Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Maryland Juice Prediction: Robin Ficker Will Win GOP Nod for 6th Congressional District

Robin Ficker is a capable and diligent campaigner who has championed the Grover Norquist view of small government (ie: tax cuts are the solution to every problem). Indeed, in an article today Maryland Reporter notes that Mr. Ficker is pledging to dog Democratic State Senator Rob Garagiola throughout the campaign for Maryland's 6th Congressional District. Mr. Ficker apparently agrees with Maryland Juice's assessment yesterday that Mr. Garagiola is the current frontrunner in the race. Look at Mr. Ficker's ridiculous new homemade lawnsign frame:

But Mr. Ficker has something to cheer about himself. Maryland Juice believes Robin Ficker Realty is the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination for the CD6 race. Mr. Ficker has served as a Delegate and has run for office both statewide and countywide. He's also got a committed base of supporters and may start with higher name ID than other candidates in the race -- especially in the new CD6.

Montgomery County Republicans are likely to play a large role in selecting the CD6 nominee. The table below shows how many voters there are within the new CD6 from each of the five counties that the new District includes. I wanted to crudely make my point, so I also added in the total Countywide 2008 GOP Presidential Primary turnout from each of the five counties. Note that Montgomery County is divided between CD6, CD3, and CD8 -- but if even a third of the MoCo GOP resides in the new CD6, those voters will be very influential.

County  |  # of Voters in New CD6   |  2008 Countywide GOP Presidential Primary Turnout
  • Allegany  |  61,568  |  19,642
  • Frederick  |  87,354  |  56,885
  • Garrett  |  24,437  |  11,115
  • Montgomery  |  265,979  | 124,543
  • Washington  |  113,651  |  37,672
[New CD6 County Population Counts] |  [Maryland 2008 Presidential Primary Turnout (by party)]

Robin Ficker winning the nomination would have to mean he appeals to GOP voters beyond Montgomery County, but that shouldn't be too hard to imagine -- his anti-tax message will appeal to all the nuts in his party, I'm sure -- but note that his lawnsigns are about taxes, not about one's native tongue (like that guy with the Speak English lawnsign).

Now if my predictions are wrong, you don't get anything -- but maybe, just maybe, I'll invite the fine young men over at the GOP bloggers' Red Maryland Society Club to come share a cup with me in the real world of Montgomery -- it might be filled with wine, beer, horchata (mmmm) or a million other beverages.... We won't judge what you pick.

As for Mr. Ficker -- Maryland Juice would like to provide him with some help before the campaign begins in earnest. I am going to provide him with some quotes to put on his literature and fundraising solictations:
  • "Robin Ficker is the man Democrats fear most to take on Rob Garagiola"
  • "Robin Ficker's dogged anti-tax advocacy makes him enemy-number one for most Democrats"

If the GOP tries to push an establishment candidate into the race, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Fred Tuttle moment (ie: see the little guy beat an establishment politician in the GOP primary). There seems to be a lot of populist fire in the Republican Party right now....

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