ROB SOBHANI'S VIEWS REVEALED: But now, a Maryland Juice reader has forwarded us scans of a voter guide that Sobhani's campaign team is handing out at the polls. Rob Sobhani is encouraging voters to support his campaign for Senate, and also to support Barack Obama's re-election. But it appears that Sobhani is also telling voters to "vote against" all of the ballot questions, including marriage equality (Question 6) and the Dream Act (Question 4). See the sample ballot below:
Below Maryland Juice provides a blend of news tidbits about the current election battles, starting with early vote news:
JUICE #1: NO EARLY VOTING TODAY (MONDAY) - In case you haven't already heard, Gov. Martin O'Malley has shut down early voting today, due to the Hurricane. He made the announcement in a recent storm update (excerpt below):
GOVERNOR O'MALLEY: Since Thursday October 25, the entire state of Maryland has been under a state of emergency. Hurricane Sandy is fast approaching and forecasters predict that it will be a large, violent storm that could knock out power for a few days and cause significant damage. This is a serious, killer storm. It's important that everyone is vigilant.... Due to the storm, we are canceling early voting on Monday October 29, 2012.
Question 6 supporters at Baltimore City poll
JUICE #2: BALTIMORE CITY VIDEO // MARRIAGE EQUALITY VOLUNTEERS DOMINATE POLL COVERAGE
- A Maryland Juice reader (Hat tip: Lisa Polyak) sent us the following video footage of the last-minute campaigning at a Baltimore City early voting location.
The clip below was shot yesterday, the second day of Early Voting in Maryland, and it includes Maryland Juice's "Obama + Dream Act + Marriage Equality" lawnsign. (Note: video edited by Juice):
LISA POLYAK: I shot short video walking the line of folks waiting to get into the polling sign-in at the League for People With Disabilities polling station on Cold Spring Lane. Wait time estimated at 1.5-2 hours. Note the only folks staffing the voter line were YES on 6; NO on 7 and YES on 7. Fun shot at the end is someone who was walking the line (yesterday & today) with one of your Obama/Dream Act/Marriage Equality signs.
JUICE #3: DEMS MAINTAIN EARLY VOTE ADVANTAGE ON DAY 2 // DEM WOMEN 45-65 DOMINATING TURNOUT
- Yesterday, we reported that the first day of early voting demonstrated greater enthusiasm from Democratic voters in Maryland. They turned out at nearly twice the rate as Republicans, and the latest report from the Board of Elections proves it wasn't a fluke. Dems turned out at nearly twice the rate of Republicans on the second day of early voting. Also of note is that Democratic women age 45-65 are turning out in far larger numbers than any other group (see page 5 of the full BOE report below). In fact, twice as many women fitting that profile turned out than the next highest group -- Democratic men age 45-65, who are in 2nd place. But first, here's the current total D & R turnout from the first two days of balloting:
Democrats91,185 (4.43%) vs. Republicans26,809 (2.79%)
JUICE #4: U.S. SENATE RACE BECOMES BATTLE FOR 2ND PLACE FOR MARYLAND GOP
- The Capital Gazette today quotes a politico who highlights the shabby state of the Maryland GOP. The article notes that Maryland's U.S. Senate battle between Ben Cardin, Rob Sobhani, and Dan Bongino has become a race for 2nd place (Hat tip: Maryland Reporter). Indeed, with Cardin so far ahead in the race, the Maryland GOP stands to lose a lot of face. Even still, Maryland Juice doubts that a trouncing this year will lead to much soul-searching by the Free State Republicans. See an excerpt from The Capital Gazette below:
CAPITAL GAZETTE: “...anybody who observes Maryland politics and isn’t partisan has to agree: Maryland’s Republican Party is a mess.” [Todd] Eberly, a political independent, said the GOP is simply too conservative for the bulk of Maryland voters, who do not consider “progressive” a dirty word. “You don’t run a candidate who would win in Texas, in Maryland,” Eberly said.... The real challenge for the GOP may be staying out of third place.
JUICE #5: CRAZY FULL PAGE ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AD IN BALTIMORE SUN
- A reader sent us the following photos of a full-page ad in yesterday's Baltimore Sun urging Christians to oppose marriage equality. They also provide us with choice quotes from the screed. See below. Notably, a majority of Christians support LGBT rights.
BALTIMORE SUN ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AD: "Gay marriage is Satan's unfinished business - a repeat scene, similar to the one recorded in the garden of Eden, where Satan tempted Eve, 'in the day you eat from the tree your eyes will be open and you will be like God, knowing good and evil (Genesis 3:5).' In the leaglization of gay marriage, man is now like God, determining good and evil."
