POLL: MD Supports Obama, Hogan, Pot & Immigrants (1 Is Not Like The Others) // PLUS: Marylanders on Presidential Race

By Matt Verghese

Below Maryland Juice provides highlights from a new Goucher Poll on the Presidential race, Governor Larry Hogan and a few policy debates. You can see the summary data below. A few quick items of interest:

1. Slim majorities of Marylanders approve of Larry Hogan & Barack Obama's jobs, but many residents don't yet have an opinion on Hogan.
2. Governor Hogan's issue ratings are lower, and he receives his lowest marks on education -- the most important issues facing the state and the only issue where Democrats disapprove 
3. Marylanders support marijuana legalization, and a super-majority of residents support a path to citizenship for undocumented residents.
4. Marylanders disapprove of the job Congress is doing by a whopping 83%.
5. It's early in the Presidential race, but Hillary Clinton tops the polls for Maryland Democrats & Martin O'Malley is scraping the bottom in his own state

Who Would Maryland Democrats Vote for in Presidential Primary?

• Hillary Clinton: 43%
• Joe Biden: 23%
• Bernie Sanders: 17%
• Martin O'Malley: 2%

Who Do Maryland Democrats Think Will Win Nomination?

• Hillary Clinton: 54%
• Joe Biden: 14%
• Bernie Sanders: 8%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Job as Governor:

• Approve: 58%
• Disapprove: 18%
• Don't Know: 23%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Handling of Issues (ranked by importance):

	Approve	Disapprove
Public education	40	33	+7
Taxes	51	29	+22
Economic growth	52	21	+31
Job creation	42	28	+14
Crime	43	32	+11
Transportation	50	29	+21
Environment	43	27	+16

Marylanders' Approval of President Obama's Job as President:

• Approve: 53%
• Disapprove: 38%
• Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders' Approval of Congress' Job:

• Disapprove: 83%
• Approve: 9%
• Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders on Marijuana Legalization:

• Support Legalization: 52%
• Oppose Legalization: 42%

Marylanders on Who Should Decide Marijuana Policy:

• States Should Decide: 64%
• Federal Government Should Decide: 31%

Marylanders on Redistricting:

• Prefer Independent Commission: 73%
• Prefer Redistricting by Electeds: 21%

Marylanders on Starting School After Labor Day:

• Support Starting After Labor Day: 72%
• Oppose Starting After Labor Day: 19%

Marylanders on Undocumented Immigrants:

• Allow Them to Stay In Jobs With Path to Citizenship: 62%
• Make Them Leave Jobs & the USA: 20%
• Allow Them to Stay Temporarly In Jobs Without Path to Citizenship: 13%

POLL: Maryland Democrats & Republicans Divided on Pot Legalization, Gun Control, Immigration & Marriage Equality

Goucher College released a new poll last week highlighting Marylanders' opinions on a range of issues including marijuana, marriage equality, gun control and immigration reform. Below you can see the results of the poll, including breakdowns by political party affiliation and race. I've flagged a few of the more interesting results below.

STATEWIDE SUMMARY: The major items in Goucher's statewide poll reveal that:

• 72% of Marylanders think marriage equality either changed things for the better or had no effect, while only 23% think it changed things for the worse. 

• On gun control, 54.5% of voters think the new gun regulations were about right or not strict enough, while only 26.6% think they were too strict. 

• On immigration, 53.4% of Marylanders support allowing undocumented immigrants to keep their jobs and apply for citizenship, while only 25.9% think we should kick undocumented immigrants out of their jobs and the country. 

• On the War on Drugs, 50.9% of Marylanders support or strongly support marijuana legalization, whereas 40.3% of residents oppose or strongly oppose legalization. 

• But on the issue of whether jail time is an appropriate penalty for marijuana possession, only 5.8% of Marylanders support criminalizing marijuana. In contrast, 82.6% of residents support changing the penalty for possession to a ticket or rehab.

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS DIVIDED ON MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, GUN CONTROL, IMMIGRATION AND MARRIAGE EQUALITY - When you consider that Maryland is effectively a one-party state (where most high-profile races are won in the Democratic Primary), it becomes useful to take the statewide polling numbers above with a grain of salt. Indeed, when you restrict the survey results to only Democrats or Republicans, the results shift quite a bit and reveal partisan divides on these hot-button issues.

