Monday, October 1, 2012

MARYLAND POLL RESULTS: Montgomery County Sinking Gambling Expansion // PLUS: Romney Winning White Voters

This weekend, The Baltimore Sun released poll results for a number of items on Maryland's Presidential Election ballot. The findings come days after the release of similar survey results from Gonzales Research. The two polls found mostly similar results, but a few questions yielded fairly divergent conclusions. Below we provide a comparison of the Gonzales and Sun polls, along with commentary on a couple of interesting crosstabs:
Presidential Race:
  • Gonzales Research - Obama 55% vs. Romney 36%
  • Baltimore Sun - Obama 57% vs. Romney 34%

Question 4 - Dream Act:
  • Gonzales Research - For 58% vs. Against 34%
  • Baltimore Sun - For 44% vs. Against 41%

Question 6 - Marriage Equality:
  • Gonzales Research - For 51% vs. Against 43%
  • Baltimore Sun - For 49% vs. Against 39%

Question 7 - Gambling Expansion:
  • Gonzales Research - For 45% vs. Against 46%
  • Baltimore Sun - For 38% vs. Against 53%

QUICK ANALYSIS: The Baltimore Sun and Gonzales polls confirm the broad trendlines for Maryland's November electorate, but they still differ on the magnitude of these trends. For example, both polling companies have Obama beating Romney by about 20 points in Maryland. But on the Dream Act (Question 4), Gonzales has in-state tuition rates passing by a 24% margin, while The Sun shows a narrow lead of only 3%.

Meanwhile, on marriage equality (Question 6), both polling firms show a rough 10% lead for civil rights advocates. But on gambling expansion (Question 7), Gonzales shows gambling opponents defeating the measure by a mere 1%, while The Sun shows gambling expansion losing by almost 15%. These are large differences between the two polls.


INTERESTING CROSSTABS // ROMNEY WINS WHITES & MOCO SINKS GAMBLING: One interesting note from The Baltimore Sun poll is that their results show white voters in Maryland narrowly favoring Mitt Romney 47%  vs. 43% for Obama. But a whopping 91% of African American voters in their survey are supporting Obama. When you mash these numbers together, you get a final outcome where Obama leads 57% to 34%. Again, this shows the massive impact that demography has on Maryland elections. The Sun also highlighted two more notable crosstabs (excerpts below):
BALTIMORE SUN: Voters under 35 support same-sex marriage 61 percent to 22 percent.... Meanwhile, those against the gambling measure have opened up a huge gap in voter enthusiasm, with 43 percent of opponents saying their views are strongly held. On the other side, only 24 percent say they are strong in their support.

The results are especially challenging for gambling supporters, led by MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment, because the pool of voters describing themselves as undecided is shallow, 8 percent....

The Democratic rejection of the gambling measure is largely driven by negative numbers in the party stronghold of Montgomery County, where 54 percent of voters plan to vote no and only 34 percent yes.

MORE ON MARYLAND'S BALLOT QUESTION BATTLES SOON!

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