The closing tag line states:
This Treatise is Encouraged by the People of God at the Upper Cross Roads Baptist Church, Baldwin, MD (Dr. Robert A. Condict, Pastor)
IF YOU ARE A CHRISTIAN, 'STAND FIRM IN THE FAITH...BE ALERT AND SOBER' - VOTE "AGAINST" QUESTION 6.
JUICE #6: LAST CHANCE TO ADVERTISE ON MARYLAND JUICE BEFORE THE ELECTION // BID BEFORE 4 PM TODAY - Maryland Juice is offering a rare opportunity to advertise on our blog (we rarely do this). We are hosting an eBay auction for ad space that will appear on every page and article at MarylandJuice.com for the week of the November 6 election. But note that the auction ends today around 4 pm, and the current high bid right now is a measly $10! Bid now to snatch up a bargain.
WASHINGTON POST: Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin’s reelection race has become more like a stroll, with a new Washington Post poll showing most Marylanders ready to give him a second term next month....
In the new Post poll, Cardin (D) wins 53 percent among likely voters. Bongino wins 22 percent, while Sobhani — who entered the race in September — has 14 percent. (Libertarian Party candidate Dean Ahmad receives about 2 percent.)
In the Post poll, Sobhani wins 19 percent among Republicans and independents who lean to the GOP. His base of support is clearly among political independents, where he wins 28 percent support, according to the poll.
WASHINGTON POST: There are two plausible explanations for the apparently lopsided race for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland, in which the incumbent, Benjamin L. Cardin, seems to be gliding to reelection.
One is that Mr. Cardin, a Democrat elected in 2006, is a solid, substantive and serious lawmaker whose proven ability to cross partisan battle lines places him among the dwindling ranks of grown-ups in Congress. The other is the catatonic state of Maryland’s Republican Party, which, having once produced electable moderates like former governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and former representative Connie Morella, has sunk into irrelevance....
The Republican, Daniel Bongino, is a former Secret Service agent whose strident attacks on government and pledge never to raise taxes earned him the endorsement of Sarah Palin.
CAPITAL GAZETTE: Democratic incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin has agreed to meet Republican Challenger Dan Bongino of Severna Park and independent Rob Sobhani of Montgomery County on Oct. 30 at Salisbury University for their first announced debate....
The Salisbury debate will be held at 3 p.m. in Holloway Hall Auditorium. Admission is free, and will come on a first-come, first-serve basis. Questions, complete with the name and hometown of the person submitting the question, can be sent to pace@salisbury.edu.
Below Maryland Juice highlights two new polls, plus a television ad from U.S. Senator Ben Cardin.
JUICE #1: WASHINGTON POST POLL HAS DREAM ACT WITH HUGE LEAD - The Washington Post released more poll results today, and this time they are showing the Dream Act (Question 4) with a large lead (excerpt below):
WASHINGTON POST: Maryland voters broadly support a measure that would allow undocumented immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates at public colleges and universities, according to a new Washington Post poll. A referendum on the law appears as Question 4 on the November ballot. The poll finds 59 percent of likely voters back the plan; 35 percent are opposed....
In Maryland, the poll finds fully three-quarters of Democrats and 58 percent of independent voters supporting the measure.... White voters divide roughly evenly on the subject, while non-whites favor it by a huge margin — 75 to 19 percent. More than seven in 10 voters with postgraduate degrees say they would vote yes, including a majority who say they feel strongly about it.
JUICE #2: NEW POLL SHOWS RESULTS IF ONLY CARDIN & BONGINO WERE RUNNING FOR SENATE - The Takoma Park Patch flagged new poll results today in Maryland's U.S. Senate race (Hat tip: Howard Gorrell). They note that pollsters did not include independent candidate Rob Sobhani in their survey. While that makes the results more of a curiosity than anything else, I think it is worth noting that incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin would still be crushing GOP nominee Dan Bongino right now:
TAKOMA PARK PATCH: We have a new poll for the state of Maryland from YouGov which shows, not surprisingly, Barack Obama and Ben Cardin ahead in their respective races.
