POLL: MD Supports Obama, Hogan, Pot & Immigrants (1 Is Not Like The Others) // PLUS: Marylanders on Presidential Race

By Matt Verghese

Below Maryland Juice provides highlights from a new Goucher Poll on the Presidential race, Governor Larry Hogan and a few policy debates. You can see the summary data below. A few quick items of interest:

1. Slim majorities of Marylanders approve of Larry Hogan & Barack Obama's jobs, but many residents don't yet have an opinion on Hogan.
2. Governor Hogan's issue ratings are lower, and he receives his lowest marks on education -- the most important issues facing the state and the only issue where Democrats disapprove 
3. Marylanders support marijuana legalization, and a super-majority of residents support a path to citizenship for undocumented residents.
4. Marylanders disapprove of the job Congress is doing by a whopping 83%.
5. It's early in the Presidential race, but Hillary Clinton tops the polls for Maryland Democrats & Martin O'Malley is scraping the bottom in his own state

Who Would Maryland Democrats Vote for in Presidential Primary?

• Hillary Clinton: 43%
• Joe Biden: 23%
• Bernie Sanders: 17%
• Martin O'Malley: 2%

Who Do Maryland Democrats Think Will Win Nomination?

• Hillary Clinton: 54%
• Joe Biden: 14%
• Bernie Sanders: 8%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Job as Governor:

• Approve: 58%
• Disapprove: 18%
• Don't Know: 23%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Handling of Issues (ranked by importance):

	Approve	Disapprove
Public education	40	33	+7
Taxes	51	29	+22
Economic growth	52	21	+31
Job creation	42	28	+14
Crime	43	32	+11
Transportation	50	29	+21
Environment	43	27	+16

Marylanders' Approval of President Obama's Job as President:

• Approve: 53%
• Disapprove: 38%
• Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders' Approval of Congress' Job:

• Disapprove: 83%
• Approve: 9%
• Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders on Marijuana Legalization:

• Support Legalization: 52%
• Oppose Legalization: 42%

Marylanders on Who Should Decide Marijuana Policy:

• States Should Decide: 64%
• Federal Government Should Decide: 31%

Marylanders on Redistricting:

• Prefer Independent Commission: 73%
• Prefer Redistricting by Electeds: 21%

Marylanders on Starting School After Labor Day:

• Support Starting After Labor Day: 72%
• Oppose Starting After Labor Day: 19%

Marylanders on Undocumented Immigrants:

• Allow Them to Stay In Jobs With Path to Citizenship: 62%
• Make Them Leave Jobs & the USA: 20%
• Allow Them to Stay Temporarly In Jobs Without Path to Citizenship: 13%

POLL: Maryland Democrats & Republicans Divided on Pot Legalization, Gun Control, Immigration & Marriage Equality

Goucher College released a new poll last week highlighting Marylanders' opinions on a range of issues including marijuana, marriage equality, gun control and immigration reform. Below you can see the results of the poll, including breakdowns by political party affiliation and race. I've flagged a few of the more interesting results below.

STATEWIDE SUMMARY: The major items in Goucher's statewide poll reveal that:

• 72% of Marylanders think marriage equality either changed things for the better or had no effect, while only 23% think it changed things for the worse. 

• On gun control, 54.5% of voters think the new gun regulations were about right or not strict enough, while only 26.6% think they were too strict. 

• On immigration, 53.4% of Marylanders support allowing undocumented immigrants to keep their jobs and apply for citizenship, while only 25.9% think we should kick undocumented immigrants out of their jobs and the country. 

• On the War on Drugs, 50.9% of Marylanders support or strongly support marijuana legalization, whereas 40.3% of residents oppose or strongly oppose legalization. 

• But on the issue of whether jail time is an appropriate penalty for marijuana possession, only 5.8% of Marylanders support criminalizing marijuana. In contrast, 82.6% of residents support changing the penalty for possession to a ticket or rehab.

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS DIVIDED ON MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, GUN CONTROL, IMMIGRATION AND MARRIAGE EQUALITY - When you consider that Maryland is effectively a one-party state (where most high-profile races are won in the Democratic Primary), it becomes useful to take the statewide polling numbers above with a grain of salt. Indeed, when you restrict the survey results to only Democrats or Republicans, the results shift quite a bit and reveal partisan divides on these hot-button issues.

