Early Vote Turnout Analysis, Hillary Clinton in MD, Brown vs. Hogan Polls, Raskin vs. Zirkin for JPR Committee Chair & More!

Below Maryland Juice provides a roundup of news and analyses of key races of interest to politicos:

JUICE #1: DUELING POLLS IN THE RACE BETWEEN ANTHONY BROWN VS. LARRY HOGAN - Maryland's top race this cycle is undoubtedly the gubernatorial match-up between Lt. Governor Anthony Brown and former Ehrlich-administration official Larry Hogan. Here is a quick round-up of recent polls in the race. Note: the Gonzalez poll below was commissioned by supporters of Larry Hogan:

NEW YORK TIMES-CBS-YOUGOV (10/23/14) - BROWN +13

• Anthony Brown (D) - 51%
• Larry Hogan (R) - 38%

BALTIMORE SUN (10/11/14) - BROWN +7%

• Anthony Brown (D) - 49%
• Larry Hogan (R) - 42%

WASHINGTON POST (10/6/14) - BROWN +9%

• Anthony Brown (D) - 47%
• Larry Hogan (R) - 38%
• Shawn Quinn (L) - 4%

GONZALEZ RESEARCH (10/1/14) - BROWN +4%

• Anthony Brown (D) - 47%
• Larry Hogan (R) - 43%
• Shawn Quinn (L) - 1%

JUICE #2: MARYLAND JUICE EARLY VOTE TURNOUT ANALYSIS // WHO'S BEEN VOTING? - Below Maryland Juice takes a deep dive into early vote turnout data by party, gender, and county -- and we also give breakdowns in all Montgomery County state races, a few swing districts and in key Maryland counties. Early voting is currently underway in Maryland, as voters can cast early ballots until Thursday, October 30, 2014. Polls are open from 10:00 am to 8:00 pm at early vote centers across the state. Who has been voting early in the Free State? Below you can see some of our findings from turnout data for the first three days of early voting (Thursday, Friday & Saturday).

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY COUNTY & PARTY: Below we take a look at early vote turnout by raw party advantage and by county turnout. Not surprisingly, Democrats are turning out at an almost 2-1 rate over Republicans, reflecting their statewide registration advantage. As a result, the top raw turnout counties are not surprising (Baltimore, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, etc). But in terms of the % of eligible voters casting ballots, Montgomery County is near the bottom of the state, along with Baltimore City. Though you cannot assume all Democrats will vote for Brown and all Republicans will vote for Hogan, the data reflect mixed news for Democrats. The party can try and coast on its registration advantage, but the low turnout %'s in heavy Democratic counties should be seen as a call to arms. Montgomery County is seriously lagging in % turnout (again, probably owing to the fact that the large numbers of new MoCo voters who registered over the last few years are not turning out at the polls):

2014 Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 62,765
2. Republicans = 29,533
3. Independents = 8,275

2010 Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 60,547
2. Republicans = 26,146
3. Independents = 7,508

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Top 8 Counties by Raw Turnout (First 3 Days):

1. Baltimore County = 16,893 (3.25%)
2. Prince George's = 14,004 (2.58%)
3. Anne Arundel = 12,930 (3.7%)
4. Montgomery = 11,271 (1.78%)
5. Baltimore City = 8,413 (2.25%)
6. Howard = 7,064 (3.62%)
7. Harford = 6,301 (3.83%)
8. Frederick = 3,712 (2.46%)

2014 Early Vote Turnout - All Counties Ranked by % Eligible Turnout (First 3 Days):

1. Talbot = 1,651 (6.43%)
2. Queen Anne's = 1,885 (5.68%)
3. Kent = 719 (5.65%)
4. Worcester = 1,415 (3.96%)
5. Harford = 6,301 (3.83%)
6. Somerset = 486 (3.74%)
7. Anne Arundel = 12,930 (3.7%)
8. Howard = 7,064 (3.62%)
9. Wicomico = 1,859 (3.28%)
10. Baltimore County = 16,893 (3.25%)
11. Caroline = 577 (3.14%)
12. Dorchester = 582 (2.84%)
13. Calvert = 1,672 (2.79%)
14. Prince George's = 14,004 (2.58%)
15. Frederick = 3,712 (2.46%)
16. Carroll = 2,751 (2.44%)
17. Cecil = 1,491 (2.41%)
18. Garrett = 460 (2.38%)
19. Saint Mary's = 1,466 (2.27%)
20. Baltimore City = 8,413 (2.25%)
21. Charles = 2,069 (2.06%)
22. Montgomery = 11,271 (1.78%)
23. Washington = 1,279 (1.42%)
24. Allegany = 587 (1.38%)