JUICE #3: NEW TELEVISION AD FROM SENATOR BEN CARDIN - U.S. Senator Ben Cardin is out with a new tv ad in his race against Rob Sobhani and Dan Bongino. The spot features former World War II fighter pilot Maurice “Mo” Mallinoff who lives in Silver Spring, and it is airing in the Baltimore and DC markets. Watch below:
Here's a random blend of political tidbits from recent news, starting with the latest poll results in Maryland's marriage equality battle (Question 6):
WASHINGTON POST: Maryland voters are leaning toward legalizing same-sex marriage next month, something that has never happened at the ballot box anywhere in the nation, a new Washington Post poll finds.
A ballot question on whether to uphold a state law allowing gay nuptials is favored 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, according to the poll, reflecting a long-term trend toward greater acceptance of gay unions that has included President Obama’s backing this year....
Across the state, support is highest in Montgomery County, where 65 percent of likely voters back the measure and 31 percent oppose it....
Age also plays a big factor in Marylanders’ views of same-sex marriage. Sixty-four percent of those 18 to 39 support Question 6. That drops to 51 percent of those ages 40 to 64, and 40 percent of those 65 and older.
Maryland Juice's key takeaway -- pro-marriage equality forces need high turnout in Montgomery County and among younger voters. Don't let us down young people/MoCo -- it's time for a generational & regional shift in Maryland politics!
JUICE #2: SEN. BEN CARDIN AMASSES $2 MILLION CASH ON HAND
- U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, who was last reported to have a comfortable lead over his challengers, now reports $2 million cash on hand as we hit the homestretch. Cardin has faced an onslaught of television advertising from independent candidate Rob Sobhani, who has the ability to self-finance massive television buys. See the press release below:
PRESS RELEASE
CARDIN ENTERS FINAL WEEKS OF CAMPAIGN 2012 WITH
$2 MILLION CASH ON HAND
Baltimore, MD – With his new television ad already on the air throughout Maryland, U.S. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) announced that he is ready for the final weeks of his re-election campaign with $2,001,860 cash-on-hand as of September 30. During this third quarter of 2012, Senator Cardin raised $621,875 bringing his cycle-to-date total to $6,347,868.
Senator Cardin has received nearly 13,000 individual contributions over the course of this election cycle, with more than half of those being less than $200.
JUICE #3: MARYLAND YOUTHS GET POLITICAL WITH VAN HOLLEN, HOYER & MORE
- Numerous youth-driven political organizations are getting active this political cycle, including a few new entities. A Maryland Juice reader tipped us off to a relatively new group called Our Time, which is currently featuring videos from two Free State U.S. House members: Rep. Chris Van Hollen & Rep. Steny Hoyer.
Our Time's mission statement highlights a unique goal: "to combine the voting and purchasing power of young Americans so that politicians and businesses represent our needs better. Currently, they are not doing a good job."
NEXT GENERATION MARYLAND: We want you to rock the progressive youth vote Marriage equality and the Maryland DREAM Act will both be on the ballot in November. The rights of your fellow Marylanders hinge on these crucial votes. Next Generation Maryland aims to mobilize the youth vote to protect these landmark pieces of legislation.
MONTGOMERY COUNTY STUDENT COALITION: Lastly, Montgomery County high school students are now launching an effort to activate and mobilize students for policy changes in Annapolis, and the Montgomery County County Council and school board. Their effort is called the "Montgomery County Student Coalition," and it appears that one of their top priorities is pushing for full voting rights for the student member of MoCo's Board of Education (excerpt below):
MOCO STUDENT COALITION: Full voting rights for Montgomery County’s Student Member Of The Board of Education is closer than ever to becoming a reality. For 35 years, the student who occupies the eighth seat at the Board table has been left without a vote on such critical matters as the budget, collective bargaining, school openings/closings, issues of redistricting/boundaries, and negative personnel. MC 9-12, a bill that reverses this original certitude now has a renewed chance to become reality this year.
JUICE #4: NEW TELEVISION AD FROM GAMBLING EXPANSION OPPONENTS
- The forces opposing Maryland's Question 7 (gambling expansion) are out with a new television advertisement. In the spot below, the advocates continue to try and undermine the idea that more gambling in Maryland will lead to increased education funding. Watch below:
Meanwhile, Maryland Juice has heard from one reader that boxer Oscar De La Hoya has launched a robocall promoting gambling expansion in Maryland. Hmm.
Over the course of the last few weeks, Maryland politicos have seen hundreds of thousands of dollars of television advertising from independent U.S. Senate candidate Rob Sobhani. The former Republican candidate has been trying to appeal to members of both parties, and that has led both Democrats and Republicans to question Sobhani's motives.
