Thursday, November 7, 2013

A Closer Look at New Polling Numbers in Maryland's Race for Governor // Race, Gender & Political Party Divides in Name ID

Yesterday Maryland Juice published a polling memo from Goucher College that included early name identification data in the heated race for Governor. Today we decided to dig a little deeper into Goucher's poll to provide some early insight into any differences in name ID based on party identification, race and gender. Before we begin our discussion, it is worth noting that none of the candidates has invested any noteworthy amounts of spending on media at this early stage, so we expect these numbers to shift (perhaps dramatically) once the campaigning begins in earnest.

NAME ID AND POLITICAL PARTY: In our polling write-up yesterday, we noted the following name id for gubernatorial candidates among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated/third party voters:
  • 62 percent recognize “Anthony Brown”
  • 58 percent recognize “Doug Gansler”
  • 49 percent recognize “Dutch Ruppersberger”
  • 31 percent recognize “David Craig”
  • 23 percent recognize “Charles Lollar”
  • 22 percent recognize “Ron George”
  • 13 percent recognize “Heather Mizeur”
But it is worth remembering that Maryland has closed political party primaries, so that only Democrats and Republicans can vote in their respective primary elections in June 2014. If you restrict the survey results to only Democrats and only Republicans, the results in the name ID poll shift in interesting ways. Note the name ID survey results when restricted to Democrats and Republicans below:
Name ID Among Democrats
  1. Anthony Brown 67%
  2. Doug Gansler 56%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger 45%
  4. Heather Mizeur 15%
Name ID Among Republicans
  1. David Craig 39%
  2. Charles Lollar 26%
  3. Ron George 25%
Note: Gansler & Ruppersberger both have higher name ID among Republicans. When you restrict the survey to only Democrats, Brown and Mizeur both see increases in their name ID, while Gansler and Ruppersberger see declines. In the Republican field, all three candidates have higher name ID among Republicans than Democrats.

NAME ID AND RACE: The name ID results shift once again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the race of the respondents (details below):
Name ID Among Black residents
  1. Anthony Brown - 68%
  2. Doug Gansler - 50%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 47%
  4. Heather Mizeur - 11%
Name ID Among White residents
  1. Doug Gansler - 64%
  2. Anthony Brown - 59%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 52%
  4. Heather Mizeur - 15%
Name ID Among Non-White/Black residents
  1. Anthony Brown - 64%
  2. Doug Gansler - 45%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 38%
  4. Heather Mizeur - 9%
Note:  When factoring in race, Brown sees a fairly substantial advantage in name ID among black and non-white/non-black residents, while Gansler sees a healthy lead among white residents. But note that these results reflect the name ID among residents of all political parties, and we can surmise that Gansler's advantage among white residents is enhanced by recognition within the pool of white Republican residents.

NAME ID AND GENDER: The name ID results shift in interesting ways yet again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the gender of the respondents (details below):
Name ID Among Males
  1. Anthony Brown 58%
  2. Doug Gansler 58%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger 51%
  4. Heather Mizeur 13%
Name ID Among Females
  1. Anthony Brown 66%
  2. Doug Gansler 58%
  3. Dutch Ruppersberger 48%
  4. Heather Mizeur 14%
Note: When looking at gender, Anthony Brown and Doug Gansler both have equal name ID among male residents, abut Brown has an 8-point advantage among women over Gansler. Ruppersberger is slightly more known among men than women, and the same holds true (to a slight degree) for Mizeur. Maryland Juice expects the Democratic Primary voting population to skew disproportionately toward women.

The Goucher poll includes the following notice and disclaimer about methodology and funding:
GOUCHER POLL: To ensure all Maryland citizens are represented, the Goucher Poll is conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) of a stratified random sample using landline and cellular telephone numbers. The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, which is housed in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Goucher College. Directed by Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in the state by providing neutral and nonbiased information on citizen perceptions and opinions.
You can see the polling memos on the race, gender and party crosstabs below:

No comments:

Post a Comment