. Both Delegate Mizeur and Attorney General Doug Gansler provided extensive, thoughtful responses to the questions generated by the Progressive Neighbors endorsement subcommittee. Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown was repeatedly invited to submit his responses, but chose not to do so. We considered the candidates’ responses in our deliberations, as well as their records....

JUICE #4: GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES COME OUT ON THE ISSUES // READ MY SUMMARY OF BROWN, GANSLER AND MIZEUR'S PLATFORMS THUS FAR - Speaking of issues, this week Heather Mizeur released a slew of proposals on issues related to jobs, taxes and the economy. As a result, Maryland Juice thought this might be a good time to highlight the various platform items the gubernatorial candidates have released thus far. We previously compared survey responses between Gansler and Mizeur on progressive issues including fracking and marijuana reform, as well as responses by Brown, Gansler and Mizeur on schools issues. But below you can see our summary and round-up of the official campaign platform positions from Anthony Brown, Doug Gansler and Heather Mizeur thus far. We also provide some brief commentary on the gubernatorial candidates' issue papers below:

ANTHONY BROWN

• Ending Domestic Violence & Sexual Assault - Includes items to: 1) establish domestic violence screening, referral and assistance at all Maryland community hospitals; 2) require cell phone carriers to allow domestic violence victims to pull out of their partners' cell phone contracts without penalty; 3) provide a $5 million domestic violence innovation fund for local programs; and 4) establish a statewide domestic violence stats program to promote cross-agency collaboration.
• Competitive Business Climate - Includes items to: 1) Reform our tax code to generate job investments; streamline regulatory & licensing requirements to reduce business costs; 2) promote cost-effective energy generation and improve delivery of energy delivery through the grid; 3) expand affordable housing, health care and transportation; 4) provide a court system that allows individuals to get justice but keep awards fair; 5) facilitate small and medium size businesses access to capital by working with banks; 6) invest in high school and college job skills training; 7) make fiscally responsible improvements in funding for transit, education, public safety, health care, parks and the arts; and 8) and maintain & redevelop infrastructure through creative and conventional financing.
• Universal Pre-K - Includes items to expand to universal all-day Pre-K by the year 2022.

DOUG GANSLER

• Renewable Energy Proposals to Fight Bay Pollution - Includes items to: 1) Create innovation grants for companies to who can turn animal waste and other contributors to Bay pollution into energy generators; 2) spur investment in renewable energy by providing credit multipliers for certain energy sources; 3) encourage energy production from chicken litter through "aggregate net metering" policies; 4) provide state support for chicken litter energy projects; 5) incentivize utilities to generate power from farm waste; 6) encourage green energy through a voluntary surcharge to be distributed to local farmers; and 7) green energy marketing for renewable "Farm Power."
• "Build it in Maryland" Job Creation Plan - Includes items to: 1) Give preference to Maryland businesses when competing for state contracts and procurement; 2) Subsidize workforce training and provide manufacturing tax credits and grants for "Industrial Business Zones," 3) Extend tax credits to Maryland businesses receiving R&D grants to actually manufacture their products in Maryland; 4) Provide tax abatement for businesses renovating vacant buildings using renewable energy systems; 5) Create a grant program to help 12 small and medium sized businesses to manufacture and export Maryland-made goods within 12 months, 6) Develop a summer workshop for high school and college students geared toward the high-tech manufacturing industry; and 7) Launch an online marketing campaign to support "Made in Maryland" products
• Responsible Re-entry Reforms - Includes items to: 1) Establish a cabinet official to focus on re-entry of ex-offenders into society; 2) Create re-entry centers within prisons; 3) Establish re-entry courts to reduce recidivism; 4) Conduct an annual cost-benefit analysis of imprisonment, recidivism, and crime rates; 5) Restrict access to criminal records for those with demonstrated clean records; 6) Create challenge grants to incentivize recruitment of social workers for high-stress environments; 7) Provide transitional housing for ex-offenders; 8) Sponsor constructive family engagement opportunities for children of offenders; 9) Use technology (eg: tablets) to build individualized educational programs for offenders; and 10) Convene summits of nonprofits to coordinate statewide support networks.
• Educational Initiatives Targeting Achievement Gap - Includes items to: 1) Expand access to all-day pre-K to more low-income households; 2) Promote parental engagement in limited-English households through grants to incentivize schools to develop outreach and training programs; 3) Create an open data portal on school system information to facilitate accountability and planning; 4) Build a "Governor's Teacher Corps" to provide mentorship and professional development support to new teachers; 5) Form partnerships with nonprofits and philanthropists to provide after-school, summer and Saturday school programs; and 6) Create a volunteer coprs to assist at-risk children.
• Good Government Overhaul Proposals - Includes items to: 1) Create a Public Information Inspector General to collect public information across agencies and conduct performance audits; 2) Consolidate existing databases into a user-friendly portal; 3) Adopt an Open Meeting Records Rule to archive meetings with outside parties regarding state regulatory changes; 4) Create a database of state contracts and campaign contributions made by the winning corporations, officers and employees; 5) Host open source innovation labs to develop transparency tech tools; and 6) Provide "sunshine" grants to local governments to replicate the state data portals.