Rob Sobhani campaigning in Montgomery County
Maryland Juice decided to try and find out more about where Rob Sobhani stands on key "values" issues, so we asked him to respond to several questions. Today, we present the results of our exclusive email interview with Maryland's independent U.S. Senate candidate. NOTE: I am aware that several of the issues I raise below are slightly unrelated to the roles and responsibilities of a U.S. Senator -- but I think it is important for voters to hear where Sobhani is coming from on hot topics. Below you can see his responses on a range of issues, including support for a flat tax and support for death penalty repeal (or at least a moratorium).
Without further ado, Maryland Juice presents the following Q & A with Rob Sobhani:
Maryand Juice Question 1 // November Ballot Questions: How do you plan on voting on the hot-button ballot questions this November? In particular, I am curious about where you stand on:
NEW SOBHANI AD ATTACKS CARDIN: The dynamics in Maryland's U.S. Senate battle are beginning to shift. Last month, we reported that independent candidate Rob Sobhani was tied for 2nd place with GOP nominee Dan Bongino. But Sobhani is appearing to try and position himself as the alternative to Ben Cardin today, with a new ad attacking the incumbent Democrat by name (watch below):
RIGHTWING SUPER PAC ATTACKS SOBHANI: Meanwhile, Republican Dan Bongino's supporters are busy trying to keep the anti-Cardin vote from drifting to Rob Sobhani. A conservative "Super PAC" called the Conservative Victory PAC has released a negative video slamming Sobhani and promoting Bongino (watch below). The Super PAC's "about us" section states:
Conservative Victory PAC is both a federal and a Super PAC dedicated to supporting conservative political candidates for office in Annapolis and in Washington, DC.
The text accompanying the ad states:
CONSERVATIVE VICTORY PAC: Why a candidate chose to run for office is an important thing to consider. Dan Bongino's reason has resonated with supporters across Maryland. Despite Rob Sobhani buying his way onto the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate, Dan Bongino is the only true independent voice in the race. Dan is the only one speaking for Marylanders.
Independent U.S. Senate candidate Rob Sobhani is out with a new 60-second tv spot. The advertisement, titled "We Are Family" makes an explicit appeal to members of both parties:
Sobhani is running as an independent, but Maryland Juice is trying to find out more about his stances on the issues. We recently sent him a series of questions via email. We'll let you know when and if he responds to our survey of the issues facing Maryland.
Not a big surprise here, but The Gazette has endorsed Ben Cardin for re-election to the U.S. Senate. Cardin is running against independent Rob Sobhani and GOP nominee Dan Bongino. See a quick excerpt below:
GAZETTE: By his own admission, Bongino remains an outsider with much of his own party. His views most closely resemble those of the tea party; he even gained the endorsement of Sarah Palin.
Sobhani makes all sorts of promises about securing investments for Maryland without specifics on how he would do it....
When all is said and done, Cardin remains the best hope for Maryland’s electorate. Besides being the most experienced candidate, he brings a willingness to work with others, an understanding of the scope of problems facing the United States — including legislative gridlock and the economy — and compassion for his fellow citizens.
PLUS: BEN CARDIN & DAN BONGINO MAY INVITE ROB SOBHANI TO DEBATE
The battle for U.S. Senate in Maryland is beginning to heat up, but new polls indicate the real fight appears to be for second place. Incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin is way ahead in the polls, but independent Rob Sobhani and Republican challenger Dan Bongino are currently tied for second.
Today Maryland Juice received campaign ads from both Rob Sobhani and Dan Bongino. You can see both ads below, along with an update on whether Rob Sobhani will be invited to debates with his GOP and Democratic competitors.
U.S. SENATE AD #1: ROB SOBHANI TARGETS MOCO WITH DIRECT MAIL - Today Maryland Juice received a postcard from independent U.S. Senate candidate Rob Sobhani. In the new
ad, Sobhani argues that "Montgomery County is the key to jump starting
Maryland's Economy." This mail campaign comes at the same time that
Sobhani is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television advertising. Read Sobhani's appeal to MoCo voters below:
U.S. SENATE AD #2: GOP CANDIDATE DAN BONGINO RELEASES SPANISH-LANGUAGE VIDEO AD - Yesterday, a Maryland Juice reader forwarded (via Twitter) the following new video ad from Republican candidate Dan Bongino. Notably, the ad is in Spanish and features Bongino's wife (who was born in Colombia). The ad also comes with the following text:
DAN BONGINO: Dan Bongino, candidato a senador de los Estados Unidos para Maryland presentó hoy un video donde aparece su esposa, Paula, una ciudadana Americana nacida en Cali,Colombia.