EARLY VOTE BY GENDER & PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout by gender and party. Statewide, women are turning out in larger numbers than men, a trend which clearly benefits Democrats. Women make up almost 60% of the Democrats early voting electorate, while men are a majority of Republican and Independent early vote turnout:

2014 Early Vote Turnout by Gender (First 3 Days):

1. Women = 54,759
2. Men = 46,778

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Democrats by Gender = 62,765:

1. Democrats Female = 36,787 (58.6%)
2. Democrats Male = 25,967 (41.1%)

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Republicans by Gender = 29,533 

1. Republicans Female = 14,078 (47.7%)
2. Republicans Male = 15,447 (52.3%)

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Independents by Gender = 8,275 

1. Independents Female = 3,522 (42.6%)
2. Independents Male = 4,747 (57.4%)

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY AGE AND PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout, sorted by age and party. The largest block of early voters is age 65+, with almost equal numbers of early voters from the large 45-64 demographic. In every age category, Democrats are turning out in larger numbers than Republicans. But again, you cannot assume that voters are going to vote party-line:

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 18-24 = 2,363

1. Democrats 18-24 = 1,249
2. Republicans 18-24 = 736
3. Independents 18-24 = 349
4. Libertarians 18-24 = 15
5. Greens 18-24 = 4

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 25-44 = 10,775 

1. Democrats 25-44 = 6,170
2. Republicans 25-44 = 2,992
3. Independents 25-44 = 1,459
4. Libertarians 25-44 = 64
5. Greens 25-44 = 23

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 45-64 = 43,605

1. Democrats 45-64 = 26,465
2. Republicans 45-64 = 13,057
3. Independents 45-64 = 3,668
4. Libertarians 45-64 = 75
5. Greens 25-44 = 55

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 65+ = 44,794 

1. Democrats 65+ = 28,881
2. Republicans 65+ = 12,748
3. Independents 65+ = 2,799
4. Libertarians 65+ = 36
5. Greens 65+ = 14

EARLY VOTE BY PARTY IN THE TOP 8 TURNOUT COUNTIES: Below we take a look at early vote turnout in the top 8 highest turnout counties. In 7 of 8 of these counties, Democrats are turning out in much higher numbers than Republicans. In Harford County, Republicans have a slight edge of roughly 300 votes over the Democrats. Though you can't quite assume that all Democrats will vote for their County Executive candidates, the county-level turnout may be reassuring news for Democrats in some of the competitive County Exec races. Some of the turnout numbers are tight enough to warrant extra energy from Dems:

Anne Arundel Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 6,169
2. Republicans = 5,282
3. Independents = 1,433

Baltimore City Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 7,636
2. Republicans = 417
3. Independents = 326

Baltimore County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 11,259
2. Republicans = 4,334
3. Independents = 1,090

Frederick County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 1,698
2. Republicans = 1,538
3. Independents = 460

Harford County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Republicans = 2,967
2. Democrats = 2,657
3. Independents = 602

Howard County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 4,167
2. Republicans = 2,035
3. Independents = 775

Montgomery County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 7,909
2. Republicans = 1,962
3. Independents = 1,295

Prince George's County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

1. Democrats = 12,443
2. Republicans = 878
3. Independents = 507

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY DELEGATE RACES: In all 8 of Montgomery County's House of Delegate Districts, Democrats are turning out in far greater numbers than Republicans. My home District 20 has the highest Democratic turnout in MoCo, and here Independents are tied with Republicans for turnout. Meanwhile District 14 has the highest overall turnout (counting all parties):

Maryland House District 14 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,953 Total Votes

1. Democrats = 1,258
2. Republicans = 472
3. Independents = 317
4. Libertarians = 3
5. Greens = 0

Maryland House District 15 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,161 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 709
2. Republicans = 275
3. Independents = 163
4. Libertarians = 5
5. Greens = 1

Maryland House District 16 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,092 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 796
2. Republicans = 171
3. Independents = 119
4. Libertarians = 2
5. Greens = 0

Maryland House District 17 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,242 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 835
2. Republicans = 234
3. Independents = 161
4. Libertarians = 2
5. Greens = 2

Maryland House District 18 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,335 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 999
2. Republicans = 182
3. Independents = 136
4. Greens = 6
5. Libertarians = 0

Maryland House District 19 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,676 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 1,220
2. Republicans = 257
3. Independents = 183
4. Greens = 4
5. Libertarians = 3

Maryland House District 20 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,741 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 1,425
2. Republicans = 148
3. Independents = 148
4. Greens = 7
5. Libertarians = 3

Maryland House District 39 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,070 Total Votes 

1. Democrats = 666
2. Republicans = 222
3. Independents = 170
4. Libertarians = 3
5. Greens = 1

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN A FEW SWING RACES: Below we provide early vote turnout figures and party breakdowns in a few key races on the November ballot. Democratic turnout from the first three days of early voting looks okay across the board, but there are a couple districts where the party needs to turn up the heat!