HEATHER MIZEUR

• Give Marylanders Much Needed Tax Relief - Includes items to lower taxes for 90% of Marylanders by reinstating a millionaire's tax.
• Institute a Living Wage - Includes items to phase in a living wage to $10.10/hour by 2016, up to $16.70 by 2020.
• Strengthen Job Training - Includes items to: 1) Increase funding for the Maryland EARN program, which brings together employers, government agencies and educational institutions to train workers; 2) require that grant partners in the EARN program include certain numbers of low-income participants, and 3) eliminate waiting lists for residents seeking GED assistance through increased funding.
• Provide Tax Relief to Small Businesses - Includes items to: 1) Institute "combined reporting" to prevent big corporations from dodging tax payments in Maryland, and 2) Use "combined reporting" revenues for assistance to small businesses in the form of local property tax subsidies.
• Make Earned Sick Leave Available to All Maryland Workers - Includes items to require Maryland employers to provide 30 minutes of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked (for both part-time and full-time employees), up to 7 days per year.
• Rebuild Our Schools - Includes items to: 1) Create "school opportunity bonds" (aka 63-20 bonds) through public-private partnerships to reduce loan costs and induce companies to provide capital for school infrastructure; and 2) Allow local governments to add a penny to their sales tax to finance school construction.
• Grow Maryland's Innovation Economy - Includes items to: 1) Find ways of commercializing academic research in Maryland; 2) Invest in ways to make Maryland a leader in nanotechnology development; and 3) Make cybersecurity a core part of Maryland's economy by building workforce skills and marketing Maryland as a leader in the industry.
• Invest in Maryland's Public Infrastructure - Includes items to: 1) Invest in public transportation, starting with the Purple Line and Red Line, and also including bike and pedestrian access, the CCT, bus rapid transit, and potentially a high-speed rail system from Washington and Baltimore to New York; 2) Rebuild roads and bridges, specifically in the I-270 corridor, the Harry Nice and Thomas Johnson Bridges, and around BRAC facilities; and 3) Expand the Port of Baltimore.
• Streamline Our Regulatory System - Includes items to: 1) Streamline or scrap business regulations that serve no public good; 2) Create a "Business Advocate" cabinet post to hear and investigate complaints from the public and business community; 3) Develop a single statewide set of procurement procedures, instead of delegating the job to various agencies; and 4) Reduce turnaround time on responses to bids by one-third.
• Expand Sustainable Clean Energy Jobs - Includes items to: 1) Make Maryland a manufacturing hub for wind farms; 2) Removing regulatory barriers to clean energy production; 3) Doubling the share of renewable energy sources that Maryland electricity suppliers are required to use to 40% by 2030; 4) Encourage more clean biomass energy production for commercial and residential buildings; 5) Provide low-interest loans to builders constructing low-energy homes; and 6) Help counties promote ecotourism.
• Make Pre-K Available to Every Child in Maryland - Includes items to phase in universal access to pre-K, starting with all 4-year olds, and then expanding to 3-year-olds.
• Improve Access to Child Care for Maryland Families - Includes items to: 1) Expand access to and increase the benefits of Maryland's Child Care Subsidy program; and 2) Expand number of child care providers covered by state voucher program.
• Expand Maryland After School and Summer Programs - Includes items to expand access to after school and summer programs for K-8 children through a phased increase in funding.
• Renew Our Commitment to Public Education Funding - Includes items to convene a "Thornton 2.0" to modify school funding to consider teacher pay and pensions, inflation, class size, teacher recruitment and retention, educational support services, infrastructure, and technological improvements.
• Free Our Educators from Teaching to the Test - Includes items to: 1) Delay use of newly implemented "PARCC" academic achievement tests for teacher and principal evaluations for four years; 2) Study alternatives to PARCC that consider problem solving, creativity and innovation; and 3) Give counties more flexibility in teacher evaluations.