A strong majority of Democrats, Independents and third party residents support marijuana legalization, whereas Republicans were the only group where respondents were more likely to oppose than to support legalization. But even still, nearly 2 in 5 Republicans support legalization (aka almost half). On immigration, a super-majority of Democrats support allowing undocumented immigrants to stay and seek citizenship, but Republicans were divided with 39% seeking to kick them out, and 31% allowing them to stay and seek citizenship. You can see my table summarizing the survey results by party below:

Democrats

• 64% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 57% Support Marijuana Legalization
• 44% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 35% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 35% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 20% Support Kicking Undocumented Immigrants Out Of Their Jobs & the Country
• 18% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 13% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

Republicans

• 55% Oppose Marijuana Legalization
• 39% Want Undocumented Immigrants Out of their Jobs & the Country
• 39% Think Marriage Equality Had No Effect
• 38% Support Marijuana Legalization
• --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• 34% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Worse
• 31% Support Allowing Undocumented Immigrants to Stay in Jobs & Seek Citizenship
• 19% Think Marriage Equality Changed Things for the Better
• 18% Support a Temporary Guest-Worker Program for Undocumented Immigrants

RESULTS BY RACE FOR MARIJUANA AND IMMIGRATION - There are a few more interesting items in Goucher's polling crosstabs (which you can read below), but I would note a couple tidbits. A strong majority of black Marylanders support marijuana legalization, though a majority of white Marylanders also support legalization. The non-white/non-black category is the only race group where more respondents opposed than supported legalization, albeit by a slim margin of 3%. Black Marylanders were also the strongest supporters of immigrant rights, with 62% of black respondents supporting allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in their jobs and seek citizenship. You can read the polling memos below:

Goucher College November 2013 Poll Crosstabs on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

Goucher College November 2013 Poll on Marijuana, Marriage Equality & Immigration

POLL RESULTS: 57% of Marylanders Support Marriage Equality // Surge in African American Support After Obama Endorsement

UPDATE: The release of the polling numbers today is making national waves. In an article titled "Did Obama Just Deliver Marriage Equality in Maryland?" Mother Jones magazine printed the following analysis (excerpt below):

MOTHER JONES: ...Understand that exploiting the divide between socially conservative but religiously liberal minority groups and social liberals was the linchpin of NOM's strategy in Maryland, which is a very blue state with a large black population. NOM simply can't win without winning black voters, and Obama may have made that impossible. Instead of black voters torpedoeing marriage equality in Maryland, as NOM had hoped, they now stand poised to secure it.

Marylanders for Marriage Equality has released a new poll showing a decisive majority of voters would now support same-sex marriage in November. One key shift is that African American voters have swung heavily in favor of marriage equality in the weeks following President Barack Obama's endorsement for the proposal. See the press release and full poll results below.



THIS IS WHY DEMOCRATIC LEADERS NEED TO BE GOOD ROLE MODELS    
PRESS RELEASE New Poll: 57% of Maryland Voters Would Vote ‘Yes’ on Marriage Referendum

African-American support for same-sex marriage has surged
BALTIMORE – A new Public Policy Poll of Maryland voters shows a decisive majority (57%) would vote in favor of same-sex marriage if it's on the ballot this fall, while 37% would vote against. This is a 12-point swing in support from two months earlier and is due to growing African-American support in Maryland since both President Obama and the NAACP endorsed same-sex marriage.

“Things are moving in Maryland,” said Josh Levin, campaign manager for Marylanders for Marriage Equality. “We’re approaching a supermajority who want to uphold the state’s new marriage law. The message of stronger families and greater fairness is resonating, and we’re confident Maryland will be the first state to win a ballot measure on marriage equality and religious freedom."

In a memo, PPP pollster Tom Jensen notes there has been a “major shift in opinion about gay marriage among black voters [in Maryland].” Fifty-five percent of African Americans now say they would vote for the law and only 36% oppose it. These numbers have essentially flipped since PPP conducted an identical poll in March.

"Those opposed to same-sex marriage have some ground to make up," added Levin.

The Maryland data are in line with recent national polls reflecting majority African-American support. Yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll registered 59 percent of African-Americans who expressed support for same-sex marriage – an 18-point jump from polls taken before the President's announcement.

“The President’s backing of marriage equality has added to our momentum– and his being on the November ballot also helps us,” Levin said. “Younger voters, who are overwhelmingly supportive, are much more likely to turn out in a presidential year."

An overwhelming majority of Obama voters in Maryland and almost a third of Romney voters favor same-sex marriage.

The Civil Marriage Protection Act passed the Maryland legislature and was signed into law by Governor Martin O’Malley. Committed gay and lesbian couples can get a marriage license from the courthouse beginning in January, should voters approve the law. Churches and other religious institutions do not have to marry a gay or lesbian couple if they don’t want to.

Today's PPP poll, commissioned by Marylanders for Marriage Equality, surveyed 852 likely voters, including an oversample of 398 African Americans between May 14 - 21. The overall margin of error is +/-3.4% and for African-Americans it is +/-4.9%.  The polling memo can be found here. 

Marylanders for Marriage Equality, the coalition working to defend Maryland’s new civil marriage law, is made up of 1199 SEIU, ACLU of Maryland, Equality Maryland, Human Rights Campaign, and others.



### Maryland Marriage Equality Poll - May 2012