Senate District 3 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Ron Young vs. Corey Stottlemyer) 

1. Democrats = 1,091
2. Republicans = 719
3. Independents = 246

Senate District 42 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Jim Brochin vs. Tim Robinson)

1. Democrats = 1,062
2. Republicans = 683
3. Independents = 153

Delegate District 9B Early Vote Turnout by Party (Tom Coale vs. Bob Flanagan) 

1. Democrats = 742
2. Republicans = 506
3. Independents = 158

Delegate District 12 (Eric Ebersole/Terri Hill/Clarence Lam vs. Gordon Bull/Joe Hooe/Rick Martel)

1. Democrats = 1,773
2. Republicans = 566
3. Independents = 220

Delegate District 29B (John Bohanan vs. Deb Rey)

1. Democrats = 190
2. Republicans = 158
3. Independents = 40

Delegate District 30A Early Vote Turnout by Party (Mike Busch/Chuck Ferrar vs. Herb McMillan/Genevieve Lindner)

1. Democrats = 1,384
2. Republicans = 839
3. Independents = 257

Delegate District 38B Early Vote Turnout by Party (Norm Conway vs. Carl Anderton Jr) 

1. Democrats = 430
2. Republicans = 388
3. Independents = 85

JUICE #3: NATIONAL PARTIES NOW SPENDING IN MARYLAND // PLUS: OBAMA, CHRIS CHRISTIE & THE CLINTONS CAMPAIGN IN MD - As we head into the homestretch for Maryland's gubernatorial race, the national Democrats & Republicans are engaging in a proxy battle in the Free State. Here are a few signs of activity from national politicians:

HILLARY CLINTON TO RALLY FOR ANTHONY BROWN THIS THURSDAY: So far Lt. Governor Anthony Brown's campaign has brought President Obama and former President Bill Clinton onto the campaign trail in Maryland. This Thursday, they are continuing the proxy battle with a rally with Hillary Clinton (press release excerpt below). You can RSVP at: http://www.anthonybrown.com/Oct30

This event is free – supporters will be admitted on a first come, first served basis. Space is limited and supporters must RSVP at www.anthonybrown.com/Oct30, or pick up tickets at a Democratic office listed here: www.anthonybrown.com/offices.

Who: Hillary Rodham Clinton, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, County Executive Ken Ulman, and the Maryland Democratic Team

What: Early Vote event – Final push before polls close at 8 p.m. (Nearest Early Vote location is the College Park Community Center at 5051 Pierce Avenue, College Park, MD)

When: Thursday, October 30th, Doors open to the public at 2:45 pm

Where: University of Maryland College Park, Ritchie Coliseum, 4533 Rossborough Lane, College 

Hillary Clinton's visit comes on the heels of an Anthony Brown rally with President Obama (see TV news coverage) and a fundraiser with President Bill Clinton (see TV ad w/ Bill Clinton). Meanwhile, Larry Hogan has enlisted New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (see TV coverage) to campaign for him in the Free State.

NATIONAL PARTY TV AD WARS: Meanwhile, the Democratic Governor's Association (aka DGA) has now spent at least $1.15 million in deep Blue Maryland to shore up the Brown campaign. The Washington Post reported on the ad buys (excerpt below):

WASHINGTON POST: The DGA previously spent about $750,000 on three weeks of ads in the Baltimore market that attack Hogan’s record on social issues, including his past opposition to abortion rights.... The latest DGA outlay in the heavily Democratic state will keep ads on the air on Baltimore stations through mid-October. The purchase appears to be roughly $400,000, based on publicly available records and people familiar with the buy....

To counter the DGA, the Republican Governor's Association (aka the RGA) has bought airtime in Maryland. The Baltimore Sun reported on the news (excerpt below):

BALTIMORE SUN: The RGA's intervention in the race in deep-blue Maryland reflects a growing hope in GOP circles that Hogan can score an upset despite the state's 2-1 Democratic registration advantage. The RGA's chairman, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, campaigned and raised funds for Hogan this week on his second visit to Maryland on Hogan's behalf. lRelated Distortions fly in race for governor POLITICS Distortions fly in race for governor SEE ALL RELATED 8 According to filings with the Federal Communication Commission, the RGA will spend $166,515 to advertise on WJZ-TV. The ad the group released Thursday is a 30-second spot rattling off taxes, fares and other charges that have gone up under Brown and Gov. Martin O'Malley....

JUICE #4: SENATORS RASKIN & ZIRKIN BATTLING FOR CHAIR OF JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE - One of the non-election stories politicos are currently following is the battle between State Senators Jamie Raskin & Bobby Zirkin for Chair of the Judicial Proceedings Committee. After all, not all of the hot races this year are electoral battles -- some of them relate to the assignment of leadership posts. This November, State Senator Brian Frosh is all but certain to be elected Maryland's next Attorney General, but Frosh also chairs the Senate's Judicial Proceedings Committee (aka JPR). With his looming departure from that post, Senate President Mike Miller will soon have to choose a replacement. Center Maryland columnist Josh Kurtz recently highlighted the basics of the JPR battle (excerpt below):

JOSH KURTZ VIA CENTER MARYLAND: At first glance – and maybe even at second and third glance – it’s a no-brainer: A Harvard-educated constitutional scholar vs. a guy who advertises his ability to win dog bite cases prominently on his law firm website. Put another way, it’s a choice between a lawyer who wrote a best-selling book about the Supreme Court and a lawmaker who introduced a bill that would have prevented the wife of an Annapolis lobbyist from serving on the Baltimore County school board because the lawmaker didn’t like a natural gas pipeline project in his neighborhood that the lobbyist’s firm was promoting....

By all accounts, the battle is between Montgomery County Sen. Jamie Raskin (D), an American University law professor and constitutional scholar, and Baltimore County Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D), the trial lawyer and pipeline foe. But [Senate President Mike] Miller’s decision isn’t as easy as one might expect given the two contenders’ credentials, because this is not an academic exercise – and the chairmanship of JPR is anything but an academic position. In fact, it’s become a major dilemma for Miller, the longest-serving Senate president on Planet Earth who once held the JPR gavel himself....

WILL MOCO & LIBERALS HAVE A ROLE IN THE STATE SENATE? - But there is much more to the JPR battle than just the resumes of Senators Raskin & Zirkin. The decision has much to do with the trajectory of the chamber, and Montgomery County's role in the future of the State Senate. With the exit of Senator Brian Frosh and the retirement of former Majority Leader Rob Garagiola, Montgomery County may soon be without any Senator in a senior leadership position in the state's upper chamber.

Moreover, with the ever-increasing liberal bent to Maryland's Democratic electorate, the JPR battle foreshadows whether progressives in the State Senate will be given a correspondingly larger voice in the body. On this point, there are some similarities and some differences in voting record between Raskin & Zirkin. Most notably, Zirkin voted against the Dream Act while Raskin supported the bill. The two Senators also disagree on whether landlords should be able to discriminate against tenants based on the form of payment for rent (eg: housing vouchers for veterans and low income residents). Raskin opposes discrimination against form of payment, while Zirkin supports it.

That being said, both Senators voted for marriage equality and both support marijuana legalization. Both Senators also voted against corporate welfare for Lockheed Martin, and Zirkin ultimately joined Raskin in supporting death penalty repeal and transgender non-discrimination. In any case, we will likely not know how this story plays out until after the General Election is concluded.


JUICE #5: LOW PROFILE BALLOT QUESTIONS FACING VOTERS IN NOVEMBER // TRANSPORTATION LOCK BOX, COUNTY EXEC SPECIAL ELECTIONS & MORE - In addition to the state and county races on the ballot this year, there are some fairly interesting (albeit low-profile) ballot questions facing voters. We discuss the two statewide ballot questions and a Montgomery County-specific ballot question below:

QUESTION 1: SHOULD MARYLAND LOCK-BOX ITS TRANSPORTATION FUNDS? - This ballot question asks voters whether state lawmakers should be prohibited from spending transportation dollars on non-transportation budget items. The measure was placed on the ballot by the General Assembly as part of the gas tax negotiations during the last legislative session. The lockbox on the transportation trust fund dollars could be overturned through at 60% vote of the legislature during a fiscal emergency. A vote "for" Question 1, is a vote for the lockbox and is recommended by a diverse range of groups including the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee, Progressive Neighbors, The Baltimore Sun, The Gazette, various Chambers of Commerce, the carpenters union and supporters of the Red Line, Purple Line and CCT.

QUESTION 2: SHOULD MARYLAND ALLOW COUNTIES TO FILL COUNTY EXEC VACANCIES THROUGH SPECIAL ELECTIONS? - This ballot question asks voters whether Maryland should authorize counties to fill vacancies in the office of County Executive through special elections instead of appointments. In Montgomery County, for example, a County Exec vacancy would currently be filled through a vote of five members of the County Council. A vote "for" Question 2 is a vote to allow counties to use special elections and is recommended by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee and Progressive Neighbors.

MOCO QUESTION A: SHOULD MOCO REQUIRE COUNCILMEMBERS TO LIVE IN THEIR DISTRICT AT THE TIME OF A PRIMARY, GENERAL & VACANCY? - This ballot question asks voters in Montgomery County whether candidates for District-based County Council seats must reside in their district at the time of a Primary Election and General Election or at the time a vacancy occurs. A vote "for" Question A is a vote to require residency and is recommended by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee and Progressive Neighbors.

JUICE #6: MONTGOMERY COUNTY APPROVES PUBLIC FINANCING FOR COUNTY RACES STARTING IN THE 2018 CYCLE - One major game-changer to local politics is that Montgomery County Councilmembers recently voted unanimously to adopt a "clean elections" public financing system for county races. The County Council sent the following press release discussing how the new system works (excerpt below):

MONTGOMERY COUNTY COUNCIL: The Montgomery County Council today unanimously enacted Bill 16-14, which will allow candidates for County Council and County Executive to qualify for partial public financing for their campaigns. This is the first measure of its type for County elective offices in the Washington Region and in the State of Maryland.... The bill would establish a Public Election Fund. To qualify for public financing, a candidate would have to:

• File a Notice of Intent prior to collecting qualifying contributions
• Establish a publicly funded campaign account
• Only accept contributions from an individual of between $5 and $150
• Refuse to accept a contribution from any group or organization, including a political action committee, a corporation, a labor organization or a State or local central action committee of a political party
• Collect a qualifying number of contributions from County residents: 500 for County Executive candidates, 250 for at-large Council candidates and 125 for district Council candidates
• Meet qualifying dollar thresholds of $40,000 for County Executive, $20,000 for at-large Councilmember and $10,000 for district CouncilmemberLimits are indexed to inflation
• Only contributions from County residents are eligible for matching funds

The plan provides strong incentives for candidates to seek out many small individual contributors. Matching public dollars for County Executive candidates would be $6 for each dollar of the first $50 of a qualifying contribution received from a County resident, $4 for each dollar for the second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar received up to the maximum contribution. Matching dollars for County Council candidates would be $4 for each dollar of the first $50 received from a County resident, $3 for each dollar for the second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar received up to the maximum contribution.

The maximum limit on public funds per candidate for either the primary election or the general election will be $750,000 for a County Executive candidate, $250,000 for a Council at-large candidate and $125,000 for a district Council candidate. Matching dollars would not be distributed for self/spouse contributions or to candidates running unopposed.

Advocates are hopeful that the "clean elections" push will soon spread to other states and hopefully be adopted for state elections in coming years.

That's it until next time!

TURNOUT ANALYSIS: What's Really Going On? // Maryland Juice Dissects Voter Turnout in the June 2014 Primary Elections

UPDATE:  When I first went live with the post below, I didn't have complete numbers of independent voters in each Maryland county. We've now updated the post with these figures (Hat-tip to Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick for pointing us in the right direction), along with an explanation of how counties without nonpartisan primaries have inflated turnout percentages. I've also added some information on counties where independent voters are outpacing Republicans. Scroll down for these updates below.

THE FUTURE OF MARYLAND JUICE: Alrighty folks, after months of absence, Maryland Juice is back in action! Before I kick-off a lengthy article about voter turnout in Maryland, I thought I'd take a second to discuss some changes that this blog will be pursuing in the coming months.

In case you haven't heard, I won my Democratic Primary election for the House of Delegates, and that means that by the time the legislative session starts in January 2015, I'll have to step back from my writing duties. But not to worry -- over the course of the next few months, I hope to introduce a new set of writers who will keep the Juice torch and information pipeline burning into the future. In 2015, I  may still write an article here or there, but likely not with the vigor and frequency you've become accustomed to (for various obvious reasons). In any case, keep your eyes open as we roll out new Juicers in 2014! Now onto my first article in over three months....

MARYLAND JUICE 2014 PRIMARY ELECTION TURNOUT ANALYSIS - Numerous political pundits have fretted about Maryland's declining voter turnout, especially in Democratic strongholds like Montgomery County. The Washington Post's Bill Turque commented (excerpt below):

WASHINGTON POST: There’s been much opining among Montgomery’s elected officials about the anemic primary turnout last month, when just 16 percent of registered voters came to the polls. They cited, among other factors, the inconvenience of the new June 24 election date, the lack of urgent issues, and a less-than compelling primary race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination at the top of the ballot....

Turque's article was triggered by a feisty piece from Center Maryland columnist and Montgomery County resident Josh Kurtz (excerpt below):

CENTER MARYLAND: At presidential election time, voter turnout in Montgomery County is pretty decent: Almost three-quarters of enrolled voters showed up at the polls on Election Day 2012 to choose between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney....  But when it comes to acting locally, when it comes to selecting their leaders at the state and county levels, Montgomery County residents fail miserably.

In the recent statewide primary, just 16 percent of registered voters in Montgomery County bothered to vote. Sixteen percent!.... That’s lower voter turnout than in Garrett County (27 percent), where cousins marry, or in Somerset County (24 percent), where the raging issue is chicken waste, or in Baltimore city (22 percent), where they’re selling drugs on every street corner, or in Prince George’s County (18 percent), where every public official has a palm extended.....

But to accurately build a solution to the problem of "low turnout," it helps to understand what's really going on.  Indeed, rushed analyses have led some to hastily conclude that recent voting reforms like early voting were "unsuccessful" and that we are in some sort of existential crisis in Maryland with respect to civic engagement. However, many variables impacting voter turnout (eg: demographic changes, resident turnover, and the national mood) are out of state and local policymakers' control. Below are a few points to consider about turnout trends in Maryland and Montgomery County.

RAW DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELECTION DAY TURNOUT BY COUNTY: First, not all voters are the same. Turnout in Maryland varied wildly depending on your party registration, and all is not what it seems. In terms of raw Democratic Party turnout, simply more Democrats from Montgomery County voted at the polls on election day than Democrats from any other county:

COUNTY	PARTY	PRIMARY TURNOUT
Montgomery	DEM	68,179
Prince George's	DEM	64,982
Baltimore County	DEM	59,980
Baltimore City	DEM	51,730
Anne Arundel	DEM	24,655
Howard	DEM	19,193
Charles	DEM	12,314
Harford	DEM	11,795
Frederick	DEM	11,201
Carroll	DEM	6,306
Calvert	DEM	4,451
Washington	DEM	4,433
Saint Mary's	DEM	4,023
Cecil	DEM	3,508
Wicomico	DEM	3,349
Allegany	DEM	2,748
Queen Anne's	DEM	2,303
Worcester	DEM	2,173
Dorchester	DEM	1,952
Talbot	DEM	1,888
Kent	DEM	1,299
Caroline	DEM	1,018
Somerset	DEM	919
Garrett	DEM	790

If you include early voters, Montgomery County was second place in Maryland for raw Democratic turnout - Prince George's was first, Baltimore County was third, and Baltimore City was fourth.

% OF ELIGIBLE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT BY PARTY - One caveat to MoCo's large Democratic turnout should be noted. Even though more MoCo Dems turned out than Dems around the state, Montgomery County's turnout ranking does indeed drop when looking at the percentage of eligible Democrats who participated (as opposed to the absolute number of Democrats who voted).

But even still, in terms of the percentage of Democrats turning out for the primary election, Montgomery County was in a respectable 8th place out of 24 counties (including early voters). Of the large jurisdictions, only Baltimore County Democrats turned out at a rate higher than Montgomery. Prince George's was in 14th place, and Baltimore City was in 17th place:

COUNTY	PARTY	TURNOUT_TOTAL
Kent	DEM	30.22%
Queen Anne's	DEM	28.68%
Howard	DEM	27.77%
Talbot	DEM	26.94%
Baltimore County	DEM	26.51%
Charles	DEM	26.18%
Frederick	DEM	25.05%
Montgomery	DEM	23.90%
Harford	DEM	23.77%
Carroll	DEM	23.55%
Calvert	DEM	23.08%
Dorchester	DEM	22.90%
Anne Arundel	DEM	22.85%
Baltimore City	DEM	22.75%
Garrett	DEM	20.79%
Allegany	DEM	19.90%
Prince George's	DEM	19.46%
Cecil	DEM	19.02%
Saint Mary's	DEM	18.96%
Worcester	DEM	18.49%
Caroline	DEM	18.44%
Somerset	DEM	17.70%
Wicomico	DEM	16.82%
Washington	DEM	15.80%

MOCO'S POPULATION SURGE DISTORTS ITS TURNOUT PERCENTAGES: In other words, MoCo's sheer size of population means that we have among the most Democrats who vote in Maryland, but we also have a large number of MoCo Democrats who do not vote, thereby bringing down Montgomery County's turnout percentages. Why might this be?

MoCo Democrat Paul Bessel recently launched a new blog where he delved into some of these turnout dynamics. One of the facts he pointed out is that Montgomery County has had a huge surge in Democratic voter registrations over the last 14 years. Based on his graph below, MoCo had about 230,000 Democrats in 2000 compared with about 355,000 in 2014:

NUMBER OF MOCO DEMOCRATS VOTING BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN OVER 2 DECADES - MoCo Democrats have basically voted in equal numbers over the last couple decades, even while our turnout rate has dropped. How can that be? Some historical Democratic turnout numbers provided by Jonathan Shurberg provide some insight.

