Sunday, November 4, 2012

FINAL TURNOUT ANALYSIS: Democrats Crushed Republicans During Maryland's Early Voting // KEY FACTS & FIGURES

Maryland has now completed its early voting period, and the Board of Elections now has turnout figures for all five days of early voting. Below we provide our quick and dirty analysis of the turnout data, and along the way we highlight a few interesting tidbits. The full data sheets are at the bottom of this post.

JUICE #1: DEMOCRATS TROUNCED REPUBLICANS IN EARLY VOTE TURNOUT - The most important fact from 2012 early voting in Maryland is that Democrats participated in early balloting at a far higher rate than Republicans:

430,573 voters or fully 11.65% of all eligible voters turned out for early voting this year. But within the early voting population, Democrats participated at a significantly higher rate than Republicans or independents. 13.94% of Democrats voted early, compared to only 9.31% of Republicans. See the early vote breakdown by party:
  1. Democrat - 287,057 (13.94% of eligible Democrats)
  2. Republican - 89,393 (9.31% of eligible Republicans)
  3. Unaffiliated - 49,773 (8.09% of eligible independents)
  4. Libertarian - 714 (6.34% of eligible Libertarians)
  5. Green - 574 (6.59% of eligible Greens)
  6. Americans Elect - 6 (4.58% of eligible Americans Elect members)
  7. Other - 3,056 (7.59% of eligible members of other parties)
JUICE #2: FAR MORE WOMEN THAN MEN TURNED OUT TO VOTE EARLY - In Maryland, many more women participated in early voting than men. The Board of Elections reports that 252,516 women turned out vs. 177,819 men - roughly a split of 59% to 41%. Notably, nearly 72% of women who voted early were Democrats. In fact, the single largest reported turnout bracket was from Democratic women age 45-65. 88,207 voters fitting this category came out to vote -- far higher than any other group:



JUICE #3: 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT HAD LOWEST EARLY VOTE TURNOUT - Maryland's most heated Congressional race was in last place for early vote turnout among the state's 8 U.S. House Districts. The CD6 contest featuring Democrat John Delaney vs. Republican Roscoe Bartlett is apparently not motivating voters to turnout in high rates. In fact, the boring CD7 race had the highest early vote turnout in the state. But in that district, incumbent Democrat Elijah Cummings is expected to easily win re-election against GOP candidate Frank Mirabile, Jr. Check out the ranking of early vote turnout by Congressional District (Note: I listed the incumbent for each district next to the turnout rate):
  • District 7 - 13.68% - Rep. Elijah Cummings - HIGHEST TURNOUT
  • District 5 - 12.03% - Rep. Steny Hoyer
  • District 4 - 11.98% - Rep. Donna Edwards
  • District 1 - 11.72% - Rep. Andy Harris
  • District 3 - 11.51% - Rep. John Sarbanes
  • District 2 - 10.78% - Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger
  • District 8 - 10.74% - Rep. Chris Van Hollen
  • District 6 - 10.62% - Rep. Roscoe Bartlett - LOWEST TURNOUT

JUICE #4: TURNOUT BY COUNTY // TALBOT COUNTY IN FIRST PLACE - Below you can see the early vote turnout ranked by county. Talbot County came in first place, as nearly 1 in 4 eligible voters there cast an early ballot. Last place goes to Allegany County, where a scant 6.4% of voters participated early.
  1. Talbot - 23.51% - HIGHEST TURNOUT
  2. Kent - 18.94%
  3. Howard - 16.15%
  4. Caroline - 13.02%
  5. Montgomery - 12.65%
  6. Queen Anne's - 12.43%
  7. Prince George's - 12.30%
  8. Charles - 12.27%
  9. Dorchester - 12.22%
  10. Somerset - 12.07%
  11. Calvert - 11.96%
  12. Baltimore City - 11.59%
  13. Wicomico - 11.37%
  14. Saint Mary's - 11.10%
  15. Anne Arundel - 10.94%
  16. Baltimore County - 10.91%
  17. Harford - 10.24%
  18. Carroll - 9.43%
  19. Cecil - 9.42% 
  20. Frederick - 9.36%
  21. Washington - 8.42%
  22. Garrett - 8.28%
  23. Worcester - 7.82%
  24. Allegany - 6.40% - LOWEST TURNOUT

JUICE #5: TOP 5 EARLY VOTE LOCATIONS IN MARYLAND - Below you can see the top five polling locations in Maryland for early voter turnout. Note that three of the five locations in are in the Democratic Party's rapidly growing vote-anchor in Montgomery County:
  1. Montgomery County: Germantown Recreation Center: 18,261 voters
  2. Montgomery County: Silver Spring Civic Building: 17,220 voters
  3. Harford County: McFaul Activities Center: 16,338 voters
  4. Baltimore County: Randallstown Community Center: 16,184 voters
  5. Montgomery County: Bauer Drive Community Recreation Center: 15,622 voters

JUICE #6: TOP 5 LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS FOR EARLY VOTE TURNOUT - Below you can see the top five legislative districts in Maryland for voter turnout. My own District 20 made the list! Note that the top performing early vote districts appear to be Democratic strongholds:
  1. DISTRICT 12B - 21.56% (Howard County/Columbia, MD)
  2. DISTRICT 10 - 20.37% (Baltimore County/Randallstown, MD)
  3. DISTRICT 23B - 20.36% (Prince George's County/Bowie, MD)
  4. DISTRICT 20 - 18.93% (Montgomery County/Silver Spring-Takoma Park, MD)
  5. DISTRICT 41 - 17.20% (Baltimore City)
Maryland 2012 Final Early Vote Turnout Report

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