A strong majority of Democrats, Independents and third party residents support marijuana legalization, whereas Republicans were the only group where respondents were more likely to oppose than to support legalization. But even still, nearly 2 in 5 Republicans support legalization (aka almost half). On immigration, a super-majority of Democrats support allowing undocumented immigrants to stay and seek citizenship, but Republicans were divided with 39% seeking to kick them out, and 31% allowing them to stay and seek citizenship. You can see my table summarizing the survey results by party below:

Democrats

• 64% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 57% Support Marijuana Legalization
• 44% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 35% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 35% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 20% Support Kicking Undocumented Immigrants Out Of Their Jobs & the Country
• 18% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 13% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

Republicans

• 55% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 39% Want Undocumented Immigrants Out of their Jobs & the Country
• 39% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 38% Support Marijuana Legalization
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 34% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 31% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 19% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• 18% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

RESULTS BY RACE FOR MARIJUANA AND IMMIGRATION - There are a few more interesting items in Goucher's polling crosstabs (which you can read below), but I would note a couple tidbits. A strong majority of black Marylanders support marijuana legalization, though a majority of white Marylanders also support legalization. The non-white/non-black category is the only race group where more respondents opposed than supported legalization, albeit by a slim margin of 3%. Black Marylanders were also the strongest supporters of immigrant rights, with 62% of black respondents supporting allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in their jobs and seek citizenship. You can read the polling memos below:

Goucher College November 2013 Poll Crosstabs on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

Goucher College November 2013 Poll on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

A Closer Look at New Polling Numbers in Maryland's Race for Governor // Race, Gender & Political Party Divides in Name ID

Yesterday Maryland Juice published a polling memo from Goucher College that included early name identification data in the heated race for Governor. Today we decided to dig a little deeper into Goucher's poll to provide some early insight into any differences in name ID based on party identification, race and gender. Before we begin our discussion, it is worth noting that none of the candidates has invested any noteworthy amounts of spending on media at this early stage, so we expect these numbers to shift (perhaps dramatically) once the campaigning begins in earnest.

NAME ID AND POLITICAL PARTY: In our polling write-up yesterday, we noted the following name id for gubernatorial candidates among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated/third party voters:

• 62 percent recognize “Anthony Brown”
• 58 percent recognize “Doug Gansler”
• 49 percent recognize “Dutch Ruppersberger”
• 31 percent recognize “David Craig”
• 23 percent recognize “Charles Lollar”
• 22 percent recognize “Ron George”
• 13 percent recognize “Heather Mizeur”

But it is worth remembering that Maryland has closed political party primaries, so that only Democrats and Republicans can vote in their respective primary elections in June 2014. If you restrict the survey results to only Democrats and only Republicans, the results in the name ID poll shift in interesting ways. Note the name ID survey results when restricted to Democrats and Republicans below:

Name ID Among Democrats

1. Anthony Brown 67%
2. Doug Gansler 56%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 45%
4. Heather Mizeur 15%

Name ID Among Republicans

1. David Craig 39%
2. Charles Lollar 26%
3. Ron George 25%

Note: Gansler & Ruppersberger both have higher name ID among Republicans. When you restrict the survey to only Democrats, Brown and Mizeur both see increases in their name ID, while Gansler and Ruppersberger see declines. In the Republican field, all three candidates have higher name ID among Republicans than Democrats.

NAME ID AND RACE: The name ID results shift once again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the race of the respondents (details below):

Name ID Among Black residents

1. Anthony Brown - 68%
2. Doug Gansler - 50%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 47%
4. Heather Mizeur - 11%

Name ID Among White residents

1. Doug Gansler - 64%
2. Anthony Brown - 59%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 52%
4. Heather Mizeur - 15%

Name ID Among Non-White/Black residents

1. Anthony Brown - 64%
2. Doug Gansler - 45%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger - 38%
4. Heather Mizeur - 9%

Note:  When factoring in race, Brown sees a fairly substantial advantage in name ID among black and non-white/non-black residents, while Gansler sees a healthy lead among white residents. But note that these results reflect the name ID among residents of all political parties, and we can surmise that Gansler's advantage among white residents is enhanced by recognition within the pool of white Republican residents.


NAME ID AND GENDER: The name ID results shift in interesting ways yet again when you sort the results in the Democratic Primary by the gender of the respondents (details below):

Name ID Among Males

1. Anthony Brown 58%
2. Doug Gansler 58%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 51%
4. Heather Mizeur 13%

Name ID Among Females

1. Anthony Brown 66%
2. Doug Gansler 58%
3. Dutch Ruppersberger 48%
4. Heather Mizeur 14%

Note: When looking at gender, Anthony Brown and Doug Gansler both have equal name ID among male residents, abut Brown has an 8-point advantage among women over Gansler. Ruppersberger is slightly more known among men than women, and the same holds true (to a slight degree) for Mizeur. Maryland Juice expects the Democratic Primary voting population to skew disproportionately toward women.