Dan y su esposa, Paula, forman parte de una nueva generación de republicanos en este ciclo de elecciones que creen apasionadamente que el futuro de los Estados Unidos se encuentra en el espíritu emprendedor y en la dedicación incansable para un futuro mejor.
"Paula es una madre y esposa afectuosa, y una orgullosa Americana", afirma Dan. "El juramento a nuestra bandera en la ceremonia de su ciudadanía fue uno de los días más importantes en nuestras vidas. Estamos construyendo campaña en todas las comunidades diversas de Maryland, para que los ciudadanos se den cuenta que un cambio verdadero y un futuro mejor están a la vuelta de la esquina".
Paula Bongino es una inmigrante de primera generación, que con su constante determinación y su árduo trabajo logró alcanzar el sueño Americano. Es una consultora de diseño de sitios web y propietaria de una pequeña empresa. Paula cria a sus dos hijas, Isabel y Amelia, en Severna Park.
DEBATE UPDATE: SOBHANI CAN ATTEND IF THERE IS PUBLIC INTEREST - NBC News reports that Democrat Ben Cardin and Republican Dan Bongino are willing to invite independent Rob Sobhani to candidate debates, but only "if there is enough public interest." We previously reported that Sobhani felt he should be included after a new poll showed him tied with Bongino. Watch the news clip below:
UPDATE: Rob Sobhani is now using these tied poll results to argue that he should be included in debates between Sen. Ben Cardin and Dan Bongino. It sounds like Bongino doesn't want him to attend, though. The Associated Press reported on the news (via The Washington Post - excerpt below):
ASSOCIATED PRESS: An independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Maryland is renewing his call to be included in debates between Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin and Republican challenger Dan Bongino. In asking to join the two major-party candidates in their debates, independent Rob Sobhani is citing recent poll results that show he is as competitive as Bongino....
POLL RESULTS DEMONSTRATE WEAK REPUBLICAN BRAND IN MARYLAND
BACKGROUND: Independent U.S. Senate candidate Rob Sobhani appears to have doomed Republican Dan Bongino's already struggling campaign for Democrat Ben Cardin's seat. Moreover, the GOP brand in Maryland appears to be extremely weak.
Maryland Reporter today highlighted a new poll from Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies surveying voter opinion on several contested races in the Free State. We'll soon discuss some of the latest numbers on the heated ballot questions, but for now Maryland Juice finds the poll results on Maryland's U.S. Senate race the most interesting. Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin's biggest re-election competition comes from GOP nominee Dan Bongino and wealthy independent candidate Rob Sobhani (a former Republican candidate). We previously reported that Sobhani was spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television advertising throughout Maryland. Gonzales' poll today is the first measure of the impact of that spending, and the results show how weak the Republican brand is in Maryland.
BEN CARDIN WAY AHEAD IN SENATE RACE // TIE FOR 2ND PLACE - First, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see that Sen. Ben Cardin is way ahead of his competition in the U.S. Senate race. Gonzales reported the following results today (excerpt below via Maryland Reporter):
A NEW SENATE CANDIDATE IN MARYLAND: News outlets are buzzing about a new competitor for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Ben Cardin and being sought by Republican challenger Dan Bongino. WBAL reports that a businessman has gathered over 77,000 signatures and will appear on the Maryland ballot as an independent (excerpt below):
WBAL: A Potomac businessman and former professor of political economy at Georgetown University has launched a run for U.S. Senate in Maryland.
Rob Sobhani submitted 77,000 signatures to the Maryland State Board of Elections and has been certified to run as an independent for the seat now held by Democrat Ben Cardin.
"I'm running as an independent, because I think our political system is broken, and both political parties have let the American people down," Sobhani told WBAL News.
He is the CEO of Caspian Group Holdings which has holdings in energy, publishing and technology, according to the company website....
$700,000 TELEVISION AD BUY FOR ROB SOBHANI? - Notably, yesterday the Cardin campaign sent out a fundraising solicitation from Sen. Barbara Mikulski which noted:
BARBARA MIKULSKI: I'm at the convention and just heard news I wanted to share right away: an independent candidate for Senate in Maryland has dropped more than $700,000 on TV ads that began airing yesterday.
With potential attacks coming from a Tea Party Super PAC, and now this, we could see a lot of false charges leveled at Ben.
Sobhani's website (www.sobhaniformaryland.com) provides his television ad, which you can see below. If Cardin's campaign is right, this ad and others, may appear with decent frequency in parts of Maryland:
