Saturday, March 31, 2012

CD6: State Sen. David Brinkley Releases Internal Poll Showing Dead Heat with Rep. Roscoe Bartlett for Republican Primary

UPDATE: At least one rival GOP campaign in CD6 is alleging that Brinkley's poll was a head-to-head poll between Roscoe Bartlett and David Brinkley. They claim that one of their supporters was polled and states that the poll didn't ask voters about the other candidates in the race.

Maryland Juice just received a press release touting internal poll numbers from State Senator David Brinkley's campaign for the 6th Congressional District. Sen. Brinkley is running for the Republican nomination against incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, and his survey results show him in a dead-heat with only a few days left in the race.

Normally, I would take the release of an internal poll like this with a huge dose of skepticism. First, I am unfamiliar with the pollsters who conducted this poll, and I don't have any information about their sample and methodology. However, the one thing that makes me wonder if there is some possible movement of voters toward David Brinkley is that Roscoe Bartlett is now attacking the State Senator by name. As we noted earlier today, we believe this may represent a sign of weakness from the Bartlett campaign (ie: perhaps his own internals show voters moving toward Senator Brinkley).


Poll: Bartlett vs. Brinkley … DEAD HEAT

March 31, 2012 (Frederick, MD) — An EPolitical poll commissioned by the Brinkley for Congress campaign shows a virtual dead heat among the top two contenders for the Republican nomination for the newly formed 6th Congressional District in Maryland.

The telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters in the 6th Congressional District, conducted March 29-30, 2012, shows Bartlett with 34% and Brinkley with 31%, (margin of error is plus or minus 4%).

Bartlett’s support among Republicans has dropped 25% (11 polling points) from his own poll in January. “Two-thirds of Republican Primary voters do not support Roscoe Bartlett’s re-election bid,” said Brinkley Campaign Manager Lawrence Scott. “The remaining ‘undecided’ voters will determine the GOP nominee,” Scott added. “This is most likely why the Washington Post announced yesterday that Roscoe Bartlett was among 10 Republican Congressman nationwide in danger of losing their Primary,” he concluded.

“We’re within the margin of error just as our first TV ads hit the air,” said Brinkley. We’ve closed a thirty (30) point deficit since the start of this campaign and I’m feeling very good about our position right now. Our message of fiscal discipline and job creation is resonating with the voters,” Brinkley added.

“We believe the ‘undecided’ voters will largely break for Brinkley and Bartlett’s other challengers, and not for Bartlett,” said campaign spokesman Don Murphy. “If you’re undecided about a 20-year incumbent, you’re not likely to vote for him on election day,” he concluded.

The remaining six candidates in the race split 15 percent of the vote and 19 percent of the voters in the poll remain undecided. The poll was done by EPolitical US on March 29-30, 2012. The poll surveyed 701 likely Republican voters across the 6th Congressional District and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. The poll numbers were adjusted by County to accurately reflect Republican voter registration.

In addition to the Congressional poll, EPolitical polled Maryland Likely Republican Primary voters on the Maryland Presidential Race finding 43% of likely voters supporting Romney, 26% supporting Santorum, 10% supporting Gingrich, and 8% supporting Paul, which is consistent with a March 28 Rasmussen Maryland poll.


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