The Goucher poll includes the following notice and disclaimer about methodology and funding:

GOUCHER POLL: To ensure all Maryland citizens are represented, the Goucher Poll is conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) of a stratified random sample using landline and cellular telephone numbers. The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, which is housed in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Goucher College. Directed by Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in the state by providing neutral and nonbiased information on citizen perceptions and opinions.

You can see the polling memos on the race, gender and party crosstabs below:

Goucher November 2013 Maryland Gubernatorial Name ID Poll: Race Crosstabs

Goucher November 2013 Maryland Gubernatorial Name ID Poll: Gender & Party Crosstabs

POLL RESULTS: Maryland Gubernatorial Candidates' Name ID, Minimum Wage Hike & Pension Funding for State Employees

Goucher College released the results of a new poll today on various items of interest to Maryland politicos. Their survey results (below) highlight the current name id of gubernatorial candidates and show where voters are on issues ranging from the minimum wage to pension funding:

Name Recognition of Maryland Gubernatorial Candidates

• 62 percent recognize “Anthony Brown”
• 58 percent recognize “Doug Gansler”
• 49 percent recognize “Dutch Ruppersberger”
• 31 percent recognize “David Craig”
• 23 percent recognize “Charles Lollar”
• 22 percent recognize “Ron George”
• 13 percent recognize “Heather Mizeur” 

MINUMUM WAGE #1: As you may know, the minimum wage in Maryland is $7.25 per hour. Would you [support or oppose] raising the state minimum wage to $10 per hour?

• Support: 70 percent 
• Oppose: 27 percent

MINUMUM WAGE #2: Would you [support or oppose] raising the state minimum wage to $10 per hour?

• Support: 74 percent 
• Oppose: 24 percent

PENSION #1: I’d like to ask you two questions about pensions. In Maryland, retired state employees receive an average annual pension of about $12,000 per year. Do you think the average pension for a retired Maryland state employee is [too little, too much, or about the right amount]?

• Too Little: 59 percent
• About the Right Amount: 26 percent
• Too Much: 4 percent Don’t Know: 9 percent

PENSION #2: Next, I’d like to ask you two questions about pensions. Do you think the average pension for a retired Maryland state employee is [too little, too much, or about the right amount]?

• Too Little: 36 percent
• About the Right Amount: 21 percent
• Too Much: 11 percent
• Don’t Know: 31 percent

PENSION #3: Sixty-seven percent of respondents agreed that all Maryland workers, not just those employed by the state or local governments, should have a pension, while 28 percent disagreed.

Goucher November 2013 Poll: Maryland Governor & More

POLL RESULTS: New Goucher Survey Shows Majority Support Marriage Equality, Dream Act & Gambling // READ FINDINGS

BACKGROUND: A Maryland Juice source has forwarded us the inaugural poll results from Goucher College's inaugural "Goucher Poll." The Baltimore-based school will now be polling Marylanders on a variety of topics and periodically releasing results. Their first surveys, not surprisingly, capture opinion on several items on Maryland's Presidential Election ballot.

OBAMA-ROMNEY APPROVAL RATINGS: Goucher surveyed Marylanders on Obama-Romney approval ratings, and not surprisingly, the President remains popular in the Free State:

• 60% of Marylanders view Obama favorably
• 64% of Marylanders view Romney unfavorably

O'MALLEY APPROVAL RATINGS: As for Governor Martin O'Malley:

• 45% view the Governor favorably
• 36% view the Governor unfavorably

BALLOT QUESTION RESULTS: But the the survey results on a few key issues in Maryland are a bit interesting. First, Goucher's poll confirms a sizeable lead in support for both marriage equality (Question 6) and the Dream Act (Question 4). But surprisingly, they are showing that a majority of respondents favor gambling expansion (Question 7). Other polls had been showing a more even divide on this question. Notably, 87% of Marylanders have reported seeing the endless array of gambing ads on television. See a summary of the results below:

• Gambling Expansion (Question 7): 50% For vs. 44% Against
• Marriage Equality (Question 6): 55% For vs. 39% Against
• Dream Act (Question 4): 57% For vs. 39% Against

PIT-BULL RULING: Goucher also asked respondents to weigh in on whether they agreed or disagreed with the Maryland court ruling that pit bulls are "inherently dangerous."

• Ruling Pit Bulls "Inherently Dangerous": 42% Agree vs. 52% disagree

See the Goucher poll results below:
Goucher Ballot Question & Pit Bull Poll Results

Goucher Obama-Romney-O'Malley Approval Ratings