Here is one telling comparison. In 1990, roughly 86,000 MoCo Democrats voted out of 195,000. In 2014, roughly 84,000 MoCo Democrats voted. So the raw turnout is almost the same, but today there are 354,000 Democrats on the rolls in Montgomery County.

Montgomery County Democratic Turnout (Gubernatorial Primary Years)

• 1990: 86,167 turnout out of 195,523 registered Dems (44.07%)
• 1994: 89,452 turnout out of 217,007 registered Dems (41.22%)
• 1998: 75,485 turnout out of 227,863 registered Dems (33.13%)
• 2002: 110,518 turnout out of 246,779 registered Dems (44.78%)
• 2006: 108,337 turnout out of 271,008 registered Dems (39.98%)
• 2010: 83,827 turnout out of 321,759 registered Dems (26.05%)
• 2014: 84,622 turnout out of 354,078 registered Dems (23.90%)

It is worth noting that the two election cycles with unusually high turnout for MoCo Democrats both occurred during the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld era (2002-2006). Extrapolate what you will from that data point.

A PROBLEM FOR THE NEW MONTGOMERY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE - What all of this tells me is that as MoCo's population has surged over the last couple decades, we have likely failed to engage all of the new Democratic registrants that have chosen to reside here.  MoCo's Democratic turnout stayed the same over 24 years even though we added over 150,000 new Democrats to the voter rolls (almost twice as many as vote in Primaries).

Indeed, the vast majority of candidates seeking office in Montgomery County (and everywhere else) spend most of their resources contacting voters with a demonstrated history of voting in Democratic Primaries (aka the decisive elections). As a result, save for the occasional nonprofit voter mobilization drive, there is really nobody trying to pump primary turnout by engaging new registrants and less likely voters in primaries. This seems like a challenge for MoCo's new Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) to tackle. After all, we are living in a new world in Maryland politics, where literally zero Republicans hold elected office in Montgomery County. It seems sensible that the MCDCC should shift its activities to meet the evolving needs of our county's politics.


SO WHY DOES MOCO HAVE THE OVERALL LOWEST VOTER TURNOUT RATE IN MARYLAND? - Okay, so now that we've got the Democratic turnout analysis out of the way, it still remains true that MoCo had terrible turnout when looking at voters from all parties. When you look at turnout figures from voters of all parties and unaffiliated voters, Montgomery County had the lowest turnout percentage in all of Maryland but we still had the second highest number of actual voters in the state this year. See these tables of overall voter turnout from all parties below:

MARYLAND COUNTIES - % OF ELIGIBLE VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Talbot - 35.22%
2. Kent - 30.60%
3. Dorchester - 29.00% 
4. Queen Anne's - 28.33%
5. Garrett - 26.62%
6. Baltimore County - 24.68% 
7. Carroll - 24.53%
8. Somerset - 24.43%
9. Anne Arundel - 24.25%
10. Caroline - 24.19%
11. Cecil - 23.60%
12. Frederick - 23.34%
13. Baltimore City - 21.65%
14. Charles - 21.47%
15. Harford - 21.26%
16. Wicomico - 20.24%
17. Worcester - 20.21%
18. Allegany - 19.95%
19. Calvert - 19.24%
20. Prince George's - 18.00%
21. Saint Mary's - 16.77%
22. Washington - 16.54%
23. Montgomery - 16.34%

MARYLAND COUNTIES - RAW VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)

1. Baltimore County - 105,171
2. Montgomery - 103,000
3. Prince George's - 91,782
4. Baltimore City - 70,508
5. Anne Arundel - 65,396
6. Howard - 38,946
7. Frederick - 34,872
8. Harford - 33,773
9. Carroll - 28,049
10. Charles - 21,441
11. Washington - 14,765
12. Calvert - 11,571
13. Cecil - 11,258
14. Saint Mary's - 10,773
15. Wicomico - 9,495
16. Queen Anne's - 9,297
17. Allegany - 8,460
18. Talbot - 7,714
19. Worcester - 6,424
20. Dorchester - 5,138
21. Garrett - 5,102
22. Caroline - 3,625
23. Kent - 3,257
24. Somerset - 2,803

UPDATED: UNAFFILIATED VOTERS DRIVE DOWN TOTAL TURNOUT PERCENTAGES - Maryland Juice would point readers to some fairly obvious facts that may explain why MoCo had overall turnout of 16%, even while MoCo Democrats turned out at nearly 24%. First, Montgomery County now has 147,000 voters who are not registered with any party. Since Maryland Democrats and Republicans have closed primaries (meaning only registered party members can vote), independent voters have very little reason to turnout for primary elections. Indeed, in MoCo only 2.59% of unaffiliated voters participated in the June 2014 primary election.