Maryland Juice Analysis of Gubernatorial Campaign Platforms: Most Maryland political pundits believe that the 2014 gubernatorial contest will be effectively decided in the June Democratic Primary, and recent election results demonstrate a sizeable number of progressive voters in the Free State. But perhaps predictably, the major platform items from the two candidates leading the money race thus far (Brown & Gansler) are fairly cautious in their approach and so far lack "red meat" for the party base. Brown has proactively released items on education, domestic violence, sexual assault, and improving the state's business climate. Meanwhile, Gansler has proactively discussed transparency reforms, environmental protections, issues relating to ex-offenders re-entering society, jobs and education. Most of the aforementioned issues will not prove to be terribly controversial among Democratic Primary voters. On the other hand, Mizeur has proactively released a series of proposals relating to jobs, economic justice, and numerous education issues -- but the specifics in a number of her proposals have a decidedly progressive bent.

All three candidates are promoting expansion of universal pre-K in Maryland, and all are planning to push jobs and economic development initiatives. But the devil is obviously in the details, and already there are some interesting differences between the candidates. Gansler talks about the environment, for example, but his platform does not address the issue of fracking -- which may be the most heated environmental issue in Maryland right now. At the same time, Mizeur has come out strongly against fracking, and the issue has not been discussed in Brown's platform yet. Similarly, Gansler raises issues within our criminal justice system, but so far only Mizeur has stepped out front in calling for marijuana decriminalization. Gansler and Brown have not yet weighed in on the increasingly high-profile issue.

Economic issues may be where we see the largest differences between the candidates. Though all three candidates support increasing the minimum wage to about $10/hour, Mizeur is calling for an ongoing, phased-in increase until we reach a living wage. Notably, Gansler called for a corporate tax cut immediately before endorsing a minimum wage increase. Lastly, in Mizeur's latest round of proposals, she is calling for a restoration of the state's millionaire's tax, which lawmakers allowed to expire recently. Mizeur's plan is to increase taxes on those making $500,000 and above, and to lower taxes for most other taxpayers. Notably, newly elected New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, who is theoretically an emerging harbinger of progressive political issues (eg: War on Drugs, smart growth, and progressive taxation) just announced a similar plan to increase taxes on those making over half-a-million. So on the issues right now, I would say the advantage goes to Mizeur. This should not be a surprise though, as success for her campaign is contingent upon exciting the party base, while Brown is likely trying to play it safe in the front-runner seat. Will Brown and Gansler try and compete for the hearts and minds of primary voters? For the health of the party activists, I sure hope so.

One last flag I'll raise here, is that Brown has a quiet but potentially curious item in his platform on creating a "competitive business climate" in Maryland. He states a goal to "Provide a civil justice system that allows deserving individuals to get justice and hold wrongdoers accountable while ensuring that awards are fair and equitable" (Item #5 in this document). My fear here is that "when ensuring awards are fair," Brown is talking in code about so-called "tort reform," which has been the business community's advocacy effort to reduce the ability of consumers to get justice when dealing with corporations making dangerous products or services. During the George W. Bush era, progressives had to deal with ridiculous hysteria maligning consumer protection attorneys, claiming that they were driving up the costs of health care and other goods and services through frivolous litigation. But the stronger reason for insurance premium increases at the time, was that companies had gambled customers' insurance premiums on risky investments and needed to invent a bogeyman for their desired policy changes. Hopefully Brown is not embarking on a campaign to implement so-called "tort reform" in Maryland.


JUICE #5: REPUBLICAN PUNDITS WEIGH ODDS OF WINNING STATEWIDE IN 2014 // PROGNOSIS = BLEAK - Maryland Juice caught an interesting segment on WYPR interviewing GOP pundit and consultant Richard Cross on the Maryland Republicans' chances for statewide office in 2014. Cross suggests that the situation is bleak and that the state party should focus on local races in 2014 (transcript excerpt below):

RICHARD CROSS (VIA WYPR): I don't think this is a situation in Maryland where any Republican can win statewide, and I would point to kind of two pieces of evidence. First of all, the results with the ballot initiatives in Maryland last time around. They were put forth by the Republican Party, they were advocated by the Republican Party, and they all went down hard. Secondly, the most interesting stat I've seen in the cycle is Governor O'Malley's approval rating, which according to Gonzalez and the most recent poll is 48% approve and 40% disapprove. Given some of the controversial measures that went through the legislature earlier this year, I don't see the kind of second term drag on Governor O'Malley that Governor Schaeffer experienced or Governor Glendening experienced. In order for someone like Mr. Craig to have a chance, Governor O'Malley would have to have a meltdown that brought his numbers into the high 30's or mid-30's.

MORE ON MARYLAND'S RACE FOR GOVERNOR SOON!