Moreover, as Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick pointed out to me, multiple counties have no races where independents are eligible to vote in primaries. Montgomery County, for example, has nonpartisan school board races, while other counties do not. As a result, counties without nonpartisan races will appear to have higher voter turnout percentages than the rest (where anemic turnout from independents drags down the countywide participation rates). The counties without nonpartisan primaries are: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Somerset, and Wicomico.

What's more, MoCo has a much larger number of independent voters than many other Democratic strongholds, according to the Board of Elections stats as of May 2014. Indeed, there are now more MoCo independents (147,904) than Republicans (122,349). Below you can see the numbers of unaffiliated voters in each county:

MARYLAND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS BY COUNTY

1. Montgomery - 147,904
2. Baltimore County - 83,015
3. Anne Arundel - 74,718
4. Prince George's - 60,039
5. Baltimore City - 46,313
6. Howard - 43,623
7. Frederick - 33,625
8. Harford - 30,505
9. Carroll - 21,560
10. Washington - 17,854
11. Charles - 16,399
12. Cecil - 13,249
13. Saint Mary's - 12,767
14. Calvert - 12,012
15. Wicomico - 10,342
16. Worcester - 6,545
17. Allegany - 6,428
18. Queen Anne's - 5,906
19. Talbot - 4,451
20. Caroline - 3,427
21. Dorchester - 2,715
22. Garrett - 2,311
23. Kent - 1,918
24. Somerset - 1,718

It should be obvious that if Montgomery County has significantly more independent voters than other counties, and these voters cannot vote in most races in primary elections, these voters will not turnout (as demonstrated by their 2.59% turnout rate). This clearly drags down MoCo's statewide ranking for voter turnout.


VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION DECLINES SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE MARYLAND GOP - But more importantly, these numbers raise the question about who these independent voters are. Are they disaffected Republicans (aka would-be moderate Republicans who have no home in today's Republican Party)? It is stunning that indies outnumber the GOP in Montgomery County, but then again the era of moderate Republican officials like Connie Morella is now long-gone, mirroring a national trend of partisan realignment.

That the Maryland GOP cannot energize its voters in the vote-rich Democratic strongholds is not a theory, it is fact. Look at the percentage of Maryland Republicans who voted in the June Primaries:

MARYLAND REPUBLICAN TURNOUT BY COUNTY

County	Party	Turnout
Talbot	REP	44.06%
Dorchester	REP	37.76%
Queen Anne's	REP	37.46%
Somerset	REP	34.00%
Garrett	REP	33.53%
Carroll	REP	32.80%
Frederick	REP	31.84%
Kent	REP	31.09%
Caroline	REP	29.43%
Cecil	REP	27.93%
Harford	REP	26.15%
Anne Arundel	REP	25.92%
Allegany	REP	25.57%
Wicomico	REP	24.50%
Worcester	REP	24.46%
Calvert	REP	23.51%
Washington	REP	23.46%
Saint Mary's	REP	21.93%
Baltimore County	REP	20.55%
Charles	REP	20.43%
Howard	REP	19.22%
Montgomery	REP	11.74%
Prince George's	REP	11.23%
Baltimore City	REP	11.00%

UPDATED: THE MARYLAND GOP IS A REGIONAL PARTY - In places like Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City, barely 1 in 10 registered Republicans decided to participate in contested Republican Primary Elections. Furthermore, in all three of those jurisdictions, independents outnumber Republicans:

• Montgomery - 147,904 independents vs. 122,349 Republican
• Baltimore City - 46,313 independents vs. 30,325 Republicans
• Prince George's - 60,039 independents vs. 43,636 Republicans

Interestingly, in democratic-trending Howard County, independents are beginning to approach the same strength as the GOP. This does not bode well for the strength of the Republican electorate in the long-term:

• Howard - 46,623 independents vs. 56,696 Republicans

Given what a large share of votes these counties represent, it seems clear that the Maryland GOP continues on the path of becoming a regional party. But these anemic GOP turnout levels are making us all look bad, since they bring down the overall turnout percentages for our counties.

The obvious solution for the Maryland GOP is to hold open primaries and allow independents to vote -- especially since indies now outnumber MoCo Republicans. But I'm not holding my breath for that.


PRIMARY TURNOUT IS DECLINING NATIONALLY - In the meantime, I would add just one more piece of data for folks to consider. And that is that the hand-wringing over low voter turnout is nothing unique to Maryland. It is happening nationally.  USA Today recently posted a graph of declining party primary turnout across the nation (courtesy of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate):

So take a deep breath, folks. There is much more going on with voter turnout both nationally, regionally, and locally than has really been discussed in many of the news articles I've read recently. I'll be back with a JuiceBlender before too long.  Thanks for sticking around!